Climate Change and Other Global Environmental Changes: Challenges for Science and PolicyMakers

1
Climate Change and Other Global Environmental
Changes Challenges for Science and Policy-Makers

• Robert Watson
• Chief Scientist, World Bank
• ANU
• Canberra, Australia
• September 29, 2003

2
The Development ChallengeWEHAB

• Five development priorities were identified at
  the World Summit on Sustainable Development in
  South Africa
• Water 1.3 billion people live without clean
  water and 2 billion people live without
  sanitation
• Energy 2 billion people live without
  electricity
• Health 1.4 billion people are exposed to
  dangerous levels of outdoor pollution and
  about 2 billion people are exposed to
  dangerous levels of indoor air pollution and
  vector- and water-borne diseases
• Agriculture 800 million people are currently
  malnourished
• Biodiversity Genetic, species and
  ecosystem-level diversity is being lost at an
  unprecedented rate
• 1.2 billion people live on less than 1 per day
  and 2.8 billion people live on less than 2 per
  day

3
Poverty is multi-dimensional and poverty
reduction is threatened by environmental
degradation
Environmental Degradation is a Development Issue
4
The Challenge Sustainable Management of an
Ever-Changing Planet
5
We face pressing environmental challenges

• Every year, 5-6 million people die from
  water-borne diseases and air pollution in
  developing countries
• Land is being being degraded at an unprecedented
  rate
• Biodiversity at the genetic, species and
  ecosystem level is being lost
• Forest cover of the size of Greece is lost
  annually.
• Some 70 of the worlds fisheries are
  over-exploited
• Climate change has emerged as a major threat,
  especially for developing countries

6
Wealth of a Nation

• There are four forms of capital that should be
  taken into account in national accounts
• Built capital
• Human capital
• Natural capital often ignored and hard to
  measure and in many parts of the world is being
  degraded
• Social capital often ignored and hard to measure

7
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8
Underlying Causes of Change

• The primary factors underlying environmental
  degradation include economic growth, broad
  technological changes, demographic shifts and
  governance structures. These can give rise to
• Increased demand for natural resources and energy
  
• Market imperfections, e.g., subsidies that lead
  to the inefficient use of resources and act as a
  barrier to the market penetration of climate
  sound technologies the lack of recognition of
  the true value of natural resources failure to
  appropriate the global values of natural
  resources to the local level and the failure to
  internalize the social costs of environmental
  degradation into the market price of a resource
• Limited availability and transfer of technology,
  inefficient use of technologies, and inadequate
  investment in research and development for the
  technologies of the future

9
Conceptual Framework
10
Human activities have and are causing a loss in
biodiversity (e.g., species loss is 1000 times
background rates) due to

• land use and land cover change
• habitat fragmentation
• diversion of water to intensively managed
  ecosystems and urban systems
• soil and water degradation
• air pollution
• selective exploitation and/or destruction of
  species
• introduction of invasive species
• climate change

11
Climate change will exacerbate the loss of
biodiversity

• The current levels of human impact on
  biodiversity are unprecedented, affecting the
  planet as a whole, and causing large-scale loss
  of biodiversity
• Estimated 10-15 of the worlds species will be
  committed to extinction over next 30 years

For a given ecosystem, functionally diverse
communities are likely to be better able to adapt
to climate change and climate variability than
impoverished ones
12
Freshwater Systems
Agricultural Lands
Coastal Zones
Forest Lands
Arid Lands Grasslands
Biodiversity underlies the goods and services
provided by ecosystems that are crucial for human
survival and well-being.
Provisioning Goods produced or provided by
ecosystems Regulating Benefits obtained from
regulation of ecosystem processes Cultural
Non-material benefits obtained from
ecosystems Supporting Services that maintain
the conditions for life on earth Ecosystem goods
and services have significant economic value,
even if some of these goods and most of the
services are not traded by the market and carry
no price tags to alert society to changes in
their supply or in the condition of the
ecosystems that generate them
13
Ecosystem Services The benefits people obtain
from ecosystems

• Provisioning
• Goods produced or provided by ecosystems
• food
• fresh water
• fuel wood
• fiber
• biochemicals
• genetic resources

• Cultural
• Non-material benefits obtained from ecosystems
• spiritual
• recreational
• aesthetic
• inspirational
• educational
• communal
• symbolic

• Regulating
• Benefits obtained from regulation of ecosystem
  processes
• climate control
• disease control
• flood control
• detoxification

• Supporting
• Services that maintain the conditions for life on
  earth.
• Soil formation
• Nutrient cycling
• Pollination

14
Reverse Loss of Environmental Resources
25. Deforestation



Source Food and A
griculture Organisation


15
Climate Change

16
Human activities have changed the composition of
the atmosphere since the pre- industrial era
primarily due to energy practices and changes in
land-use
17
The Global Carbon CycleUnitsGt C and Gt C y-1
Atmosphere
The KP seeks to reduce total emissions by about
0.3
This is the greenhouse problem
3.3
750
62.3
6.3
Fossil Deposits
About 16,000
1.6
60
Plants
92.3
500
Driven by fossil emissions
Soil
90
2000
and land clearing
Oceans
39,000
But, the oceans and land vegetation are taking up
4.6 Gt C between them - at equilibrium this
would be zero.

