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Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change

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Title: Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change


1
Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and
Thailand from Impact of Climate
Change Suppakorn Chinvanno SEA START
RC Chulalongkorn University Thailand
2
Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and
Thailand from Impact of Climate Change
Outline
  • Background
  • Objective Scope of study
  • Study sites
  • Method
  • Finding (preliminary)
  • Impact of climate change on rice production
  • Rain-fed farmer vulnerability analysis
  • Remarks
  • Surveyed data still need to be validated and
    verified
  • Analysis on Thailand survey is only partially
    analyzed
  • Adaptation options is to be further evaluated

3
Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and
Thailand from Impact of Climate Change
Background
  • Part of AIACC AS07 Regional Study Southeast Asia
    Regional Vulnerability to Changing Water Resource
    and Extreme Hydrological Events due to Climate
    Change
  • Joint research effort by
  • Suppakorn Chinvanno1
  • Boontium Lersupavithnapa2
  • Somkith Boulidam3
  • Thavone Inthavong4
  • Chitnucha Budhaboon5
  • 1 Southeast Asia START Regional Center,
    Chulalongkorn University, Thailand
  • 2 Faculty of Agriculture, Ubonratchathani
    University, Ubon Ratchathani, Thailand
  • 3 Faculty of Social Science, National University
    of Laos, Vientiane, Lao PDR
  • 4 National Agriculture and Forestry Research
    Institute, Lao PDR
  • 5 Rice Research Center, Thailand

4
Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and
Thailand from Impact of Climate Change
Objectives Pilot study to identify
characterize vulnerability adaptation to
climate change impact of rain-fed farmer and
build regional capacity network of researchers
Scope
Climate Variability
Climate Change Scenario
Changes in yield of rice production
Changes in yield of rice production scenarios
  • Who will vulnerable?
  • How?
  • How did they response to the past climate
    variability?
  • Can this cope with future change?
  • If not, what to do about future?

Vulnerability
Vulnerability
Adaptation
new
no
expand
sufficient
Coping capacity
Sustainable livelihood
yes
5
Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and
Thailand from Impact of Climate Change
Study Sites
  • Thailand Ubonratchathani Province, covering 18
    villages in 2 districts and devided into
  • Zone 1 Upland local rice, mostly for own
    consumption
  • Zone 2 Lowland along river flood risk area
    commercial rice
  • Zone 3 Upland commercial rice rainfed only
  • Zone 4 Intensive commercial rice rainfed only
  • Zone 5 Partly upland rice convert from local
    rice to commercial rice rainfed only high
    risk in rainfall distribution
  • Lao PDR Savannakhet Province, covering 4
    villages in Songkhone District

6
Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and
Thailand from Impact of Climate Change
Finding Preliminary result
  • Survey data still need to be validated and
    verified
  • Analysis on Thailand survey is only partially
    analyzed
  • Adaptation options is to be further evaluated

