Causes of Civil Wars

1
Causes of Civil Wars

• Political and Economic Factors
• in contemporary civil wars
• Johan M.G. van der Dennen

2
Causes of Civil Wars

• Byman Van Evera's (1998 23) main thesis is
  that, in recent years, civil war has replaced
  international war as the dominant form of war and
  has nearly replaced it as the only form of war
  (cf. Murshed, 2001). The Persian gulf war of
  1990-91 has been the only major old-fashioned
  interstate war since 1989. The war problem is now
  largely synonymous with the civil war problem.

3
Causes of Civil Wars

• Byman van Evera hypothesize that seven causes
  of civil violence stand out in importance (that
  is, in their potency and prevalence) in the cold
  war and post-cold war periods. They are

4
Causes of Civil Wars

• 1. The collapse of post-Second World War empires

5
Causes of Civil Wars

• 1. The collapse of post-Second World War empires
• 2. A lack of regime legitimacy

6
Causes of Civil Wars

• 1. The collapse of post-Second World War empires
• 2. A lack of regime legitimacy
• reform trap
• democratization
• hunkering down

7
Causes of Civil Wars

• 1. The collapse of post-Second World War empires
• 2. A lack of regime legitimacy
• 3. State weakness

8
Causes of Civil Wars

• 1. The collapse of post-Second World War empires
• 2. A lack of regime legitimacy
• 3. State weakness
• 4. Communal hegemonism

9
Causes of Civil Wars

• 1. The collapse of post-Second World War empires
• 2. A lack of regime legitimacy
• 3. State weakness
• 4. Communal hegemonism
• 5. Revolutionary ideology

10
Causes of Civil Wars

• 1. The collapse of post-Second World War empires
• 2. A lack of regime legitimacy
• 3. State weakness
• 4. Communal hegemonism
• 5. Revolutionary ideology
• 6. Aristocratic intransigence

11
Causes of Civil Wars

• 1. The collapse of post-Second World War empires
• 2. A lack of regime legitimacy
• 3. State weakness
• 4. Communal hegemonism
• 5. Revolutionary ideology
• 6. Aristocratic intransigence
• 7. Superpower proxy wars

12
Causes of Civil Wars

• All seven cause operated both during and after
  the cold war, but some were more prevalent during
  the cold war while some have been more prevalent
  afterward. Specifically, the first three causes
  listed above (collapse of empire, regime
  illegitimacy, and state weakness) grew more
  abundant after 1989, the fourth (communal
  hegemonism) stood roughly constant across both
  periods, and the last three (revolutionary
  ideology, aristocratic intransigence, and
  superpower competition) abated sharply after
  1989.

13
Causes of Civil Wars

• Murshed (2001) adds the following economic
  origins to the complex chain of causative
  factors culminating in civil wars

14
Causes of Civil Wars

• Inequality of income and opportunity should form
  the basis of a grievance that causes violence and
  ultimately civil war.

15
Causes of Civil Wars

• Inequality of income and opportunity should form
  the basis of a grievance that causes violence and
  ultimately civil war.
• Agrarian societies with high income inequality -
  for example El Salvador, Guatemala, the
  Philippines, and Zimbabwe - have high asset
  inequality, and are very prone to conflict.

16
Causes of Civil Wars

• Inequality of income and opportunity should form
  the basis of a grievance that causes violence and
  ultimately civil war.
• Agrarian societies with high income inequality -
  for example El Salvador, Guatemala, the
  Philippines, and Zimbabwe - have high asset
  inequality, and are very prone to conflict.
• Economic mismanagement.

17
Causes of Civil Wars

• Greed disguised as grievance? Greed might indeed
  drive civil war, but poverty and grievances also
  play a part.

18
Causes of Civil Wars

• Greed disguised as grievance? Greed might indeed
  drive civil war, but poverty and grievances also
  play a part.
• Two main types of resource exploitation and
  protracted warfare (warlord competition) point
  resources and diffuse resources.

19
Causes of Civil Wars

• Conflict as the breakdown of social contract
  State failure.

20
Causes of Civil Wars

• Conflict as the breakdown of social contract
  State failure.
• The role of democracy in internal conflict
  prevention.

21
Causes of Civil Wars

• Greed, creed, and governance in civil war,
  1989-99 (De Soysa, 2002)

22
Causes of Civil Wars

• Greed, creed, and governance in civil war,
  1989-99 (De Soysa, 2002)
• Abundant mineral wealth

23
Causes of Civil Wars

• Greed, creed, and governance in civil war,
  1989-99 (De Soysa, 2002)
• Abundant mineral wealth
• Ethnicity

24
Causes of Civil Wars

• Greed, creed, and governance in civil war,
  1989-99 (De Soysa, 2002)
• Abundant mineral wealth
• Ethnicity
• Political liberalization

25
Causes of Civil Wars

• Greed, creed, and governance in civil war,
  1989-99 (De Soysa, 2002)
• Abundant mineral wealth
• Ethnicity
• Political liberalization
• Creed

26
Causes of Civil Wars

• Greed, creed, and governance in civil war,
  1989-99 (De Soysa, 2002)
• Abundant mineral wealth
• Ethnicity
• Political liberalization
• Creed
• Governance and trade