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Guidelines for Impact and

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Title: Guidelines for Impact and


1
UNFCCC Workshop on Methodologies on Climate
Change Impact and Adaptation / UNDP-GEF National
Communications Support Programme Workshop on
an Adaptation Policy Framework, Ste. Adèle,
Québec, Canada, 11-14 June 2001
Guidelines for Impact and Adaptation
Assessment Design versus Implementation Issues
RICHARD J.T. KLEIN
2
Guidelines for Impact and Adaptation Assessment
Design versus Implementation Issues
  • OUTLINE
  • Vulnerability Assessment What and Why?
  • The IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing
    Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation
  • The AIACC Framework
  • Conclusions

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Guidelines for Impact and Adaptation Assessment
Design versus Implementation Issues
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Guidelines for Impact and Adaptation Assessment
Design versus Implementation Issues
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Guidelines for Impact and Adaptation Assessment
Design versus Implementation Issues
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Guidelines for Impact and Adaptation Assessment
Design versus Implementation Issues
  • ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT
  • The practice of identifying options to adapt to
    climate change and evaluating them in terms of
    criteria such as availability, benefits, costs,
    effectiveness, efficiency and feasibility.
  • (IPCC, 2001)

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Guidelines for Impact and Adaptation Assessment
Design versus Implementation Issues
  • PURPOSE OF ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT
  • To contribute to vulnerability assessment by
    estimating the potential to reduce adverse
    impacts and benefit from positive impacts
  • To contribute to policymaking by recommending
    anticipatory adaptation measures, including their
    implementation considerations.

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Guidelines for Impact and Adaptation Assessment
Design versus Implementation Issues
  • THE IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDELINES (1994)
  • Define problem
  • Select method
  • Test method / sensitivity
  • Select scenarios
  • Assess biophysical impacts and socio-economic
    impacts
  • Assess autonomous adjustments
  • Evaluate adaptation strategies.

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Guidelines for Impact and Adaptation Assessment
Design versus Implementation Issues
  • EVALUATION OF ADAPTATION STRATEGIES
  • Define objectives
  • Specify important climatic impacts
  • Identify adaptation options
  • Examine constraints
  • Quantify measures / formulate alternative
    strategies
  • Weight objectives / evaluate trade-offs
  • Recommend adaptation measures.

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Guidelines for Impact and Adaptation Assessment
Design versus Implementation Issues
  • FROM ADAPTATION TO ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
  • Implicit in most vulnerability studies using the
    IPCC Technical Guidelines is the assumption that
    there are no constraints in implementing the
    adaptation options identified and analysed
  • Information on the extent to which mechanisms are
    in place and technologies, expertise and other
    resources are available is likely to give a more
    reliable picture of vulnerability to climate
    change.

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Guidelines for Impact and Adaptation Assessment
Design versus Implementation Issues
  • ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
  • The ability to plan, prepare for, facilitate and
    implement adaptation measures. Factors that
    determine adaptive capacity of human systems
    include economic wealth, technology, information
    and skills, infrastructure, institutions and
    equity.
  • (IPCC, 2001)

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Guidelines for Impact and Adaptation Assessment
Design versus Implementation Issues
  • LINK WITH TODAYS CLIMATE VARIABILITY
  • Analysis of a countrys ability to cope with
    impacts associated with todays natural climate
    variability can provide useful empirical
    information on its capacity to adapt to climate
    change.
  • It can also be the basis of a prioritisation of
    adaptation needs that will reduce vulnerability
    to both todays and tomorrows climate.

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Guidelines for Impact and Adaptation Assessment
Design versus Implementation Issues
Problem Definition (e.g., initial GCM results,
observations, stakeholder dialogue)
Project Scoping (e.g., sectoral sensitivity
analysis, stakeholder dialogue)
  • Impact Assessment
  • data collection
  • scenario development
  • model application
  • integrated impact analysis
  • Adaptation Assessment
  • data collection
  • evaluation of adaptation options
  • analysis of implementation constraints
  • assessment of adaptive capacity

Integrated Vulnerability Assessment
Academic Insights
Policy Recommendations
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Guidelines for Impact and Adaptation Assessment
Design versus Implementation Issues
  • CONCLUSIONS
  • The IPCC Technical Guidelines consider all
    relevant issues of adaptation assessment,
    including adaptive capacity.
  • The fact that adaptation needs follow from the
    impact assessment strongly reduces their policy
    relevance.
  • Consideration of vulnerability to climate
    variability along with climate change enables and
    encourages policy-relevant assessment of adaptive
    capacity.

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