7
Potential climate impact on rain-fed agriculture
Climate impact on rain-fed rice production
Savannakhet Province, Lao PDR
Simulated yield is done using 5 years climate
condition under each CO2 scenarios and average
the results
8
Potential climate impact on rain-fed agriculture
Climate impact on rain-fed rice production
Savannakhet Province, Lao PDR
Simulated rice yield (ton/ha) Simulated rice yield (ton/ha) Simulated rice yield (ton/ha) Simulated rice yield (ton/ha) Simulated rice yield (ton/ha)
Climate scenario Min Max Ave change from baseline year
1xCO2 919.6 5974.6 2497.4  
1.5xCO2 866.2 5470.0 2355.0 -5.7
2xCO2 1021.8 5877.4 2493.3 -0.2
9
Potential climate impact on rain-fed agriculture
Climate impact on rain-fed rice production
Simulated rice yields under different climate
scenarios in 3 regions in Thailand
    Selected climate scenarios by annual rainfall Selected climate scenarios by annual rainfall Selected climate scenarios by annual rainfall Selected climate scenarios by annual rainfall Selected climate scenarios by annual rainfall Selected climate scenarios by annual rainfall Selected climate scenarios by annual rainfall Selected climate scenarios by annual rainfall Selected climate scenarios by annual rainfall
  Dry Year Dry Year Dry Year Median Year Median Year Median Year Wet Year Wet Year Wet Year
  Yield SD change from baseline year Yield SD change from baseline year Yield SD change from baseline year
    kg ha-1 kg ha-1   kg ha-1 kg ha-1   kg ha-1 kg ha-1  
Northern Thailand 1.0CO2 2685 537   2340 399   2781 638  
Chiang Rai Province 1.5CO2 2834 480 5.55 2678 480 14.44 2700 574 -2.91
  2.0CO2 2553 875 -4.92 3402 1104 45.38 3248 975 16.79
North Eastern Thailand 1.0CO2 2544 557   2459 591   2635 1083  
Sakonnakorn Province 1.5CO2 2644 887 3.93 2257 617 -8.21 2355 842 -10.63
  2.0CO2 2615 1137 2.79 2771 1400 12.69 2812 1384 6.72
Central Thailand 1.0CO2 2421 732   2481 743   2456 720  
Sakaeo Province 1.5CO2 2657 623 9.75 2633 671 6.13 2360 681 -3.91
  2.0CO2 2527 823 4.38 2878 796 16.00 2516 803 2.44
10
Potential climate impact on rain-fed agriculture
Climate impact on rain-fed rice production
Averaged simulated rice yields of each decade
under three climate scenarios Sakonnakorn
Province, North-eastern Thailand
11
Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to
Climate Impact Stakeholders engagement
  • Engaging Local Community Target social group
    Rain-fed farmer community
  • Conduct on-farm interview focus group
    discussion with local farmer communities
  • Thailand North-eastern region - Ubonratchathani
    province (covering 600 households in 18 villages
    in Det-udom and Najaluay Districts)
  • Lao PDR Central region - Savannakhet province
    (covering 160 households in 4 villages in
    Songkhone district)
  • Engaging Policy Maker Series of meeting
    workshop

12
Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to
Climate Impact Identifying vulnerable group
Defining rain-fed farmer with risk to climate
impact potential vulnerable group
Multi-criteria analysis
Household Economic Condition
1. Good / sustained
Farmer community
2. Bad / not sustained
Coping Capacity
3. High
4. Low
5. High
6. Low
Livelihood dependency on rice production
Potential Vulnerable Group 245 235 246
Potential Non-Vulnerable Group 136 145 135
146 236
13
Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to
Climate Impact Indices to evaulate climate risk
Lao PDR
No Criteria / Indicator Description Value Weight Range
Criteria I Household economic condition Criteria I Household economic condition Criteria I Household economic condition Criteria I Household economic condition Criteria I Household economic condition
1 Sufficient household productivity Total annual household productivity value / Total annual household consumption value gt 1.5 1 lt1.5 -1 2 lt1 3 2 2 - 6
2 Surplus household productivity Percentage of annual household surplus productivity value / Total household consumption gt 50 1 lt50-20 2 lt20 3 2 2 - 6
3 Self-sufficient rice consumption Total annual rice production / Total annual rice consumption gt 1 1 lt1 2 1 1 - 2
4 Land ownership Own or rent farm land for farming Yes 1 No 2 1 1 - 2
5 Sufficient productivity from non climate sensitive source to guarantee food security (Total livestock Off-farm revenue) / Total food consumption gt 1 1 lt1-0.5 2 lt0.5 3 1 1 - 3
Criteria II Rice production dependency Criteria II Rice production dependency Criteria II Rice production dependency Criteria II Rice production dependency Criteria II Rice production dependency
6 Household sustained livelihood without rice production Total other productivity value / Total household consumption 100 gt70 1 lt7050 2 lt50 3 3 3 - 9
7 Level of food security from nature production Total value of food from natural source / Total food consumption 100 gt70 1 lt7050 2 lt50 3 3 3 - 9
14
Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to
Climate Impact Indices to evaulate climate risk
Lao PDR
No Criteria / Indicator Description Value Weight Range
Criteria III Coping capacity Criteria III Coping capacity Criteria III Coping capacity Criteria III Coping capacity Criteria III Coping capacity
8 Capacity of saving to support household livelihood Total household saving (cash rice in the store livestock) / Total household consumption 100 gt30 1 lt30-10 2 lt10 3 2 2 - 6
9 External financial support mechanism Accessible to external loan to support climate impact Adequate 1 Partial 2 None or barely 3 1 1 - 3
10 Capacity to maintain livelihood with total lost rice production (Total household saving Alternate extra income cash convertible product e,g, livestock) / (Household consumption 5 months total cost of rice production) gt1 1 lt1 0.5 2 lt0.5 3 2 2 - 6
11 Capacity of natural product to maintain food security Total nature product / Total food consumption 100 gt70 1 lt70-30 2 lt 30 3 1 1 - 3
  • Total possible Range Scoring 19 55
  • Low climate risk group 19 31
  • Moderate climate risk group gt31 43
  • High climate risk group gt43 55

