Predicted climate change and its impact on agriculture in Malaysia

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Predicted climate change and its impact on
agriculture in Malaysia
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MALAYSIAS CLIMATE

• Malaysia has a tropical climate hot and humid
• General characteristics
• uniform air temperature
• high humidity
• high and heavy rainfall
• low wind speed
• cloudy
• rarely clear skies even during drought periods

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INCREASING CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE
Reducing the Vulnerability of Agriculture and
Forestry Edited by James Salinger, M.V.K.
Sivakumar, and Raymond P. Motha Springer,
Netherlands, 2005
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Köppen Climate Classification System

• 5 climate regions
• A - Tropical Moist Climates all months have
  average temperatures above 18 Celsius
• B - Dry Climates with deficient precipitation
  during most of the year
• C - Moist Mid-latitude Climates with Mild Winters
• D - Moist Mid-Latitude Climates with Cold Winters
• E - Polar Climates with extremely cold winters
  and summers

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Mean annual cloud cover (1983-2008)
International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project
(ISCCP) http//isccp.giss.nasa.gov Rossow, W.B.,
and Schiffer, R.A., 1999 Advances in
Understanding Clouds from ISCCP. Bull. Amer.
Meteor. Soc., 80, 2261-2288.
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Mean for whole Earth 240 Wm-2 per day
http//www.scilogs.eu/en/blog/spacetimedreamer/200
9-06-15/the-sunniest-and-darkest-places-on-earth
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• Monthly relative humidty (RH)
• mean monthly 70 to 90
• difference between mean monthly min. and max. RH
  about 3-15
• usually min. RH in Jan-Feb
• except east coast Kelatan and Terengganu, min RH
  during March
• usually max. RH in Nov
• in Peninsular, average 84 in Feb. and 88 in
  Nov.
• but Northwest states in Peninsular 72 in Feb.
  and 87 in Nov

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• Daily RH
• Northwest states also has the highest diurnal
  variation in RH
• in dry months, min daily RH can be 42
• in wet months min daily RH can be as high as 70
• max daily RH does not vary much from place to
  place
• never below 94 RH

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• Annual air temperature
• Being near the equator, Malaysia has a uniform
  temperature throughout the year
• annual variation less than 2 ?C except for the
  east coast areas in Peninsular Malaysia which are
  affected by cold winds from Siberia during the
  northeast monsoon (lt 3 ?C variation)
• Daily air temperature
• typically varies between 20-30 ?C
• 5-10 ?C variation in coastal areas
• 8-12 ?C variation in inland areas
• very rarely above 38 ?C

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• Monthly air temperature
• Apr-May have the highest monthly air temperature
• Dec-Jan the lowest air temperature

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• Wind has four seasons southwest monsoon,
  northeast monsoon, and two other shorter
  intermonsoon seasons
• southwest monsoon
• May/June to Sept.
• lt 15 knots (note 1 knot 0.5 m s-1)
• northeast monsoon
• Nov to March
• 10-20 knots
• may reach 30 knots in east coast areas in
  Peninsular Malaysia
• cold winds from Siberia
• Apr-Nov, typhoon in neighbouring countries, may
  bring strong winds to Sabah and Sarawak (gt20
  knots)

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• Rainfall
• 2500 mm mean annual rainfall (note 1 mm 1 L or
  1 kg of water in 1 m2)
• affected by wind flow (monsoons) and topographic
  features
• Seasonal rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia
• A) East coast
• Nov-Jan wettest June-July driest
• B) Southwest areas
• Oct-Nov wettest Feb driest
• C) The rest
• 2 periods of maximum (Oct-Nov and Apr-May) and 2
  periods of minimum (Jan-Feb and Jun-July) rainfall

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• Seasonal rainfall in Sabah and Sarawak
• A) Coastal Sarawak and northeast Sabah
• Jan wettest
• June/July is the driest in Sarawak but April in
  Sabah
• Dec-Mar is the main source of rain for west
  Sarawak
• B) Inland Sarawak
• evenly distributed rain, slightly lower in
  Jun-Aug.
• hill slopes in inland Sarawak has the highest
  rainfall in Malaysia (e.g., Long Akah has gt5000
  mm annual rain)

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• C) Northwest coast Sabah
• 2 periods of maximum (Oct and June) and 2 periods
  of minimum (Feb and Aug) rainfall
• D) Central Sabah
• hilly and sheltered areas
• low rainfall and evenly distributed with less
  distinct 2 periods of maximum (May and Oct) and 2
  periods of minimum (Feb and Aug) rainfall
• E) Southern Sabah
• evenly distributed rain
• amount of rain received is like Central Sabah,
  but Feb-Apr is slightly drier than the rest of
  the year

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• Sunshine and solar radiation
• average 6 hours of sunshine (gt120 W m-2) per day
• Alor Setar and Kota Bharu
• avg. 7 hours per day
• but 8.7 hours per day in Jan
• Kuching
• avg. 5 hours per day
• but 3.7 hours per day in Jan

