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Human Induced Climate Change

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... (Intergovermental Panel for Climate Change) Global Carbon Cycle ... and reduce the realizable potential Removal of barriers during capital stock turnover ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Human Induced Climate Change


1
Human Induced Climate Change
  • Brief visit of the global Carbon Cycle
  • IPCC (Intergovermental Panel for Climate Change)

2
Global Carbon Cycle
  • Ocean is the largest reservoir
  • Ocean has very large exchange with atmosphere
  • Missing 2 GT of C

3
IPCC Website
  • http//www.ipcc.ch

4
Structure of IPCC 1997 - 2001
United Nations
  • WMO

UNEP
COP/FCCC
Subsidiary bodies of the framework convention on
climate change
World Climate Programme IGBP Global Climate
Observing system etc
IPCC
IPCC Bureau
WGII Impacts and adaptation
WGI Science
WGIII Mitigation
Lead Authors, Contributors, Reviewers
5
Climate Change 2001 The Scientific BasisWGI
contribution to IPCC Third Assessment Report
  • Summary for Policymakers (SPM)
  • Drafted by a team of 59
  • Approved sentence by sentence
  • by WGI plenary (99 Governments and 45 scientists)

14 chapters 881 pages 120 Lead Authors 515
Contributing Authors 4621 References quoted
6
(No Transcript)
7
IPCC Synthesis ReportPart I
  • Overview
  • How to address the issue of dangerous
    anthropogenic perturbation to the climate system
  • The relationship between climate change and
    development, equity and sustainability
  • Robert Watson

8
Mother Earth -- Our Home It is has water, oxygen
and a hospitable climate
9
World Population 6,056,528,577
The Challenge Sustainable Management of an
Ever-Changing Planet
10
The Challenge Sustainable Energy
11
The Challenge Food Security
12
  • Food production needs to double to meet the needs
    of an additional 3 billion people in the next 30
    years

Climate change is projected to decrease
agricultural productivity in the tropics and
sub-tropics for almost any amount of warming
13
The Challenge Sustainable Forestry
14
  • Wood fuel is the only source of fuel for one
    third of the worlds population

Wood demand will double in next 50 years
Climate change is projected to increase forest
productivity, but forest management will become
more difficult, due to an increase in pests and
fires
15
The Challenge Water Security
16
Water Services
Climate change is projected to decrease water
availability in many arid- and semi-arid regions
Population facing water scarcity will more than
double over the next 30 years
  • One third of the worlds population is now
    subject to water scarcity

17
The Challenge Sustainable Fisheries
18
The Challenge Sustainable use conservation of
biodiversity
19
Estimated 10-15 of the worlds species could
become extinct over the next 30 years
  • Biodiversity underlies all ecological goods and
    services

Climate change will exacerbate the loss of
biodiversity
20
Agricultural Lands
Coastal Zones
Forest Lands
Freshwater Systems
Arid Lands Grasslands
Food and Fiber Production Provision of Clean and
Sufficient Water Maintenance of
Biodiversity Maintenance of Human Health Storage
and cycling of Carbon, Nitrogen, Phosphorus
Climate change will affect the ability of
ecological systems to provide a range of
essential ecological goods and services
21
The Challenge Sustainable Management of an
Ever-Changing Planet
22
Key Findings
  • Climate change is not just an environmental
    issue, but a development issue
  • Global and regional changes have been observed in
    the chemical composition of the atmosphere,
    earth's surface temperature, precipitation,
    extreme climatic events, sea level
  • These have caused changes in biological, physical
    and socio-economic systems
  • Most of the observed warming of the past 50 years
    is attributable to human activities
  • Questions 1 2

23
Key Findings
  • Future changes in atmospheric composition and
    climate are inevitable with increases in
    temperature and some extreme events, and regional
    increases and decreases in precipitation, leading
    to an increased risks of floods and droughts
  • There are both beneficial and adverse effects of
    climate change, but the larger the changes and
    rate of change in climate, the more the adverse
    effects predominate with developing countries
    being the most vulnerable
  • Question 3

24
Key Findings
  • Adaptation has the potential to reduce adverse
    effects of climate change, but will not prevent
    all damages
  • Inertia is a widespread characteristic of the
    interacting climate, ecological and
    socio-economic systems which means that the
    impacts may not be observed for decades to
    centuries and mal-adaptations may be implemented
  • Questions 3 5

25
Key Findings
  • Greenhouse gas emissions in the 21st century can
    set in motion large-scale, high-impact,
    non-linear, and potentially abrupt changes in
    physical and biological systems over the coming
    decades to millennia
  • Sustained warming of a few oC over millennia is
    projected to lead to an increase in sea level of
    several meters due to loss of Greenland and
    Antarctic Ice
  • Question 4