15
Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to
Climate Impact Climate risk to rain-fed farmer
Climate risk group Lao PDR when rice production
reduced by 15
    Potential Vulnerable Group - Lao PDR Potential Vulnerable Group - Lao PDR Potential Vulnerable Group - Lao PDR Potential Vulnerable Group - Lao PDR Potential Vulnerable Group - Lao PDR Potential Vulnerable Group - Lao PDR
    Current Situation Current Situation Current Situation With Climate Impact Stress With Climate Impact Stress With Climate Impact Stress
Criteria / Score Range Low Moderate High Low Moderate High
Total Vulnerability Score 19 - 55 19 - 31 gt31 - 43 gt43 - 55 19 - 31 gt31 - 43 gt43 - 55
Average Score   26.4 37.2 46.9 26.5 36.5 47.0
Household Economic Condition 7 - 19 9.1 13.5 17.0 9.3 13.7 17.6
Livelihood Dependency on Rice 6 - 18 7.0 10.1 14.4 7.0 9.5 14.1
Coping Capacity 6 - 18 10.4 13.6 15.5 10.2 13.2 15.3
Number of Households 162  105 45 10 98 49 13
Household vulnerable to climate impact 45
households (28 of total survey)
16
Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to
Climate Impact Climate risk to rain-fed farmer
Climate risk group Lao PDR when rice production
reduced by 30
    Potential Vulnerable Group - Lao PDR Potential Vulnerable Group - Lao PDR Potential Vulnerable Group - Lao PDR Potential Vulnerable Group - Lao PDR Potential Vulnerable Group - Lao PDR Potential Vulnerable Group - Lao PDR
    Current Situation Current Situation Current Situation With Climate Impact Stress With Climate Impact Stress With Climate Impact Stress
Criteria / Score Range Low Moderate High Low Moderate High
Total Vulnerability Score 19 - 55 19 - 31 gt31 - 43 gt43 - 55 19 - 31 gt31 - 43 gt43 - 55
Average Score   26.4 37.2 46.9 26.6 35.9 47.1
Household Economic Condition 7 - 19 9.1 13.5 17.0 9.7 14.1 17.9
Livelihood Dependency on Rice 6 - 18 7.0 10.1 14.4 6.9 9.0 13.6
Coping Capacity 6 - 18 10.4 13.6 15.5 10.0 12.8 15.5
Number of Households 162  105 45 10 84 61 15
Household vulnerable to climate impact 97
households (60 of total survey)
17
Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and
Thailand from Impact of Climate Change
Characteristic of vulnerable group to impact of
climate change Lao PDR (97 households or 60 of
total survey)
Comparison of socio-economic condition Vulnerable VS Non-vulnerable groups Comparison of socio-economic condition Vulnerable VS Non-vulnerable groups Comparison of socio-economic condition Vulnerable VS Non-vulnerable groups Comparison of socio-economic condition Vulnerable VS Non-vulnerable groups Comparison of socio-economic condition Vulnerable VS Non-vulnerable groups
  Without climate stress With climate stress - lost of rice production by 30 With climate stress - lost of rice production by 30 Comparison Vulnerable to Non-vulnerable group
Average from total households in each group Total surveyed population Non-Vulnerable Vulnerable Comparison Vulnerable to Non-vulnerable group
Economic condition  
Annual total productivity (per capita) 284 296 236 -20.27
Annual consumption (per capita) 145 150 142 -5.33
Annual total rice production (value - per capita) 81 61 54 -11.48
Percentage of HH annual rice production to total productivity 31.12 21.91 26.27 19.90
Percentage of annual HH on-farm production to total productivity 64.16 59.96 61.22 2.10
Percentage of HH annual off-farm production to total productivity 35.84 40.04 38.78 -3.15
HH cash saving (per capita) 39 49 39 -20.41
HH other saving (includes cash convertible livestock) per capita 75 113 75 -33.63
Farming system structure        
HH farm size per capita 0.47 0.47 0.46 -2.13
HH rice productivity per land unit (ton/ha) 1.66 1.7 1.63 -4.12
HH cost production 36 45 30 -33.33
18
Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and
Thailand from Impact of Climate Change
Adaptation direction for rain-fed farmer Lao
PDR Increase total productivity by increasing
rice production by improving farming / crop
management method and to increase buffer in
coping capacity, probably through increasing
livestock and / or off-farm income.
Some adaptation options taken to cope with past
climate variability 1 Seek for off-farm
products e.g. products from natural source 2
Implement alternate crop 3 Increase buffer in
coping capacity, e.g. community based rice bank,
livestock
19
Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to
Climate Impact Indices to evaluate climate risk
Thailand
No Criteria / Indicator Description Value Weight Range
Criteria I Household economic condition Criteria I Household economic condition Criteria I Household economic condition Criteria I Household economic condition Criteria I Household economic condition
1 Sufficient household income Total household income / Total household expenditure gt 1.5 1 lt1.5 -1 2 lt1 3 1 1 - 3
2 Surplus household income Percentage of Total household income - Total household expenditure) / Total household expenditure gt 10 1, gt10 to lt-10 2, lt-10 3 0.5 0.5 1.5
3 Self-sustained rice consumption Total annual rice production / Total annual rice consumption gt 1 1 lt1 2 1 1 - 2
4 Land ownership Own or rent farm land for farming Yes 1 No 2 0.5 0.5 - 1
5 Gross Profit Loss from rice producing Percentage of (Total value of rice production - Total cost of production) / Total cost of production gt 150 1, lt150 to gt100 2, lt100 3 0.5 0.5 - 1.5
6 Net Profit Loss from rice producing (Total value of rice production - Cost of production) / (Total cost of production Household fixed expenses 4 months) gt 100 1, 100 to gt50 2, lt50-0 3, lt0 4 0.5 0.5 - 2
20
Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to
Climate Impact Indices to evaluate climate risk
Thailand
No Criteria / Indicator Description Value Weight Range
Criteria II Rice production dependency Criteria II Rice production dependency Criteria II Rice production dependency Criteria II Rice production dependency Criteria II Rice production dependency
7 Household sustains livelihood without rice production Total extra income / Total fixed expenses gt1 1, lt1 to gt0.5 2, lt0.5 3 2 2 - 6
8 Level of livelihood dependency on rice production Percentage of (Total household expenditure - Extra income)/Total expenditure lt40 1, 40-70 2, gt70 3 2 2 - 6
21
Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to
Climate Impact Indices to evaluate climate risk
Thailand
No Criteria / Indicator Description Value Weight Range
Criteria III Coping capacity Criteria III Coping capacity Criteria III Coping capacity Criteria III Coping capacity Criteria III Coping capacity
9 Capacity of alternate source of income to support household livelihood Total alternate income / (Total cost of rice production Fixed household expenditure 4 month) gt1 1, lt1 2 1 1 - 2
10 External financial support mechanism Accessible to external loan to support climate impact Adequate 1 Partial 2 None or barely 3 1 1 - 3
11 Capacity of saving to support household livelihood (Cash saving Total value of livestock) / (Total cost of rice production Fixed household expenditure for one crop season 4 month) gt1 1, lt1 2 1 1 - 2
12 Capacity to maintain livelihood with total lost rice production (Cash saving Extra income Cash convertible livestock Loan allowance) / (Total household expenditure Total cost of rice production) gt1.5 1, 1.5 to gt1 2, 1 to gt 0.5 3, lt0.5 4 1 1 - 4
  • Total possible Range Scoring 12 34
  • Low climate risk group 12 19
  • Moderate climate risk group gt19 26
  • High climate risk group gt26 34

