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Causes of Civil Wars

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This second war-cause grew more prevalent with the cold war's end, ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Causes of Civil Wars


1
Causes of Civil Wars
  • Political and Economic Factors
  • in contemporary civil wars
  • Johan M.G. van der Dennen

2
Causes of Civil Wars
  • Byman Van Evera's (1998 23) main thesis is
    that, in recent years, civil war has replaced
    international war as the dominant form of war and
    has nearly replaced it as the only form of war
    (cf. Murshed, 2001). The Persian gulf war of
    1990-91 has been the only major old-fashioned
    interstate war since 1989. The war problem is now
    largely synonymous with the civil war problem.

3
Causes of Civil Wars
  • Byman van Evera hypothesize that seven causes
    of civil violence stand out in importance (that
    is, in their potency and prevalence) in the cold
    war and post-cold war periods. They are

4
Causes of Civil Wars
  • 1. The collapse of post-Second World War empires

5
Causes of Civil Wars
  • 1. The collapse of post-Second World War empires
  • 2. A lack of regime legitimacy

6
Causes of Civil Wars
  • 1. The collapse of post-Second World War empires
  • 2. A lack of regime legitimacy
  • reform trap
  • democratization
  • hunkering down

7
Causes of Civil Wars
  • 1. The collapse of post-Second World War empires
  • 2. A lack of regime legitimacy
  • 3. State weakness

8
Causes of Civil Wars
  • 1. The collapse of post-Second World War empires
  • 2. A lack of regime legitimacy
  • 3. State weakness
  • 4. Communal hegemonism

9
Causes of Civil Wars
  • 1. The collapse of post-Second World War empires
  • 2. A lack of regime legitimacy
  • 3. State weakness
  • 4. Communal hegemonism
  • 5. Revolutionary ideology

10
Causes of Civil Wars
  • 1. The collapse of post-Second World War empires
  • 2. A lack of regime legitimacy
  • 3. State weakness
  • 4. Communal hegemonism
  • 5. Revolutionary ideology
  • 6. Aristocratic intransigence

11
Causes of Civil Wars
  • 1. The collapse of post-Second World War empires
  • 2. A lack of regime legitimacy
  • 3. State weakness
  • 4. Communal hegemonism
  • 5. Revolutionary ideology
  • 6. Aristocratic intransigence
  • 7. Superpower proxy wars

12
Causes of Civil Wars
  • All seven cause operated both during and after
    the cold war, but some were more prevalent during
    the cold war while some have been more prevalent
    afterward. Specifically, the first three causes
    listed above (collapse of empire, regime
    illegitimacy, and state weakness) grew more
    abundant after 1989, the fourth (communal
    hegemonism) stood roughly constant across both
    periods, and the last three (revolutionary
    ideology, aristocratic intransigence, and
    superpower competition) abated sharply after
    1989.

13
Causes of Civil Wars
  • Murshed (2001) adds the following economic
    origins to the complex chain of causative
    factors culminating in civil wars

14
Causes of Civil Wars
  • Inequality of income and opportunity should form
    the basis of a grievance that causes violence and
    ultimately civil war.

15
Causes of Civil Wars
  • Inequality of income and opportunity should form
    the basis of a grievance that causes violence and
    ultimately civil war.
  • Agrarian societies with high income inequality -
    for example El Salvador, Guatemala, the
    Philippines, and Zimbabwe - have high asset
    inequality, and are very prone to conflict.

16
Causes of Civil Wars
  • Inequality of income and opportunity should form
    the basis of a grievance that causes violence and
    ultimately civil war.
  • Agrarian societies with high income inequality -
    for example El Salvador, Guatemala, the
    Philippines, and Zimbabwe - have high asset
    inequality, and are very prone to conflict.
  • Economic mismanagement.

17
Causes of Civil Wars
  • Greed disguised as grievance? Greed might indeed
    drive civil war, but poverty and grievances also
    play a part.

18
Causes of Civil Wars
  • Greed disguised as grievance? Greed might indeed
    drive civil war, but poverty and grievances also
    play a part.
  • Two main types of resource exploitation and
    protracted warfare (warlord competition) point
    resources and diffuse resources.

19
Causes of Civil Wars
  • Conflict as the breakdown of social contract
    State failure.

20
Causes of Civil Wars
  • Conflict as the breakdown of social contract
    State failure.
  • The role of democracy in internal conflict
    prevention.

21
Causes of Civil Wars
  • Greed, creed, and governance in civil war,
    1989-99 (De Soysa, 2002)

22
Causes of Civil Wars
  • Greed, creed, and governance in civil war,
    1989-99 (De Soysa, 2002)
  • Abundant mineral wealth

23
Causes of Civil Wars
  • Greed, creed, and governance in civil war,
    1989-99 (De Soysa, 2002)
  • Abundant mineral wealth
  • Ethnicity

24
Causes of Civil Wars
  • Greed, creed, and governance in civil war,
    1989-99 (De Soysa, 2002)
  • Abundant mineral wealth
  • Ethnicity
  • Political liberalization

25
Causes of Civil Wars
  • Greed, creed, and governance in civil war,
    1989-99 (De Soysa, 2002)
  • Abundant mineral wealth
  • Ethnicity
  • Political liberalization
  • Creed

26
Causes of Civil Wars
  • Greed, creed, and governance in civil war,
    1989-99 (De Soysa, 2002)
  • Abundant mineral wealth
  • Ethnicity
  • Political liberalization
  • Creed
  • Governance and trade
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