Great powers fear each other' They regard each other with suspicion, and they worry that war may be

1
Great powers fear each other. They regard each
other with suspicion, and they worry that war may
be in the offing. They anticipate danger. There
is little room for trust From the perspective of
any one great power, all other great powers are
potential enemies The basis of this fear is that
in a world where great powers have the capability
to attack each other and might have the motive to
do so, any state bent on survival must be at
least suspicious of other states and reluctant to
trust them.
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Long Cycle Theory

• All history shows that nations active in
  international politics are continuously preparing
  for, actively involved in, or recovering form
  organized violence in the form of war.
• Long-cycle theory over the past five centuries,
  periods of global war have been followed by
  periods of international rule making/institution
  building
• Each global war led to the emergence of a
  hegemon a single, overwhelmingly powerful sate
  that exercises predominant influence over the
  global system
• Challengers arise to that power, setting the
  state for another global war

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Table 4.1
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The modern state system

• A relatively small number (/- 200) of relatively
  large (population and/or land mass) states that
  view themselves as sovereign and independent,
  recognizing no binding, higher political
  authority there is no world government, just
  these states operating to maximize their
  self-interests

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Creation of the Modern State System

• The commercial revolution trade? towns/cities
  with governments/legal systems? wealth
• The gunpowder revolution wealth? need for
  defense? rise fall of Roman Empire? the Dark
  Ages (feudalism no central authority)
• Life sucks? rise of Christianity as political
  power? Protestant Reformation
• Thirty Years War (becomes 1st real international
  war)?
• Treaty of Westphalia (need for sovereignty)

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The First World War

• World War I profoundly altered the worlds
  geopolitical map.
• By the time this war ended, 10 million people had
  died, three empires had crumbled, and a
  generation of Europeans had become disillusioned
  with foreign policies grounded in political
  realism.

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World War I Causes

• The assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand
• Nationalist feelings fueled the spiraling
  actions.
• Under the concept of weltpolitik (world policy),
  Germany began building a strong navy.
• The rise of German power posed a challenge to the
  British (purposely).
• The British aligned with France and Russia, which
  encouraged closer relations between
  Austria-Hungary more preparation for war.

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World War I Consequences

• This war transformed the face of Europe. Three
  empires collapsed and independent states emerged
  in their place
• Strong anti-war sentiment emerged in the U.S. and
  western Europe
• Treaty of Versailles and punishment of Germany
  resulted in war guilt and reparations (which
  leads to)
• Wilsonian liberalism and ideas about world order
  were at a high point (realism led to WWI so now
  lets try liberalism)

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Map 4.1
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British machine gun on western front

• A British machine gun crew in action on the
  western front. Machine guns, barbed wire, and
  trenches gave great advantages to the defense in
  the war and helped produce a long stalemate on
  the western front.

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1920s/1930s

• nationalist tensions
• Communist Russia determined to
  spread it around the world
• Japan trying to take over the East
• massive death economic destruction in Europe
• The Versailles Treaty that absolutely will not
  let Germany recover
• fascism and other forms of authoritarian
  governments taking control of Italy, Spain
  eastern European countries
• a major worldwide economic depression

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Hitler during Nazi Party rally

• During a Nazi Party rally in Nuremberg in 1927,
  Adolf Hitler stops his motorcade to receive the
  applause of the surrounding crowd.

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World War II Causes

• Versailles provisions inflamed Germany.
• On January 30, 1933, the Nazi leader, Adolf
  Hitler was appointed chancellor of Germany and
  given dictatorial power one month later.
• Leaders of Britain, France, and Italy thought
  appeasement would halt German expansionism.
• Instead, Hitler pressed for more power and was
  joined by Japan and Italy.

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World War II Consequences

• Border changes in Europe were widespread.
• A shift from a multipolar system to a bipolar
  system occurred. Two superpowers, the United
  States and the Soviet Union emerged.

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Map 4.2
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Cold War Causes

• Power transition propelled both states to top of
  global power hierarchy.
• Domino theory U.S. policy makers assumed that
  the fall of one country to communism would
  trigger the fall of its neighbors.
• Self-fulfilling prophecies added to suspicions on
  each side.
• National leaders assumed that decisive action
  would yield a bandwagon of support.

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Cold War Confrontation 1945-62

• Containment stop the spread of communism
• Marshall Plan Truman Doctrine
• Cold War crises including the Berlin blockade and
  the Korean War
• bipolarity
• Khruschevs peaceful coexistence
• Cuban missile crisis, 1962

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  Cold War European Alliance Systems  
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Figure 4.1
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From Coexistence to Detente 1963-1978

• Kennedy and tension reductions
• détente relaxation of tensions
• policy of Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger
• SALT talks
• cultural exchanges, trade agreements

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From Renewed Confrontation to Rapprochement
1979-1991

• Soviet invasion of Afghanistan (1979)
• Carter Doctrine
• Reagan Doctrine the evil empire
• Gorbachev withdraws from Eastern Europe,
  Afghanistan, Cuba nuclear reduction treaties
  domestic liberalization

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Fall of Berlin Wall In 1989, when the communist
regime in East Germany collapsed, the East German
government opened the wall on November 9th.
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The Consequences of the Cold War

• Soviet leaders made the most dramatic peaceful
  retreat from power in history.
• With the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991,
  no immediate great-power challenger confronted
  Americas hegemonic leadership.
• New security threats emerged in the form of
  aspiring nuclear powers such as North Korea and
  Iran and new, more elusive terrorist networks.

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A Unipolar World

• The United States is currently the worlds
  dominant military and political power.
• It is the only country with the military,
  economic, and cultural assets to be a decisive
  player in any part of the world it chooses.
• America also wields soft power as a source of
  popular culture and the hub of global
  communications for the world.

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A Unipolar World (cont.)

• A unilateral strategy means working alone in
  international matters.
• Long-term economic trajectories show that other
  countries will challenge American financial
  preeminence within the next two decades (it has
  started already)
• Imperial overstretch has always been a problem
  for great world powers (go back to Rome).

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Figure 4.2
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• Insert Table 4.2