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• Evaporation (ET)
• indicates amount of water loss by evaporation
  into the atmosphere
• affected by cloudiness and air temperature, also
  by RH and wind speed
• more clouds and high RH, less ET
• high temperature and high wind speed, more ET
• lowland areas 4 - 5 mm per day
• highland areas 2.5 mm per day

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Trends in climate change in Malaysia

• Temperature records in Malaysia in the last 50
  years have shown warming trends
• But insufficient data to determine whether the
  frequency of extreme events (e.g., drought,
  storms and floods) has indeed increased

Balanced scorecard for natural disaster
management projects Tun Lin Moe, Fritz Gehbauer
and Stefan Senitz Disaster Prevention and
Management Vol. 16 No. 5, 2007 785-806
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Landslide
A total of 19 natural disasters in Malaysia
(1968-2004) About one natural disaster every 2
years
Disaster types in Malaysia an overview Ibrahim
Mohamed Shaluf, Fakhru'l-Razi Ahmadun Disaster
Prevention and Management Volume 15 Issue 2,
2006, 286-298
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Linear Regression Line
Mean increase per decade 0.18 ?C
INCREASING CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE
Reducing the Vulnerability of Agriculture and
Forestry Edited by James Salinger, M.V.K.
Sivakumar, and Raymond P. Motha Springer,
Netherlands, 2005
20
INCREASING CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE
Reducing the Vulnerability of Agriculture and
Forestry Edited by James Salinger, M.V.K.
Sivakumar, and Raymond P. Motha Springer,
Netherlands, 2005
21
Climate Change Scenarios for Malaysia 2001-2099.
Scientific Report Malaysian Meteorological Dept.
(2009)
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Climate Change Scenarios for Malaysia 2001-2099.
Scientific Report Malaysian Meteorological Dept.
(2009)
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GLOBAL GLOBAL MALAYSIA
2050 2100 2050
Surface temperature (ºC) 1.6 2.8 1.5
Sea level rise (m) 0.21 to 0.48 -
Annual Rainfall 10 (Kelantan, Terengganu Pahang) -5 (Selangor Johor)
IPCC WG1 4TH ASESSMENT REPORT (AR4), 2007
STUDY ON IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HYDROLOGIC
REGIME AND WATER RESOURCES OF PENISULAR MALAYSIA,
NAHRIM, 2006 NAHRIM (National Hydraulic Research
Institute of Malaysia)
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Predicted monthly rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia
Region Mean monthly precipitation (mm) Mean monthly precipitation (mm)
Region Current 2025-2050
West Coast 179 176
Klang Valley 190 182
Selangor 190 181
Johor 187 180
Terengganu 289 299
Kelantan 222 240
Pahang 199 208
Perak 193 199
Kedah 174 177
Southern Peninsula 194 196
N. East Coast 260 282
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Serdang min. air temperature
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Serdang max. air temperature
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Serdang rainfall
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Serdang wind speed
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Serdang sunshine hour
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• Generally, crop yields in Malaysia would increase
  in
• higher CO2 concentrations, lower air
  temperatures, higher wind speeds, lower humidity
• more sunshine hours (or less clouds)
• greater solar radiation, greater energy for
  photosynthesis
• lower air pollutants
• more rainfall
• in normally dry areas, but may increase pests and
  diseases incidences
• or less rainfall
• in normally wet areas
• But these above factors interact with each other
  to affect yields
• so what is the net effect of climate change on
  yields?

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Effect of climate change on rubber
Yield in ton/ha/yr
INCREASING CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE
Reducing the Vulnerability of Agriculture and
Forestry Edited by James Salinger, M.V.K.
Sivakumar, and Raymond P. Motha Springer,
Netherlands, 2005
32

• Rubber flourishes in a tropical climate
• with a high mean daily air temperature of 25-28
  ?C
• high rainfall exceeding 2000 mm per year
• even distribution of rainfall with no dry seasons
  exceeding one month
• at least 2100 h of sunshine per year
• 5.75 h per day

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• If the mean daily air temperature increases by
  4.5 ?C above the mean annual temperature, more
  dry months and hence more moisture stress can
  occur
• A crop decrease of 315 due to drought
  conditions is projected if mean annual
  temperature increases to 31 ?C
• The degree of yield decrease will be dependent on
  clonal susceptibility, as well as the length and
  severity of the drought
• Some states may experience a reduction in
  production.
• It is projected that 273,000 ha of land, or 15
  of current rubber land, may be affected

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• If rainfall increases, loss of tapping days and
  crop washout occur
• Yield losses can range from 13 to 30
• If sea level rises by 1 m, low-lying areas may be
  flooded and rubber cultivation would not be
  possible in these areas

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Effect of climate change on oil palm
Yield in ton/ha/yr
INCREASING CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE
Reducing the Vulnerability of Agriculture and
Forestry Edited by James Salinger, M.V.K.
Sivakumar, and Raymond P. Motha Springer,
Netherlands, 2005
36

• Oil palm is best suited to a humid tropical
  climate in which
• rain occurs mostly at night and days are bright
  and sunny
• minimum monthly rainfall is around 1500 mm with
  absence of dry seasons
• an evenly distributed sunshine exceeding 2000 h
  per year
• A mean maximum temperature of about 2933 ?C and
  a mean minimum temperature of 2224 ?C favor the
  highest bunch production