18
The Land and Oceans Have Warmed
19
Precipitation Patterns Have Changed
20
Heavy Precipitation Events Have Increased Over
the USA
Implications for the risk of the incidence of
floods and droughts
21
Sea Levels Have Risen
22
Biophysical Systems Have Changed

• Observed regional changes in temperature have
  been associated with observed changes in
  physical, ecological and socio-economic systems
  world-wide, examples include
• non-polar glacier retreat
• reduction in Arctic sea ice extent and thickness
  in summer
• earlier plant flowering and longer growing season
  in Europe
• pole-ward and upward (elevation) migration of
  plants, insects and animals
• earlier bird arrival and egg laying

23
Most of the Observed Warming of the Last 50 Years
is Attributable to Human Activities
24
Projected Concentrations of CO2 During the 21st
Century Are Two to Four Times the Pre-Industrial
Level
25
For 420,000 years the CO2 concentration in the
atmosphere has remained within tight bounds
Projected (2100)
CO2 Concentration (ppmv)
Current (2001)
(BP 1950)
26
Projected Temperatures During the 21st Century
Are Significantly Higher Than at Any Time During
the Last 1000 Years
27
Land Areas Warm More Than the Oceans with the
Greatest Warming at High Latitudes
Annual mean temperature change, 2071 to 2100
relative to 1990 Global Average in 2085 3.1oC
28
Some Areas are Projected to Become Wetter, Others
Drier
Annual Mean Precipitation Change 2071 to 2100
Relative to 1990
29
Extreme Weather Events are Projected to
Increase Impact on Agriculture

• higher maximum temperatures, hot days and heat
  waves over nearly all land areas (very likely) gtgt
  increased stress on livestock and risk to a
  number of crops
• higher minimum temperatures, fewer cold days,
  frost days and cold spells over nearly all land
  areas (very likely) gtgt extended range and
  activity of some pest and disease vectors
• more intense precipitation events over many areas
  (very likely) gtgt increased soil erosion
• increased summer drying over most mid-latitude
  continental interiors and associated risk of
  drought (likely) gtgt decreased crop yields and
  water quantity, and increased risk of forest
  fires
• increase in tropical cyclone peak wind intensity,
  mean and peak precipitation intensities (likely)
  gtgt increased damage to coastal ecosystems, e.g.,
  coral reefs and mangroves
• intensified floods and droughts associated with
  El-Nino events in many regions (likely) gtgt
  decreased agricultural and rangeland productivity
  in drought and flood prone areas

30
More hot days and heat waves
31
Sea Levels are Projected to Increase and the
Themohaline Circulation Could be Disrupted by
Climate Change
An increase in sea level by 0.08 to 0.88m and
North Atlantic waters projected to become warmer
and less saline
32
Potential Climate Change Impacts
Some projected beneficial effects of climate
change, but predominantly adverse, especially for
developing countries
33
Climate Change and WEHAB

• Human-induced climate change is projected to
• W Decrease water availability and water quality
  in many arid- and semi-arid regions increased
  risk of floods and droughts in many regions
• E Decrease the reliability of hydropower in
  some regions
• H Increase the incidence of vector- (e.g.,
  malaria and dengue) and water-borne (e.g.,
  cholera) diseases, as well as heat stress
  mortality
• A Decrease agricultural productivity for almost
  any warming in the tropics and sub-tropics and
  adversely impact fisheries
• B Adversely effect ecological systems, especially
  coral reefs, and exacerbate the loss of
  biodiversity

34
Water Stress will Increase Independent of Climate
Change
35
Water Services
Climate change is projected to decrease water
availability in many arid- and semi-arid regions
Population facing water scarcity will more than
double over the next 30 years

• One third of the worlds population is now
  subject to water scarcity

36
Run-off is projected to change many areas in
the sub-tropics and mid-latitudes become drier
37
El-Nino conditions lead to floods and droughts
throughout the tropics and sub-tropics
The climate is projected to become more El-Nino
like
C h a l l e n g e s o f a C h a n g i
n g E a r t h J u l y 2 0 0 1

38
Impact of El-Nino in the Northern Hemisphere
Winter
39
Zimbabwes Rainfall Record 1980-1993
Note the year to year variability and the
long-term downward trend
40
Zimbabwe drought (1991/2) 45 decline in
agricultural production, 11 decline in GDP, 62
decline in stock market, 9 decline in
manufacturing output, 15 reduction in power
generation
41
Source IRI (International Research Institute
for Climate PredictionExperimental Climate
Forecast Division
42

