The Latest Science on Energy Based Solutions for Climate Change

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The Latest Science on Energy Based Solutionsfor
Climate Change

• Professor William Moomaw
• Tufts University
• Earth Day 2004

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Multiple Reasons for Energy Technology and Fuel
Choices

• Effectiveness and appropriateness to task
• Economic cost
• Reliability
• Convenience
• National Security and global political stability
  
• Job creation
• Human health and safety
• Environmental Consequences including climate
  change

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Sources of Heat Trapping Gases

• Carbon dioxide from fossil fuel burning, iron,
  aluminum, ammonia and cement
• Methane from agriculture (livestock and rice),
  waste disposal (landfills and sewage treatment),
  leakage of natural gas
• Nitrous oxide from nitrogen fertilizer and
  industrial production of nylon and nitric acid
• Deforestation, forest fires and loss of carbon
  from agricultural soils
• Fires in forests, coal mines and from gas flaring

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Growth in Carbon Dioxide from Fossil Fuel
Combustion
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Major Indicators of Current Climate Change

• Average global temperature has risen by 1o F in
  past 100 years with high latitude increases of 4o
  F
• Seasons in the US and Europe have shifted by one
  week in past 50 years
• Precipitation patterns are changing
• Species are migrating higher and towards the
  poles

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• Sea level has risen by 6-8 in the past century
  and is proceeding at a rate of more than an inch
  a decade
• More than 95 of worlds glaciers are retreating
• Polar sea ice has thinned by more than 40 in 30
  years, and coastal ice shelves are disintegrating
• Permafrost is warming and melting rapidly,
  destroying buildings and roads, and could disrupt
  Alaska oil pipeline

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How Can We Assess Technologies?

• Many technologies have been evaluated under
  controlled conditions by industry, government and
  university researchers for their performance,
  cost and effectiveness in reducing heat trapping
  gases and other pollutants.
• These studies have been reviewed by independent
  energy and engineering experts, and additional
  tests have been conducted.

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Identify Emissions by Sector 1995 (IPCC)

• Global share Annual growth
• Building sector 31 (1.0/year)
• Transport sector 22 (2.4/year)
• Industrial sector 43 (0.4/year)
• Agricultural sector 4 (0.6/year)
• Electric power 31 for generation
• Note this is included in first four categories

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Basic Strategies

• Make existing emitting technologies more
  efficient in the use and production of energy
• Change processes to reduce non-energy emissions
  from industry and agriculture
• Shift to new technologies and fuels that emit
  little or no heat trapping gases
• Sequester carbon dioxide in forests, soils or
  geological reservoirs

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Identify Effective Strategies

• Reduce emissions of heat trapping gases by
  utilizing technologies that are more efficient
• Shift standards and incentives to construct
  buildings that use 30-70 less energy for heating
  and cooling
• Purchase appliances that use 10-80 less energy

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Identify Effective Strategies

• Build electric power generating systems that use
  30 less fuel, or which utilize currently wasted
  heat from coal and natural gas power plants for
  heating and cooling
• Buy vehicles that get 50 to 100 more miles per
  gallon
• Shift to cost effective industrial processes that
  use 50 less energy and release much less process
  gases
• Improve agriculture and waste management
  practices

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Buildings (31) (potential reductions 30-70)

• Orientation to optimize use of sun and wind for
  passive heating, cooling and ventilation
• Effective insulation to reduce need for excess
  heating or cooling
• Efficient, well located windows that reduce need
  for artificial lighting, and maintain appropriate
  temperatures in all seasons
• Controlled ventilation with heat recovery
• Cost of saving 40 of energy use is one-fifth the
  cost of supplying that energy

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Where do we spend on our home energy bills?
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Energy Star Refrigerators I

• Replacing a 10-year old refrigerator bought in
  1990 with a new ENERGY STAR qualified model would
  save enough energy to light the average household
  for over three months and (prevent) over 300
  pounds of pollution each year.
• Improving energy efficiency standards have driven
  this efficiency improvement trend.

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Energy Star Refrigerators II

• Electricity cost savings are 120 per year, while
  additional purchase price is 100-200.
• Economic payback is eight years or less.
• Purchase stimulates the economy and create jobs.
• Provides air pollution and global warming
  benefits through lower energy use
• Protects ozone layer by replacing CFCs.

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Appliance Efficiency Improvement
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Appliance Efficiency Information
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Efficient Appliances -Washers

• Most efficient clothes washer uses 70 less
  electricity than does least efficient available.
• Spins clothes drier, thereby reducing drier time
  and energy use
• It uses 85 less water, saving 16,000 gallons per
  year
• It gets clothes cleaner
• It costs twice as much

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Transportation(22)(potential reductions
50-100)

• Transportation accounts for 22 of global carbon
  dioxide emissions and 33 of US emissions.
• It is the fastest growing sector in terms of
  emissions.
• Transportation depends on petroleum for 97 of
  its fuel

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History of Vehicle Efficiency Gains

• Following the oil shocks, US autos doubled
  efficiency from 13.5 mpg to 27.5 mpg in 10 years.
• Air pollution emissions dropped by 90, and
  vehicles are available today that have reduced
  pollution by 99.
• Safety increased through improved crash
  resistance, seat belts and air bags.
• Power and performance increased

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Potential for Future Gains

• Current technologies could increase auto light
  truck fuel efficiency in the near term by 50-100
  without changing weight, size or performance.
• Hybrid gasoline electric
• Continuously variable transmission
• Improved tires and aerodynamics
• Shift from gasoline to new diesel for 25
  improvement
• Weight reductions could bring about additional
  savings by a similar, additional factor.
• Heavy trucks could increase efficiency 60
• Fuel cells are low emitting, but in 10 yrs.

