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Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment Hands-on Training Workshop

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Title: Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment Hands-on Training Workshop


1
Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment Hands-on
Training Workshop
Integration of VA Analysis
2
Outline
  • Integration of results
  • General points
  • Cross sector and multisector integration
  • Setting priorities
  • Vulnerability
  • Adaptation

3
Why is Integration Important?
  • Impacts do not happen in isolation
  • Impacts in one sector can adversely or positively
    affect another
  • Some sectors are affected directly and indirectly
  • Others just indirectly
  • Sometimes a change in one sector can offset the
    affect of climate change in another sector
  • In addition, integration is necessary for ranking
    vulnerabilities and adaptations

4
Main Types of Integration of Results
  • Cross-sector integration
  • Link related sectors
  • Multisector
  • Economy or system wide
  • Integrated assessment models
  • Economic models

5
Impacts in One Sector Can Overwhelm Direct
Climate Effect
  • In a recent study, crop yields in California were
    generally estimated to increase with climate
    change
  • In one scenario, a 25 reduction in water supply
    results in a net loss of 1 billion/year to
    California agriculture

6
Integrating WEAP and CROPWAT
SCENARIOS Population, Development, Technology
WATBAL Streamflow PET
SCENARIOS GCM
CERES Crop water demand
WEAP Evaluation Planning
CLIMATE Precip., Temp., Solar Rad.
CROPWAT Regional irrigation
7
Key Indicators for Egyptian Baseline
(1990 absolute 2060-optimistic/pessimistic
percentage change from 1990)
8
Multisector Integration
9
IMAGE Model
10
Regional/National Economic Models
  • Quantitative way to examine climate change market
    impacts throughout an economy
  • Problem with nonmarket impacts
  • Often macroeconomic models or general equilibrium
    models
  • Require much data
  • Can be expensive
  • Can be complex
  • Communication of assumptions can be a challenge

11
An Example of a Regional Model
12
A More Simple Approach
  • Add up results sector by sector
  • Limited by what is known within sectors
  • Problem of how to integrate across multiple end
    points
  • Impacts may be measured with different metrics
  • Need to account for many sectors
  • Does not capture sectoral interactions

13
Estimates of Damages for India
Sector Damages ( billions)
Agriculture -53.2
Forestry 0.1
Energy -21.9
Water -1.2
Coastal Resources -0.1
14
Can Also Measure Number of People Affected
  • Millions at Risk study did this
  • Global burden of disease

15
Millions at Risk Study
16
At a Minimum
  • Should at least qualitatively identify linkages
    and possible direction of impacts
  • If crops can be examined, not water supply, then
    identify how change in water supply could affect
    agricultural production

17
Integration through Setting Priorities
  • Vulnerability
  • Adaptation

18
Prioritization of Vulnerabilities
  • It can be quite useful for
  • Focusing adaptation measures
  • Monitoring
  • Adaptation

19
Process is as Important as Outcome
  • This is an expression of values, not a purely
    analytic exercise
  • Need to include stakeholders and policy makers
  • The following are tools that can be useful in
    setting priorities
  • Whether you use qualitative or quantitative
    approach, the most important thing is JUST DO IT

20
NAPA Process
21
Adaptation Policy Framework
Table 4 Ranking of priority systems/regions/clima
te hazards
22
OECD Method
23
Ranking Adaptations
  • Screening
  • Multicriteria assessment
  • Benefit-cost analysis

24
Screening Matrix for Human Settlement and Tourism
Adaptation Measure in Antigua
25
Multicriteria Assessment
Options Effectiveness Feasibility Cost Score
A 3 2 2 7
B 2 4 4 10
C 5 1 3 9
26
Adaptation Decision Matrix for Agriculture in
Kazakhstan
27
Ranking Based on Scenario
28
Benefit-Cost Analysis
  • Estimate all benefits and costs in a common
    metric to determine whether benefits gt costs
  • Monetary values often used
  • Difficulty what to do about nonmarket benefits
    or uncertainties
  • Difficulty requires much data and analysis

29
BCA Example Sea Walls in Kiribati
30
What to Use
31
Conclusions
  • Integration is important to at least identify
    related impacts
  • Analysis is desirable because there can be
    surprises
  • Integration can also be useful for examining
    total vulnerability and ranking vulnerabilities
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