Prezentace aplikace PowerPoint

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SOFI Czech Republic Tentative outcomes
Pavel Novácek Petr Kladivo Jan Machácek Jirí
Teichmann
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Aims

• Calculation of simple regional SOFI (14 regions
  in the Czech Republic)
• Calculation of complex baseline SOFI as well as
  partial SOFIs for the Czech Republic (demography,
  social, economy, environmental)
• Analysis of regional differences - period 2001 -
  2010
• Classification of regions according to selected
  criteria

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Methods

• Calculation of simple SOFI (2001-2010), all
  variables have equal weight (1)všechny promenné
  mají stejnou váhu, SOFI calculated also for each
  of 14 regions within Czech Republic, Real Time
  Delphi will be done later (probably autumn 2012)

Variables
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First results

• thematic SOFI CR 2001-2010

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Future Oriented Thinking Index (FOTI)

• Why are the poor poor and the rich are rich?
• The answer might lie somewhere else other than in
  the known theories of development.
• There are three basic guidelines that seek
  explanation
• a) dependence theory,
• b) the influence of geographical and
  environmental factors
• c) culturological approach

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Future Oriented Thinking Index (FOTI)

• Maybe every development theory has some truth in
  itself, but what we need is to create some
  inventive synthesis.
• Perhaps future-oriented thinking it the principal
  key to prosperity and success.
• If future oriented thinking is important factor
  to prosperity and success, then we need
  instrument how to measure it the Future
  Oriented Thinking Index (FOTI).

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Future Oriented Thinking Index (FOTI)

• Max Weber pointed to the Protestant ethic and its
  influence on the development of capitalism in
  Europe and North America.
• The postponement of current consumption, savings,
  investment, hard work, all with the vision of
  Gods salvation after this life that is a
  typical example of future-oriented thinking which
  determines our current behavior and actions.
• Therefore it is desirable to formulate a Future
  Oriented Thinking Index (FOTI), which would
  complement such indexes as GDP, HDI, SOFI and
  others.

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Future Oriented Thinking Index (FOTI)

• FOTI is by methodological approach close to the
  SOFI developed by Theodore J. Gordon and the
  Millennium Project.
• But FOTI should focus more on identyfying how
  people are able to take into account future
  challenges and behave according to them, less on
  state of the future (measuring whether
  situation will improve or deteriorate).
• Tentatively 23 indicators are proposed to
  calculate FOTI.

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FOTI tentative proposal of indicators

• Education
• Public expenditures on higher education
• Percentage of households connected to internet
• Research expenditures

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FOTI tentative proposal of indicators

• Health
• Public expenditures for health prevention
• Consumption of alcohol, cigarettes and drugs
• Percentage of overweight people in society

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FOTI tentative proposal of indicators

• Economy
• Income distribution GINI Index
• Households savings
• Values of external debt
• Values of inherent debt
• Total debt service
• Internal debt of country expresssed as degree of
  neglected infrastructure (roads, buildings,)
• Official development assistance (ODA) expenditures

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FOTI tentative proposal of indicators

• Environment
• Expenditures to renewable energy resources and
  into energy savings
• Expenditures of households to buy ecological food
• Recycling ( of recycled paper, alluminium etc.)
• Ratio of total number of cars and bicycles in
  country
• CO2 emissions
• Percentage of nationally protected areas

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FOTI tentative proposal of indicators

• Other
• People voting in elections
• Percentage of religious people actively
  practicing their religion
• Ratio of households expenditures for food and for
  culture
• Number of accepted patents in one year

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FOTI tentative proposal of indicators

• Additional indicators were proposed by two MP
  members as first feedback
• Per capita cell phone
• Per capita number of servers
• Price of high speed connection
• Doctors per 100 000 people
• Scientists per capita
• Futures courses per capita
• Think tanks per capita
• Percent government budget for long-range planning
• Subscriptions per capita to futurists magazines
• Number of hits on Google in search of the country
  and the term future country x
• Websites with the name future in it per capita

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FOTI next steps

• Next step should be to select final list of
  indicators.
• All data should be publicly accessible sources.
• The overall index then should be calculated for
  individual countries as an arithmetical average
  of all selected variables (individual indicators)

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Polish Subnode

• Translation of SOF 2011 Executive Summary into
  Polish
• Spreading the word Distribution of the Polish
  translation of SOF 2011 Executive Summary among
  Polish entrepreneurs, government officials and
  scientists
• Introducing SOFI methodology to the Polish Club
  of Rome and Polish Academy of Sciences
• Cooperation with Economic University of Cracow in
  the area of futures studies and technology
  foresight
• Cooperation with University of Warsaw the first
  ever Polish course in humanities through futures
  studies will be taught starting October 2012

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Polish Subnode

• Launching www.ptsp.pl a futurology and
  foresight oriented Web portal created in a
  cooperation with the Polish Futures Studies
  Society. It is quickly rising in popularity in
  Poland and becoming an important reference for
  Polish internet users. Its development is
  threefold
• News section, presenting current, punctual
  information
• Weekly topics reviews, comments, reports
• A growing volume of general futuresresources,
  translated by authorscourtesy from original
  languages

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Slovak Subnode

• International Colloquium Designing the Future in
  Europe 2011 (October, Prague) Civic
  Futurological Society
• Conference Global Existencial Risks 2011 (30.
  November 1. December 2012, Bratislava) Slovak
  Society for Environment
• International Conference 40 Years of Limits to
  Growth (March 2012, Bratislava) Slovak
  Association for the Club of Rome
• Seminar Gunter Pauli Blue Economy (May 2012,
  Bratislava) Slovak Association for the Club of
  Rome
• Seminar Conscious Evolution and Creative Design
  of Syntropic Economic Theory (March 2012, Prague)
  Civic Futurological Society
• Seminar From Limits to Growth to Blue Economy
  Forty Years of Publishing Reports to the Club of
  Rome (June 2012, Prague) Civic Futurological
  Society

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Slovak Subnode scheduled activities

• Conference Global Existencial Risks 2012
  (November, Bratislava) Slovak Society for
  Environment
• International Colloquium Designing Future in
  Europe 2013 (Prague) Civic Futurological
  Society
• International Conference Global Problems, Local
  Solutions 2013 (Bratislava) Slovak Association
  for the Club of Rome

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Thank you for your attention

• Pavel Novácek
• Central European Node
• pavel.novacek_at_upol.cz