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Industrial Emissions (43)(potential reductions
of 10-65)

• Industry accounts for 43 of all carbon dioxide
  emissions, but emissions are falling by 0.8 per
  year in industrial countries.
• In the industrial world, carbon dioxide from
  industry decreased by 9 between 1971 and 1995,
  even though energy use rose 17 and industrial
  output doubled.
• Energy and CO2 emissions are falling in China by
  similar amounts as inefficient, uncompetitive
  industries are replaced.

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Identify Fuel and Technology Switching Strategies

• Shift from high to low carbon dioxide emitting
  fuels
• COAL ( 1.0x )
• OIL (0.75x)
• NATURAL GAS (0.5x)
• PLANT BASED FUELS ( 0.0 - 0.7x )
• SOLAR, WIND, GEOTHERMAL, AND
• NUCLEAR ( 0.0-0.2)

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Relative CO2 Emissions to Produce the Same Energy
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Electric Power Production (2000)

• Coal generates 38 of global electricity (55 in
  US) but produces 70 of worlds electric power
  CO2.
• Natural gas generates 18 of global electricity
  and 19 of electric power CO2.
• Oil generates 9 of global electricity and 11 of
  electricity CO2.
• Hydropower, nuclear power and renewable sources
  produce 35 of global electricity and no direct
  CO2.

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owe
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Trends in Electric Power

• Natural gas turbines are 25- 50 more efficient
  than coal based steam and produce only 40 as
  much CO2 per unit of electricity
• Concern over natural gas supply and prices
• Over 90 of proposed new power plants in US are
  gas turbines
• No new large coal or nuclear plants have been
  built in past 10 years and oil is being phased
  out as an electricity generating fuel.
• Deregulation favors low cost power stations such
  as gas over nuclear power

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Wind Generated Electric Power

• Wind is the fastest growing electric power source
  in percentage terms increasing at 25/year.
• Installed wind capacity passed 31,000 MW by end
  of 2002 - three years ahead of predictions.
• Over 20 of electricity in Denmark and parts of
  Germany are now supplied by wind.
• The US had 90 of wind electric capacity in 1990,
  but dropped to third place behind Germany and
  Spain last year.
• Plains states and off-shore wind parks have great
  potential for production of wind electricity at a
  cost of 4cents/kwh which is competitive with
  clean coal.

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World Electricity Generation by Type 2000
(Worldwatch Inst.)
Hydro
Fossil Fuels
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Global Trends in Energy 1992-2002
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Agriculturally Based Fuels

• Develop a crop based liquid transportation fuels
  program to produce alcohol and biodiesel from
  crops grown in the US and from sugar cane in
  tropical countries to reduce our dependence on
  oil based fuels.
• Provide tradable credits for adding carbon to
  soils and forests

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Multiple Benefits of Biofuels

• Creates jobs, lowers dependence on unstable
  regions of the world for petroleum, promotes
  trade, adds value to US economy, increases farm
  incomes, reduces need for farm subsidies - and
  lowers CO2 emissions.

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An Integrated Economic Rural Development Strategy

• Develop large wind turbine generation capacity
  on agricultural lands and public or private
  rangelands in Great Plains states - Also continue
  to produce grain and cattle.
• Develop international alcohol auto fuel from
  sugar cane for tropical developing countries

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Economic Implications of Emissions Reductions

• The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has
  verified hundreds of currently existing
  technologies and measures capable of slowing and
  reversing the rise in greenhouse gases.
• The technological potential exists to reduce
  carbon dioxide emissions by nearly 30 world-wide
  by 2010.
• Half of these reductions could be achieved at a
  savings or zero cost, the remainder would cost
  zero to the equivalent of 25 cents/gal. gasoline.
  

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Addressing Climate Change and Reducing Dependence
on Geopolitically Vulnerable Oil

• Alternatives to fossil fuels can increase
  reliability and decrease our vulnerability to
  disruption from political instability, accidents,
  natural disasters and terrorist attacks.
• Less oil dependence reduces global tensions
• Distribution of Conventional Global Oil Reserves
• U.S. 4
• Canada 3
• Russia FSU 6
• Persian Gulf 66
• Other (Nigeria, Venezuela, etc) 21

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Meeting Climate, Security and Economic Goals

• It is possible to introduce new technology in the
  natural replacement cycle of capital stock such
  as cars, appliances, buildings and power plants
  that substantially reduce heat trapping gas
  emissions.
• Choices can be made that increase national
  security and global political stability, provide
  jobs and improve the economy of the United States.

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National Energy Policy Initiative

• In March 2002,a non-partisan, independent group
  of energy experts released a report on Capitol
  Hill.
• They suggested that America could meet our
  long-term energy and national security goals
  while addressing climate change by developing
  policies supportive of new technologies and
  practices.
• The plan has been endorsed by former members of
  the Carter, Reagan, first Bush and Clinton
  administrations along with 75 additional energy
  experts from industry and universities.
• http//www.nepinitiative.org/

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More Information

• To find out more
• www.tufts.edu/tci
• tci_at_tufts.edu
• http//www.ipcc.ch
• http//www.nepinitiative.org