• Food production needs to double to meet the needs
  of an additional 3 billion people in the next 30
  years

Climate change is projected to decrease
agricultural productivity in the tropics and
sub-tropics for almost any amount of warming and
adversely impact on fisheries
43
Climate Change and Crop Yields
Crop yields are projected to decrease throughout
the tropics and sub-tropics, but to increase at
mid- and high latitudes, at least for modest
increases in temperature. Percentage change in
average crop yields for the IS 92a climate change
scenario. Effects of CO2 fertilization and some
adaptation are taken into account, but increased
incidence of pests is not. Crops modeled are
wheat, maize and rice (2020s, 2050s and 2080s).
44

• Wood fuel is the only source of fuel for one
  third of the worlds population

Wood demand will double in next 50 years
Climate change is projected to increase forest
productivity, but forest management will become
more difficult, due to an increase in pests and
fires
45
Adaptation

• The agricultural and water resource sectors are
  vulnerable to natural climate variability, e.g.,
  floods and droughts associated with ENSO events
• Identify technologies, practices and policies
  that can reduce the vulnerability of sectors to
  natural climate variability and can increase
  resilience to long-term climate change
• incorporate modern scientific forecasts of ENSO
  events into sector management decisions
• integrated multi-sector watershed management and
  appropriate water pricing policies
• elimination of inappropriate agricultural
  subsidies

46
Climate Change - Effect on Human
HealthIncreased incidence of heat stress
mortality, and the number of people exposed to
vector-borne diseases, such as malaria and dengue
and water-borne diseases such as cholera,
especially in the tropics and sub-tropics
Reduced winter mortality in mid- and
high-latitudes
47
Potential Loss of Land in Bangladesh Due to a 1m
rise in Sea Level
Bangladesh is projected to lose about 17 of its
land area with a sea level rise of one meter -
very difficult to adapt due to lack of adaptive
capacity.
48
State of Policy Formulation for Climate
Change
49
What is Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference with
the Climate System?

• Deciding what constitutes dangerous
  anthropogenic interference to the climate system
  is a value judgment determined through
  socio-political processes informed by scientific,
  technical and socio-economic information
• The basis for determining what constitutes
  dangerous anthropogenic interference varies by
  region and sector and depends upon
• the impacts of climate change, which depends on
  the rate and magnitude of climate change, and
• adaptive and mitigative capacity

50
The Kyoto Protocol

• All governments, except the US, have approved a
  number of core elements
• The flexibility mechanisms carbon trading
• Land-use, land-use change and forestry
  activities
• Funding for developing countries
• The US stated that the Kyoto Protocol was flawed
  policy because it was neither fair nor effective
  and not in the best interests of the US
• scientific uncertainties Article 3
  (precautionary principle)
• high compliance costs inconsistent with IPCC
• ineffective without the participation of the
  large developing countries

51
Differentiated Obligations

• It has argued by the US that the Kyoto Protocol
  is neither fair nor effective because developing
  countries are not obligated to reduce their
  emissions, i.e., its not in the self-interest of
  the US energy companies
• Fairness - This is an equity issue - the Parties
  to the Kyoto Protocol will have to decide what is
  fair and equitable, recognizing that
• about 80 of the total anthropogenic emissions
  of greenhouse gases have been emitted from
  industrialized countries (US is currently about
  25 of the global emissions 36 of Annex I
  emissions)
• per capita emissions in industrialized countries
  far exceed those from developing countries
• developing countries do not have the financial,
  technological and institutional capability of
  industrialized countries to address the issue
  and
• increased use of energy is essential for poverty
  alleviation
• Effectiveness - Long-term stabilization of the
  atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases
  cannot be achieved without global reductions,
  hence the issue is whom should do what in the
  short-term recognizing the long-term challenge

52
Annex I and Non-Annex I Fossil Fuel Carbon
Emissions BAU
53
Developed Country Per capita Emissions far Exceed
Developing Country Per Capita Emissions
54
The Kyoto ProtocolImplications of
non-ratification by the US

• Ratification is viable without US, i.e., 55
  countries and 55 of industrialized country
  emissions Europe, Japan and Canada have
  ratified and are providing moral and political
  leadership the Russian Federation have
  committed to ratification - the US and
  Australia are isolated in refusing to ratify the
  Kyoto Protocol
• Possible parallel activities by the US
• US Administration has committed to a decrease of
  18 in GHG per unit of GDP by 2010 (equivalent to
  an increase of 25-30 above 1990 levels by 2010)
• Congress may act to to either legislate emissions
  reductions or promote voluntary actions by
  industry
• Significant voluntary industry and State (e.g.,
  California and possibly New York) activities to
  reduce emissions

