IR 1001 Lecture 2, week 7 EastWest Confrontation in the Third World: The Cold War in Asia

1
IR 1001 Lecture 2, week 7East-West Confrontation
in the Third World The Cold War in Asia

• Lecture Plan
• Parameters of the Cold War in Asia
• The San Francisco System Alliances
• Communism in China
• The Korean War
• The Falling Dominoes Theory
• The Vietnam War
• Conclusion

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Parameters of the Cold War in Asia

• Geography superpowers face each other in the
  Pacific
• Ideology spread of competing ideologies in the
  region
• Geo-strategy securing maritime bases in the
  Pacific
• Wildcards
• the postwar status of Korea, Japan and China
• A Sino-Soviet Alliance
• The spread of communism to South East Asia
• Opportunity for influence decolonisation
• Process securing alliances through
• security guarantees and treaties
• support to internal movements (politics by proxy)

3
Communist China

• Early 20th Century - internal divisions and civil
  strife compounded by Japanese invasion
• Communist Party splits into 2 factions in 1927
• Kuomintang led by Chiang Kai-Shek
• Communists led by Mao Zedong (Tse-Tung)
• Sino-Japanese War (1937-45) uneasy alliance -
  fight each other and the Japanese
• After defeat of Japan in WWII, communist forces
  win the upper hand in civil war and China becomes
  unified and communist
• Kuomintang only retains control of Taiwan -
  creation of 2 Chinas
• both superpowers have issues with this
• US spread of communism to a potentially powerful
  state, creating a domino effect?
• SU ambiguous position - will China become a
  rival for leadership in the Communist bloc? The
  relationship will be starined on doctrine,
  nuclear technology and aid.

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The San Francisco System

• US-Japan Mutual Security Treaty signed in 1951
• This means that US and Japan pledge to defend
  each other if one is attacked
• Reality US funding the provision of Japanese
  security while getting bases on Japanese
  territory
• Mutually beneficial agreement
• US strategic access to North East Asia, ensuring
  demilitarisation of Japan, securing capitalism
• Japan can concentrate on economic recovery
• Problems in later years
• Japanese raising issues concerning commitment of
  US in its defense, problems with bases themselves
• US resenting spectacular Japanese economic growth
  at the expense of US economy

5
US Alliance System in the Pacific

• Development of alliance system - 2 layers
• multilateral initiatives (more than 2 partners)
• Bilateral agreements (2 partners)
• Key examples include
• Mutual security guarantees with the Philippines
  (with US bases there)
• SEATO (South East Asia Treaty Organisation) -
  i.e. the Asian NATO with the US, Pakistan, The
  Philippines, NZ, Australia, Thailand, France,
  Britain. (1954).
• Aim to coordinate efforts to contain the spread
  of communism in Asia - and support US in Vietnam
• ANZUS Treaty Mutual security between Australia,
  NZ and the US

6
The Korean War (1950-53)

• Korea occupied by Japan during WWII - upon allied
  victory, Soviet Union and US share occupation (2
  zones divided along 38th parallel)
• Similar dynamic to the division of Germany
• Intensification of the Cold War means each side
  creates a government in its zone. Superpowers
  then withdraw!
• Communist North Korea attacks South to gain
  control of the whole of Korea (June 25, 1950)
• US-backed UN intervention creates successful
  counter offensive
• China intervenes in support of North Korea and
  creates a new counter offensive (Nov. 26, 1950)
• War become bogged down and return to territorial
  status quo of original zones of occupation
• After 2 years of fighting, nuclear threats and
  negotiations, two separate states are created
  (1953).

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The Domino Theory in the US

• Events in China and Korea put containment of
  Soviet expansion in Asia on top of the agenda of
  policy-makers
• Means alliances, containment, intervention
• Dominant perspective Domino Theory
• The more communism spreads in the region, the
  more it is likely that this process will
  accelerate to engulf the whole of Asia
• A line has to be drawn in Asia to stop this
  spread
• Loss of Indochina by France in 1952 raises the
  spectre of Communism there Vietnam will be seen
  as the last line of defense against communism
• This explains strategic importance to the US and
  its involvement there

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The War in Vietnam The Context

• Key issues
• American support to a non-Communist South
  Vietnamese government facing a more powerful
  Northern Communist Vietcong opponent
• Risks of direct superpower involvement -
  escalation
• 2 contradictory positions for the USA
• Last line of defense against communism in Asia?
  The Domino Theory has wide support (Eisenhower
  and Kennedy)
• Unwillingness to intervene in Asian mainland
  (after Korea)
• Result would be a compromise moderate
  intervention?
• Soviet Union had to support a Communist leader
  (Ho Chi Minh), especially in the context of
  Chinese criticism

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Chronology of Progressive American Commitment (i)

• Result of French withdrawal after failure to
  secure French Indochina - war of independence
  ends with French defeat in Dien Bien Phu (May
  1954) and American support to the South
• Under Kennedy 1961-1962 overt support with
  material and advisors (plus covert surveillance
  and operations)
• 1963-64 weakness of South Vietnamese (Diem)
  regime would progressively draw the USA into the
  conflict
• to reverse early Vietcong victories
• policy of isolation/dislocation of villages from
  guerillas fail - invisible enemy?

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Chronology of Progressive American Commitment (ii)

• Growing military involvement
• 23,000 (1964) to 550,000 troops (1968)
• 1964 war extends to the North after Johnson uses
  the excuse of attacks on the US destroyer Maddox
• Hopes that overwhelming force and air attacks
  with bring rapid victory
• Guerilla tactics by the Vietcong, along with
  Soviet support prevents US victory despite heavy
  Vietcong losses
• Stand-off leads to negotiations in 1968
• Cambodia and Laos become drawn in and American
  involvement (overt and covert) will continue
  under Nixon with air raids resuming in 1972.
• Final settlement in mid-1970s will leave a trail
  of instability and war (Kampuchea-Vietnam) and
  American defeat

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Why did the USA fail in Vietnam?

• US seemed to have an overwhelming military
  advantage
• 4 key interconnected issues as to why small
  countries win big wars
• Variable commitments one of many commitments
  abroad vs. survival
• Military Dimensions conspicuous troops in
  unfamiliar terrain vs. local population with
  local support
• Economic Dimensions dragged the US into trade
  deficit vs. little to lose
• Political Dimensions protest in liberal
  democracy vs. solidarity of common threat

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Conclusion What does this regional case study
demonstrate?

• The Cuban Missile Crisis leads to a process of
  Détente
• But Vietman shows the importance of proxy
  conflict in the developing world
• Massive nuclear superiority does not guarantee
  success against a small power
• Vietnam war to haunt the otherwise undefeated US
  army - more isolationist, indirect involvement
• USSR will learn this lesson in Afghanistan
  ill-fated war from 1989 will be lost to the
  Mudjaheedin
• The logic of bipolarity demonstrated in San
  Francisco system and Korean War is undermined
  over time
• Fractures in the Soviet bloc USSR doesnt
  control China or the Vietcong
• Loss of faith in the necessity of the Cold War
• involvement abroad is costly and risky in human
  and financial terms