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Decision Relevant Climate Change Impact Assessments using WEAP21

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The WEAP 2-Bucket Hydrology Module One 2-Bucket Model Per Land Class This last point leads to a stylized groundwater representation ... change assessment ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Decision Relevant Climate Change Impact Assessments using WEAP21


1
Decision Relevant Climate Change Impact
Assessments using WEAP21
  • Stockholm Environment Institute-Boston Center
  • National Center for Atmospheric Research
  • Natural Heritage Institute
  • with support from
  • U.S. EPA, Office of Research and Development

2
Lets start with a quick introduction to the
original version of WEAP, and most other water
resource management simulation models for the
matter.
3
A Simple System
4
What are we assuming?
  1. That we know how much water is flowing at the top
    of each river.
  2. That we know how much water is flowing into or
    out of the river as it moves downstream.
  3. That we know what the water demands are with
    certainty.

5
What are we assuming?
  1. That we know how much water is flowing at the top
    of each river.
  2. That we know how much water is flowing into or
    out of the river as it moves downstream.
  3. That we know what the water demands are with
    certainty.
  4. Basicly, that this system has been removed from
    it HYDROLOGIC context.

6
What do we do now?
7
ADD HYDROLOGY!
8
Hydrology Model
Critical question How does rainfall on a
catchment translate into flow in a river?
Critical question What pathways does water
follow as it moves through a catchment? Runoff?
Infiltration? ET? Seepage?
Critical question How does movement along these
pathways impact the magnitude, timing, duration
and frequency of river flows?
9
Planning Model
Critical question How should water be allocated
to various uses in time of shortage?
Critical question How can these operations be
constrained to protect the services provided by
the river?
Critical question How should infrastructure in
the system (e.g. dams, diversion works, etc) be
operated to achieve maximum benefit?
Critical question How will allocation,
operations and operating constraints change if
new management strategies are introduced into the
system?
10
WEAP, with its integrated Hydrology Molude,
provides a framework for answering both set of
questions.
11
WEAP Hydrology
12
The WEAP 2-Bucket Hydrology Module
Surface Runoff f(Pe,z1,1/LAI)
13
One 2-Bucket Model Per Land Class
14
This last point leads to a stylized groundwater
representation
15
An Example from California
16
WEAP Schematic of Sacramento Watershed Based Model
17
Calibration and Validation
  • Model Evaluation (1961-1999)
  • Flows Along Mainstem and Tributaries
  • Reservoir Storage and Release
  • Trinity Diversion
  • Agricultural Water Demand
  • Groundwater Storage Trends
  • Yolo Bypass Flood Inundation
  • Sacramento River Water Temperature

18
Reservoir Storage
SHASTA
19
Stylized Sacramento Climate Scenarios
20
Phenologies of reproductive events in freshwater
phase of Chinook salmon life-cycle in the SV
watershed.? adult immigration ? spawning and
hatching ? juvenile emigration
21
River Temperature Model
  • First-order DO and temperature patterned after
    Chapra (1997)
  • Water quality simulated for select rivers, where
    tributaries, discharges, and return flows
    prescribed.
  • Mass balance equations for each stream segment
  • Hydrologic inflows from rivers and groundwater
    sources simulate the water balance and mixing of
    concentrations and temperature along each reach.
  • Same River network for the water resources and
    the water quality simulation, and assumes
    complete mixing.

22
Temp. Profile Kms Downriver of Shasta Dam
June July Aug Sep
Historic 100 55 65 220
WmDry 55 14.5 14.9 50
WmWet 65 40 35 110
23
Current Decision-Relevant Activity
  • Collaborating with PCWA and EID on the
    development of a WEAP21 model of the American
    River Watershed for exploration of potential
    climate change impacts.
  • Collaborating with DWR to see if the WEAP21
    Framework can contribute to the quantitative
    climate change assessment envisioned for
    B160-2010.
  • Working with the California Climate Center on a
    case study for the Sacramento Valley as part of a
    climate change assessment report called for under
    Governor Schwarzeneggers Executive Order S-3-05.

24
Approach
  • Develop refined WEAP model of the American River
    watershed.
  • Apply the model to understand hydropower
    potential of PCWA system.
  • Apply the model to understand the drought
    vulnerability of the EID water supply system.
  • Potentially integrated with a model of the Yuba
    River watershed which is managed by Nevada
    Irrigation District and has substantial transfers
    into the American River watershed.

25
The American River Watershed in WEAP21
26
North Fork American
27
Preliminary Calibration 1990 - 1999
28
Warmer and Drier Climate Scenario
29
Current Decision-Relevant Activity
  • Collaborating with PCWA and EID on the
    development of a WEAP21 model of the American
    River Watershed for exploration of potential
    climate change impacts.
  • Collaborating with DWR to see if the WEAP21
    Framework can contribute to the quantitative
    climate change assessment envisioned for
    B160-2010.
  • Working with the California Climate Center on a
    case study for the Sacramento Valley as part of a
    climate change assessment report called for under
    Governor Schwarzeneggers Executive Order S-3-05.

30
Approach
  • Train DWR staff on the use of WEAP.
  • Develop a link between Sacramento Valley
    application and a Delta Water Quality Model.
  • Develop a link with a future demand scenario
    generator developed by RAND.
  • Embed the Sacramento Valley application in a more
    stylized system-wide model.
  • Run a series of climate change scenarios.
  • Evaluate with DWR if the WEAP framework can be
    used for quantitative climate change analysis in
    Bulletin 160-2010.

31
Current Decision-Relevant Activity
  • Collaborating with PCWA and EID on the
    development of a WEAP21 model of the American
    River Watershed for exploration of potential
    climate change impacts.
  • Collaborating with DWR to see if the WEAP21
    Framework can contribute to the quantitative
    climate change assessment envisioned for
    B160-2010.
  • Working with the California Climate Center on a
    case study for the Sacramento Valley as part of a
    climate change assessment report called for under
    Governor Schwarzeneggers Executive Order S-3-05.

32
Approach
  • Disaggregate HUCs to ID level
  • Calibrate model
  • Run climate change scenarios
  • Modify assumptions (e.g. changing irrigation
    technology/efficiency, varying cropping patterns,
    conversion of farmland to urban use, etc.)
  • Re-run scenarios
  • Perform economic assessment

33
Spatial Disaggregation
Sacramento Valley WEAP Model
34
Spatial Disaggregation
Before
After
Stone Corral HUC
35
Model Calibrated for Stone Corral
  • Regional water consumption and delivery within
    Sacramento-Stone Corral HUC corresponds to
    historic data.
  • Irrigation district level water consumption and
    delivery reflects historic observations.
  • Groundwater levels follow historic trend.

36
Future Work
  • Disaggregate and calibrate Lower Butte HUC
  • Run climate change scenarios
  • Modify Assumptions (e.g. add dynamic cropping
    patterns)
  • Perform economic assessment

37
Conclusions
  • The hydrology module is a powerful tool for
    considering changing catchment dynamics.
  • Hydrology is essential for conducting rigorous
    analysis of climate change impacts.
  • Hydrology could be very interesting for sectoral
    economic analysis because it considers several
    resources in a catchment, rainfed and irrigated
    agriculture, forest and range management, fish
    appropriate flows.
  • Increasing activity is taking place with the
    WEAP21 Framework in California, with the real
    potential to influence decision-making processes.
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