55
Stabilization of atmospheric concentrations of
CO2 will require emissions reductions globally
These dates are associated with CO2 stabilization
alone stabilization of CO2 equivalent
concentrations need to occur even earlier because
of the contribution of the non- CO2 greenhouse
gases
56
There is a wide band of uncertainty in the amount
of warming that would result from any stabilised
concentration of greenhouse gases

• Temperature change relative to 1990 (C)

Temperature change relative to 1990 (C )
10
10
9
9
Temperature change at equilibrium
8
8
Temperature change in the year 2100
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
450
550
650
750
850
950
1000
450
550
650
750
850
950
1000
Eventual CO2 stabilisation level (ppm)
Eventual CO2 stabilisation level (ppm)
57
Technologies and Policies Exist to
Reduce GHG Emissions

• Stabilization will require emissions reductions
  in all regions, i.e., Annex I countries cannot
  achieve stabilization alone
• Significant technical progress has been made in
  the last 5 years and at a faster rate than
  expected (wind turbines, hybrid engine cars, fuel
  cell technology, underground carbon dioxide
  storage)
• Forests, agricultural lands and other terrestrial
  ecosystems offer significant carbon sequestration
  potential globally - up to 100GtC over the next
  50 yrs
• Half of the projected increase in global
  emissions between now and 2020 could be reduced
  with direct benefits (negative costs), while the
  other half at less than 100 tC - realizing these
  reductions involves supporting policies/overcoming
  barriers, increased RD, effective technology
  transfer
• Without international carbon trading, Annex B
  costs of complying with the Kyoto Protocol, range
  from 0.2 - 2, where-as with full Annex B trading
  costs are reduced to 0.1 - 1. Costs could
  further reduced with use of sinks, the CDM and
  inclusion of other GHGs

58
Trading Reduces Projected GDP Losses and the
Marginal Costs of Compliance with the Kyoto
Targets in Annex I CountriesWith trading the
marginal costs are 15-135 tC will be even
lower with CDM, and the inclusion of other GHGs
and sinks Cost of inaction, globally, could be
several percent of GDP highest in developing
countries
59
Link Local and Global Objectives

• Build on synergies between local and global
  environmental improvements
• energy efficiency and renewable energy
• Facilitate financial and technology transfer to
  developing countries
• Facilitate market solutions
• WB Prototype Carbon Fund
• Focus on adaptation to climate change
• Assess vulnerability

60
Pollution in Selected Cities (TSP)
Source OECD Environmental data 1995, WRI China
tables 1995, Central Pollution Control Board,
Delhi. Ambient Air Quality Status and
Statistics, 1993 and 1994, Urban Air Pollution
in Megacities of the World, WHO/UNEP, 1992, EPA,
AIRS database.
61
Health Costs (TSP in China)
Source Clear Water, Blue Skies Chinas
Environment in the New Century, World Bank, 1997.
62
Voluntary Agreements by the Private
Sector

• Some examples of types of commitment
• ABB 1 per year reduction in GHG
  emissions between 1998 and 2005 plant
  efficiency targets and end-product efficiency
  targets
• Alcao 25 reduction in emissions by 2010
• Dupont 65 reduction in GHG emissions by
  2010 hold energy use constant source 10
  of electricity from renewables by 2010
• IBM Improve energy efficiency and reduce
  GHG emissions by 4 annually reduce PCF
  emissions by 40 per unit of production by
  2002
• Ford Improve fuel efficiency of SBUVs by
  25 by 2005 reduce GHG emissions from
  European fleet by 25 by 2005
• Shell 10 reduction in GHG emissions by
  2002 relative to1990 energy targets per
  tonne of product
• Toyota 10 reduction in GHG emissions by
  2010
• Toyota (US) Reduce energy use per unit of
  production by 15

63
Conclusions

• The Earths climate is changing due to human
  activities
• Industrialized countries have caused the
  problem, but developing countries and poor people
  are the most vulnerable
• The actions of todays generation will profoundly
  effect the Earth inherited by our children and
  future generations
• There are cost-effective and equitable solutions,
  but political will and moral leadership is needed
  
• Mitigation and adaptation activities will be
  needed
• Innovative public-private partnerships and
  technology transfer are needed
• Market reform is needed reduction of energy
  subsidies and internalization of local/regional
  externalities (i.e., pollution costs)
• Increased public and private sector funding for
  energy ST

64
Conclusions

• We need Governments that recognize
• the importance of ST
• that there is no dichotomy between economic
  growth and environmental protection
• that addressing climate change provides economic
  opportunities to restructure and make the energy
  system more efficient, and
• that the US has a moral obligation to show
  political leadership as the worlds only
  super-power