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• A high mean annual temperature of 2831 ?C is
  favorable for high production
• If these higher temperatures lead to drought
  conditions, however, an estimated 208,000 ha of
  land or 12 of the present oil palm areas would
  be considered marginal-to-unsuitable for oil palm
  cultivation, particularly in drought-prone areas
• Increased rainfall favors oil palm productivity
  unless it leads to flooding
• With an anticipated sea level rise of 1 m, an
  estimated 100,000 ha of area, currently planted
  with oil palm, may be deemed unsuitable and would
  have to be abandoned

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Effect of climate change on cocoa
Yield in ton/ha/yr
INCREASING CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE
Reducing the Vulnerability of Agriculture and
Forestry Edited by James Salinger, M.V.K.
Sivakumar, and Raymond P. Motha Springer,
Netherlands, 2005
39

• Cocoa is planted in areas where annual rainfall
  is in the range of 12502800 mm
• Cocoa prefers areas where annual rainfall is in
  the range of 15002000 mm and the number of dry
  months is three or less
• It should not be planted in areas with annual
  rainfall below 1250 mm, unless irrigation is
  provided
• Areas with annual rainfall exceeding 2500 mm are
  also not favorable as it reduces yield by 1020
  due to water logging
• excessive rainfall causes high disease incidence,
  especially Phytophthora and pink diseases

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• Temperatures exceeding 32 ?C may result in
  moisture stress, leading to yield loss of 1020
• Based on these considerations, the states that
  experience a distinct dry season are marginal
  areas for cocoa cultivation
• Irrigation is required in these areas if cocoa is
  to be cultivated
• Some areas, which register high rainfall, are not
  suited for cocoa cultivation due to the high
  incidence of diseases
• This can result in yield loss of more than 20

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• With climate change, a high incidence of drought
  is expected to reduce yield
• On the other hand, excessive rainfall with
  reduced insolation can also result in low yields
• under such wet conditions, a high incidence of
  fungal diseases such as vascular streak disease
  and black pod can depress yields

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Effect of climate change on rice
Yield in ton/ha/yr
INCREASING CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE
Reducing the Vulnerability of Agriculture and
Forestry Edited by James Salinger, M.V.K.
Sivakumar, and Raymond P. Motha Springer,
Netherlands, 2005
43

• Rice constitutes 98 of total cereal production
  in Malaysia
• Generally, long periods of sunshine are favorable
  for high rice yields
• Growth is optimal when the daily air temperature
  is between 24 and 36 ?C. The difference between
  day and night temperatures must be minimal during
  flowering and grain production

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• Grain yields may decline by 910 for each 1 ?C
  rise in temperature
• If drought conditions are prolonged, the current
  flooded rice ecosystem can not be sustained. It
  may be necessary to develop non-flooded and dry
  land rice ecosystem to increase the level of
  national rice sufficiency
• a threat to national food security

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• Worlds ten largest producer of rice in 2008
• China (193.4 mil ton)
• India (148.3 mil ton)
• Indonesia (60.3 mil ton)
• Bangladesh (46.9 mil ton)
• Viet Nam (38.7 mil ton)
• Myanmar (30.5 mil ton)
• Thailand (30.5 mil ton)
• Philippines (16.8 mil ton)
• Brazil (12.1 mil ton)
• Japan (11.0 mil ton)
• 25. Malaysia (2.4 mil ton)

50 of worlds rice
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Rice productivity by country (1961-2008)
Australia and Japan most efficient countries,
but large variations year-on-year China rapid
steady increase (2.1 to 6.6 ton/ha between
1961-2008)
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Average rice productivity (2000-2008)
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Malaysia rice statistics
est. 2015
2008 0.67 mil. ha
2008 3.6 ton/ha 0.04 ton/ha per year
2008 2.5 mil. ton 28,300 ton per year
2008 86.0 kg/capita -1.0 kg/capita per year
est. 2015
est. 2015
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Malaysia self-sufficiency levels
Period self-sufficiency
1956-60 54
1961-65 60
1966-70 80
1971-75 87
1976-80 92
1981-85 77
1986-90 75
1991-95 76
1996-2000 71
2001-05 71
2006-08 72
Target 100 self-sufficient by 2015 Possible?
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Mean rice productivity increase per year
2.0 increase per year only (not 4.9 required
for 100 self sufficiency by 2015)
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Malaysias self sufficiency level
Year Fruits Veg. Beef Mutton Pork Poultry Eggs Dairy Fish
1990 110.4 75.2 23.8 10.5 113.9 106.3 109 4.3 91.1
1995 103 87 22 6 101 114 114 4 91
2000 91.3 88.5 22.7 6.4 80 127.8 139 4 89
2005 117 74 23 8 107 121 113 5 91
2007 105 89 25 9 106 121 114 5 97
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Malaysia agriculture land usage, 1960-2005
Emphasis is on industrial crops, not food crops