22
Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to
Climate Impact Climate risk to rain-fed farmer
Climate risk group Thailand when rice
production reduced by 15
 Zone 1 Upland local rice, mostly for own consumption  Zone 1 Upland local rice, mostly for own consumption Potential Vulnerable Group Thailand Potential Vulnerable Group Thailand Potential Vulnerable Group Thailand Potential Vulnerable Group Thailand Potential Vulnerable Group Thailand Potential Vulnerable Group Thailand
    Current Situation Current Situation Current Situation With Climate Impact Stress With Climate Impact Stress With Climate Impact Stress
Criteria / Score Range Low Moderate High Low Moderate High
Total Vulnerability Score 12 - 34 12 - 19 gt19 - 26 gt26 - 34 12 - 19 gt19 - 26 gt26 - 34
Average Score   15 23.2 28.6 15.1 22.7 28.7
Household Economic Condition 4 - 11 6.3 6.6 8.9 6.3 6.7 9.1
Livelihood Dependency on Rice 4 - 12 4.5 10.5 12.0 4.3 10.1 12.0
Coping Capacity 4 - 11 4.4 6.1 7.7 4.5 5.9 7.5
Number of Households  98 34 29 35 32 27 39
Household vulnerable to climate impact 28
households (28.6)
23
Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and
Thailand from Impact of Climate Change
Characteristic of vulnerable group to impact of
climate change (28 households in Zone 1 Thailand)
Comparison of socio-economic condition Comparison of socio-economic condition Comparison of socio-economic condition Comparison of socio-economic condition Comparison of socio-economic condition
Zone 1 Upland local rice, mostly for own consumption Without climate stress With climate stress - lost of rice production by 15 With climate stress - lost of rice production by 15 Comparison Vulnerable to Non-vulnerable group
Average from total households in each group Total surveyed population Non-Vulnerable Vulnerable Comparison Vulnerable to Non-vulnerable group
Economic condition        
HH income per capita 252 241 203 -15.77
Income from rice per capita 142 119 125 5.04
Income from rice to Total income () 70.49 65.77 75.83 15.30
Extra income to Total income () 29.51 34.33 24.17 -29.60
Total expenditure per capita 164 156 185 18.59
Cash saving per capita 19 11 38 245.45
Total Cash convertible livestock per capita 230 252 176 -30.16
Debt per capita 190 207 148 -28.50
Weighted interest rate () 6.42 6.42 6.41 -0.16
Farming system structure        
Farm size per capita (Ha) 1.0 1.2 0.85 -29.17
Rice productivity per Ha (ton/ha) 1.2 1.1 1.4 27.27
Gross profit from rice production per Ha () 188 140 165 17.86
24
Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and
Thailand from Impact of Climate Change
Adaptation direction for rain-fed farmer Zone
1, Thailand Increase income per capita by
increasing extra income, perhaps to be higher
than non-vulnerable group in order to cope with
higher expenditure and to increase buffer in
coping capacity, probably through increasing cash
convertible livestock.
Some adaptation options taken to cope with past
climate variability 1 Seek for off-farm
income laboring in the city 2 Increasing
buffer in coping capacity number of
livestock 3 Alternate crop
25
Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and
Thailand from Impact of Climate Change
  • Climate risk group their characteristics to be
    analyzed in the same method for the farmer in
    other zones
  • Zone 1 Upland local rice, mostly for own
    consumption
  • Zone 2 Lowland along river flood risk area
    commercial rice
  • Zone 3 Upland commercial rice rainfed only
  • Zone 4 Intensive commercial rice rainfed only
  • Zone 5 Partly upland rice convert from local
    rice to commercial rice rainfed only high
    risk in rainfall distribution

