Economics and science of global climate disruption

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Economics and science of global climate
disruption

• Philip Mote, PhD, State Climatologist
• Climate Impacts Group
• Center for Science in the Earth System
• Joint Institute for the Atmosphere and Oceans
• University of Washington

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Frameworks

• Science complex problem, worrisome uncertainties
• Economics cost-benefit analysis
• Fossil fuel industry action is a threat
• Politics long-term problems are losers
• Environmentalists huge problem, but must resort
  to scare tactics to motivate

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Facts beyond dispute

• Certain greenhouse gases warm the Earth (H2O,
  CO2, CH4, N2O,)
• Human activities have increased the
  concentrations of the major greenhouse gases
• There is considerable evidence that Earth has
  warmed in the last 100 years

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Spinning the impacts

• Climate change will be all good
• plants grow better with more CO2
• cold-related deaths will decrease
• Climate change will be all bad
• all kinds of extreme weather are increasing
• Antarctic ice sheet could slide into the ocean
• The facts climate change will be bad for some,
  good for others. On balance more bad, with no
  way to transfer benefits from gainers to losers

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Estimating costs and benefits

• Costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions
• How fast?
• How far?
• How intelligently?
• Costs of damage from climate disruption
• Which metrics?
• What assumptions about climate disruption?
• Troublesome aspects
• discount rate
• externalities
• low-probability high-risk outcomes

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Provisions of Kyoto Protocol

• Binding emissions targets for developed nations
• European Union - 8 below 1990 emissions
• U.S.- 7
• Japan - 6
• Emissions targets to be reached over a 5 year
  commitment period (average over 2008-2012)
• Six major greenhouse gases included
• Carbon sequestration (e.g., forests) and
  emissions trading agreed to in principle
• Europe, Japan, Canada have ratified US has
  withdrawn

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Costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions

• Which ones matter?
• Where do they come from?
• How much would it cost to reduce them?

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Enhanced greenhouse effect
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Where do greenhouse gases come from?

• CO2 burning fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural
  gas) to provide energy
• CH4 anoxic decay in rice paddies, ruminants,
  landfills, swampy or boggy land
• CFCs refrigerants, propellants, cleansers no
  longer produced (yay!)
• Ozone (O3) urban pollution
• N2O fertilizers

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Cumulative benefit of reductions
Buildings, industry
Transportation
Electricity generation
Greenhouse gas reduction
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Cost of Implementing Kyoto Protocol

• Most studies estimate costs to developed
  countries of implementing Kyoto at
• 0.2 to 2 of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) without
  emissions trading
• 0.1 to 1 of GDP with full trading
• For perspective defense spending 3.5 GDP,
  entitlements 12

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Scare tactics 4 GDP

• For worst-case scenario, economic modeling
  assumes
• no alternatives to fossil fuels
• no other benefits (e.g., reduced air pollution)
• carbon taxes will not be used to reduce other
  taxes like social security
• reductions all happen domestically
• In other words, do it dumb
• For perspective defense spending 3.5 GDP,
  entitlements 12

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Clean Air Act amendments (1990)
Source The Tradeoff Myth, by Eban Goodstein
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Costs of not reducing greenhouse gas emissions

• Which metrics?
• Market costs
• Lives lost
• Species lost (or, more broadly, disruption of
  ecosystem services)
• Changes in distribution of costs and benefits
• Changes in quality of life
• What assumptions about climate disruption?
• Rate of change
• Extreme events
• Unforeseen changes

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Estimates of costs of climate change

• 0.5 to 1.5 of Gross Domestic Product for US,
  2050
• 4 Gross World Product (Nordhaus 1994)
• Ecosystem services
• Intergenerational equity are discount rates
  fair?
• Northwest costs 30MaF x 40/aF 1.2b from
  snowpack alone (Eban Goodstein)

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Costs and benefits of stopping climate change

• Costs
• Higher energy prices
• Reduced consumption
• Many lost jobs (coal, auto, oil industries)

• Benefits
• Reduced air pollution
• Avoided damages
• Many new jobs (efficiency, renewable energy)

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Science of climate change

• Thousands of peer-reviewed scientific papers
  published
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
  summarizes papers
• Major reports in 1990, 1996, 2001
• Conclusions
• An increasing body of observations gives a
  collective picture of a warming world and other
  changes in the climate system.
• There is new and stronger evidence that most of
  the warming observed over the last 50 years is
  attributable to human activities.

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Facts beyond dispute

• Certain greenhouse gases warm the Earth (H2O,
  CO2, CH4, N2O,)
• Human activities have increased the
  concentrations of the major greenhouse gases
• There is considerable evidence that Earth has
  warmed in the last 100 years

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Some evidence that Earth is warming

• Global average surface temperature computed using
  thermometers includes correction for small urban
  heat island effect
• Permafrost, glaciers melting
• Arctic ice thinning
• Frost-free season longer in many places
• Borehole temperatures indicate warming

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Global average temperature
0.8
0.4
degrees Celsius
0
-0.4
-0.8
1860
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
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The South Cascade glacier retreated dramatically
in the 20th century
1928
Courtesy of the USGS glacier group
2000
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Trends in timing of spring snowmelt (1948-2000)
20d later 20d earlier
Courtesy of Mike Dettinger, Iris Stewart, Dan
Cayan
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Some evidence that humans are responsible

• Rate of warming unusual (see next slide)
• Hard to explain as natural (volcanoes, solar,
  ocean)
• Warming of last 30 years consistent with basic
  physics, greenhouse gas changes

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The earth is warming -- abruptly
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Carbon dioxide up 32
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Methane up 150
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Natural Climate Influence
Human Climate Influence
All Climate Influences
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21st century temperature change
IPCC (www.ipcc.ch)
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Temperature change, 2071-2100 minus 1961-1990
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1-5 meters of sea level rise in Bangladesh
John Ray Initiative, UK
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Trends in timing of spring snowmelt (1948-2000)
20 days later 20 days earlier
Courtesy of Mike Dettinger, Iris Stewart, Dan
Cayan
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Trends in April 1 snow water equivalent, 1950-2000
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Snake River at Ice Harbor
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Conclusions

• Climate disruption is already occurring, will
  likely accelerate
• Impacts will be varied difficult new challenges
• Should we put on the brakes? Can we?
  Precautionary principle an ethical approach