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Vulnerability assessment of malaria from the viewpoint of climate change in India

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Title: Vulnerability assessment of malaria from the viewpoint of climate change in India


1
Vulnerability assessment of malaria from the
viewpoint of climate change in India
  • Ramesh C Dhiman
  • Deputy Director (Senior Grade)
  • National Institute of Malaria Research
  • Delhi-110054
  • dhimanrc_at_icmr.org.in

2
CLIMATE CHANGE
  • Climate change poses a major, and largely
    unfamiliar, challenge.
  • It is a newer challenge to ongoing efforts to
    protect human health

3
Climate Change is caused by
  • Human actions increase atmospheric
    concentration of energy trapping gases thereby
    amplifying the natural green house effect
    leading to climate change.
  • Green House Gases are
  • CO2 ( from fossil fuel forest burning ).
  • Methane (from irrigated agriculture, animal
    husbandry oil extraction),
  • Nitrous Oxide etc.

4
Projection of Global WarmingInter- governmental
Panel on Climate Change -III Assessment Report
  • Year Temp ( )
    Precipitation ()
  • 2020 1.4 0.30 C
    2 1
  • 2050 2.5 0.40 C
    3 1
  • 2080 3.8 0.50 C
    7 3





Rise in sea level up to 0.88 m may submerge
coastal areas Effect of sea level rise already
witnessed in Orissa
5
Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Health
Weather related mortality Infectious
diseases Altered food productivity
associated pest and diseases Air quality
respiratory illnesses
Heat Strokes Skin Diseases Eye Diseases Floods ,
Storms leading to deaths, Injury ,Psychological
distress Loss of PH infrastructure
Climate Change Temperature
Precipitation Sea Level
Geographic range and incidence of Vector Borne
diseases, Changed incidence of Diarrhoeal
Diseases
Malnutrition , Hunger , Impaired child growth and
development
Asthma Respiratory diseases
6
Other Infectious Diseases Likely to be Affected
by Climate Change
  • Hantavirus
  • Leptospirosis
  • Diarrohea due to floods droughts
  • Typhoid
  • SARS

7
Vector Borne Diseases in India
Reported cases in 2005 1
Report of NFCP Units
8
Malaria Epidemiological Triangle
Environment
Analogy Development of pathogens in insect
vectors is affected by climatic
conditions
9
Relationship of Temp. RH with Malaria Parasite
and Mosquito Development
10 11 12 13
Maximum temp. for mosquito survival
Minimum temp. for parasite development
Optimum temp.
14 15 16 17 18 19
25 26 27
40 oC
Relative Humidity 40 60 70 80
Minimum T required for transmission P
vivax 14.5-16 C P
falciparum16-18 C
10
Effect of Rise in Temperature on Disease Vectors
  • Rate of development (from egg to adults) will be
    faster
  • Rate of digestion of blood meal will be faster.
  • Frequency of feeding will be faster
  • Frequency of egg laying will increase.
  • Density of mosquitoes will increase.
  • Survival affected by RH.
  • Gonotrophic cycle and Longevity for sporogony
    reduced at higher temperature
  • Death of mosquitoes at 40C

Gonotrophic cycle, daily survival and man biting
rates are crucial factors for vectorial capacity
of vectors
11
Climatic Determinants for P. vivax Development
and Transmission
12
Average duration of sporogony of human Plasmodia
At 16 C , 55 days are required for completion of
sporogony
13
Impact of Temperature on Sporogony
Up to November
Degree days required for Pv 104C for Pf114
C Rainfall in 1993 was103.1cm while in 1994,
137.9 cm
14
Endemicity of Malaria in India ( 2006)

15
Malaria Vulnerability Assessment in India from
Climate Change
  • Northern states such as
  • J K, H.P, Punjab Haryana, Uttarakhand,
    U.P., NE states etc are more vulnerable to
    climate change
  • Southern states such as Karnataka, Kerala, T.N
    and A.P are less vulnerable to climate change

16
Distribution of vectors of malaria in India
Spatial extension of vectors may be affected
Role of An. subpictus and An Annularis need to
be assessed
17
Current Transmission windows of malaria ( 2004)
18
Projected Shift in Transmission Windows of
Malaria in view of Climate Change
a. Baseline 2004
b. TWs by 2080
Increase in TWs in Northern and NE states
reduction in Orissa, AP and TN is expected
19
PRECIS Surface Temperature, Baseline
IITM Pune
20
PRECIS Surface Temperature, A2 ( 2071-2100)
Baseline (1961-1990)
P vivax season
P falciparum season
IITM Pune
21
Season- wise impact of projected rise in
temperature on malaria transmission
Transmission windows may widen in
October-February Extension in P falciparum
transmission more than P vivax From March to
May , chances of reduction in Trans windows
22
Possible changes in Transmission Windows of
malaria
23
However, Vulnerability depends on
  • Population scenarios
  • Agricultural practices
  • Food availability
  • Economic scenarios
  • Local environmental conditions
  • Pre-existing health status and intervention
    capacities

24
Adaptation assessments
  • Shift in transmission months of VBDs - plan of
    intervention measures accordingly.
  • To develop tools for early warning for seasonal
    forecasts.
  • Strengthening of surveillance and EDPT
  • To improve health seeking behaviour, reach of
    health facilities to public
  • To identify adaptive capacity of society
  • Plan public health interventions and allocate
    resources
  • Community use of Insecticide treated nets.
  • Estimating the co-incidental benefits and costs
    of mitigation and adaptation
  • Adaptation strategies must be considered to
    reduce disease burden , injuries, disabilities
    and deaths

25
Adaptation measures Possible tools for early
Warning
  • Meteorological
    Variables
  • El Nino Southern Oscillation Rainfall

  • Satellite derived Normalized Difference
  • Vegetation Index ( NDVI)
  • Ecological changes detected by Remote
  • sensing

26
Relationship Between Malaria and Met. Parameters
Banaskantha district ( Gujarat)
Correlation between Rainfall and malaria
incidence with Two months lag was significant
27
Relationship Between Malaria and Met. Parameters
Bikaner district ( Rajasthan) 1988-2002
Rainfall two months prior was found as an
important indicator for early warning
28
Relationship Between Malaria and Met. Parameters
Tumkur district ( Karnataka)
No correlation was found between met parameters
and malaria incidence
29
Initiatives taken by Govt of India
  • Indias 1st National Communication Project to
    UNFCC/GEF ( 2000-2002) for vulnerability
    assessment adaptation measures in view of
    climate change.
  • IInd National Communication Project, MoEF
    launched in Feb 2008
  • Prime Ministers Expert Committee on Climate
    Change is reviewing the issue.
  • Climate Change is an imp. issue for XIth Plan.

30
Research needs
  • To examine evidence from the associations between
    climate variability and Malaria occurrence in
    high land areas.
  • Establishing baseline relationships between
    weather and malaria in different paradigms.
  • To find methods for early detection of
    already-emerging infectious disease and impacts
    of long-term climate change.
  • To generate data on the impacts of T, RH on
    vector development in vector specific domains.
  • To develop predictive models to estimate the
    future burden of malaria and other VBDs under
    projected climate change scenarios.
  • To find out the adaptive needs of the society for
    addressing climate change issue
  • Evaluation of adaptation options
  • .

31
  • Thanks
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