26
Key Findings
  • Stabilization of the atmospheric concentration of
    CO2 will require global emissions to decline to
    only a small fraction of current emissions --
    even after stabilization of CO2 concentrations,
    sea level will continue to rise for millennia
  • Stabilization of carbon dioxide at 450ppm and
    1000ppm would result in an equilibrium
    temperature rise of 0.9 to 2.5oC and 2.9 to 7.5oC
    above 1990 levels, respectively. Increases in
    non-CO2 concentrations would increase these
    estimates
  • The lower the level of stabilization of
    greenhouse gas concentrations the greater the
    benefits in terms of avoided damages
  • Question 6

27
Key Findings
  • There are many opportunities, including
    technological options, to reduce near-term
    emissions, but barriers to their deployment
    exist, and cost estimates vary greatly
  • There are substantial opportunities for lowering
    mitigation costs, e.g. by using all greenhouse
    gases, the Kyoto trading mechanisms and sinks
  • On the other hand, costs are under-estimated
    because models assume emissions trading without
    transaction costs and that economies have already
    begun to adjust to meet Kyoto targets
  • Question 7

28
Key Findings
  • Emissions constraints on Annex I countries have
    well-established spill-over effects on
    non-Annex I countries
  • Technology development and diffusion are
    important components of cost-effective
    stabilization
  • The pathway to stabilization and the
    stabilization level itself are key determinants
    of mitigation costs
  • Question 7

29
Key Findings
  • Local, regional and global environmental issues
    are inextricably linked and affect sustainable
    development climate change, loss of
    biodiversity, stratospheric ozone depletion,
    desertification, freshwater availability and air
    quality are all inter-linked
  • The primary factors underlying most environmental
    and socio-economic issues are similar, i.e.,
    economic growth, broad technological changes,
    life-style patterns and demographic shifts
  • Question 8

30
Key Findings
  • There are synergistic opportunities to
    simultaneously address these issues that enhance
    benefits, reduce costs and more sustainably meet
    human needs
  • The capacity of a country to adapt or mitigate
    can be enhanced when climate policies are
    integrated into national development policies
    economic, social and environmental
  • Question 8

31
What is Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference with
the Climate System?
  • Deciding what constitutes dangerous
    anthropogenic interference to the climate system
    is a value judgment determined through
    socio-political processes informed by scientific,
    technical and socio-economic information
  • The basis for determining what constitutes
    dangerous anthropogenic interference varies by
    region and sector and depends upon
  • the impacts of climate change, which depends on
    the rate and magnitude of climate change, and
  • adaptive and mitigative capacity

32
What is Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference with
the Climate System.
  • Climate change decision-making is a sequential
    process under general uncertainty
  • Climate change is part of the larger challenge of
    sustainable development

33
Climate Change An integrated framework
34
Change Presentation..
35
IPCC Synthesis ReportPart IV
  • Costs of mitigation measures
  • Jayant Sathaye

36
Technologies and policies exist to reduce
short-term (2010-2020) GHG emissions
  • Significant technical progress has been made in
    the last 5 years and at a faster rate than
    expected (wind turbines, elimination of
    industrial by-products, hybrid engine cars, fuel
    cell technology, underground carbon dioxide
    storage)

37
Cost of new technologies have declined
steeply, but costs of conventional technologies
have also declined at a slower rate
10
1
Production costs (EURO1990/kWh)
0.1
0.01
100
10000
1000000
Cumulative Installed Capacity (MW)
Electric technologies, EU 1980-1995, Source IEA
38
Mitigation potential -- 2020 (Cost Range
Negative to 100/t C)
39
Realizing this potential requires overcoming many
barriers
  • Barriers add to the cost of implementation, and
    reduce the realizable potential
  • Removal of barriers during capital stock turnover
    and periods of rapid social change can minimize
    disruption and mitigation costs

40
The cost of compliance increases with lower
stabilization levels
Trillions of US
41
Projected mitigation costs are sensitive to the
assumed emissions baseline
42
IPCC Synthesis ReportPart V
  • Summary and relationship to other environmental
    issues
  • Robert Watson

43
Agricultural practices are affecting the
environment and environmental degradation
threatens food availability
44
Climate change and other environmental issues are
inter-linked
45
Underlying causes of change
  • The primary factors underlying environmental
    degradation include economic growth, broad
    technological changes, demographic shifts and
    governance structures. These can give rise to
  • Increased demand for natural resources and energy
  • Market imperfections, e.g., subsidies that lead
    to the inefficient use of resources and act as a
    barrier to the market penetration of climate
    sound technologies the lack of recognition of
    the true value of natural resources failure to
    appropriate the global values of natural
    resources to the local level and the failure to
    internalize the social costs of environmental
    degradation into the market price of a resource
  • Limited availability and transfer of technology,
    inefficient use of technologies, and inadequate
    investment in research and development for the
    technologies of the future
  • Failure to manage adequately the use of natural
    resources and energy

46
Climate Change is an Integral Element of
Sustainable Development
47
The Challenge Sustainable Management of an
Ever-Changing Planet
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