Concerned issue Research gap Vulnerability
profile not explained multi-dimension aspect,
e.g. multiple climate stress, temporal aspect of
the climate impact time of occurrence,
consecutive year of extreme event, dynamic of
society, etc. not yet systematically covered.
26
Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and
Thailand from Impact of Climate Change
Summary Climate change shows strong tendency
to have impact on rain-fed rice agriculture
system, particularly the increasing in magnitude
and frequency of extreme climate variability.
Rain-fed farmers livelihood would be affected
from the damage or reduction in rice production
due to climate impact. Engaging local
stakeholders to get better understanding on
current adaptation strategies evaluate whether
they would be sufficient to cope with future
climate impact or not.
27
Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and
Thailand from Impact of Climate Change
  • Project wrap-up plan Planning adaptation
    strategy evaluation
  • Some concerned issues site specific /
    limitation / feasibility
  • The threshold of natural system condition to
    sufficiently support community in compensating
    the lost in rice production of farmer in Lao PDR
  • Also degradation of the natural system as well
    as change in population to the threshold that
    such system may be overly exploited.
  • Economic condition in the city in Thailand to
    support excess labor from upcountry, who try to
    seek for extra income to support their livelihood
    when income from rice production is not
    sufficient.
  • Innovative new adaptation strategies to cope
    with the future vulnerability to climate change
    impact need to be developed

28
Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and
Thailand from Impact of Climate Change
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