8th National Conference on Science, Policy and the Environment Climate Change: Science and Solutions

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8th National Conference on Science, Policy and
the EnvironmentClimate Change Science and
SolutionsChallenges of GHG RulemakingJanuary
17, 2008
Remarks by Donald R. Arbuckle Public Affairs
Program University of Texas at Dallas
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The Role of Congress in GHS Rulemaking

• To state the obvious, all GHS rulemaking will
  originate from standards established by Congress
  in legislation.
• Legislation will be necessary to ensure long-term
  national commitment and prevent a fragmented
  legislative and regulatory framework.
• The more specific the legislation, the more
  focused rulemaking can be but, the more specific
  the legislation, the more risk of technological
  and political inflexibility.

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Generic Regulatory Standards

• In fact, the regulatory process is far more
  complicated than Phil Harters colorful and
  almost undecipherable slide, The Process!
• Many analytic and procedural standards, both
  statutory and administrative, govern rulemaking
• They have accumulated over the past 70 years and
  are aimed at improving the rigor of the
  rulemaking process.
• They also serve as obstacles that regulators must
  overcome and as mechanisms used by regulatory
  opponents to delay or defeat rulemaking.

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Executive Branch Regulatory Requirements

• Executive Order No. 12866 OMB Regulatory Review
  benefits of a proposed regulation must justify
  its costs, and the selected regulatory
  alternative must maximize net benefits. Market
  mechanisms favored.
• OMB Bulletin on Peer Review agencies must
  conduct meaningful peer review of the most
  important science disseminated by the Federal
  Government.
• OMB Memorandum on Risk Assessment lists general
  principles for risk assessment, management,
  communication, and priority setting.
• OMB Circular on Regulatory Analysis guidelines
  for conducting benefit-cost analysis.

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Statutory Generic Regulatory Standards

• Administrative Procedures Act NPRM, public
  comment. Arbitrary and capricious
• Paperwork Reduction Act federal information must
  minimize burden, reduce duplication, have
  practical utility, and be necessary for the
  proper performance of the agencys function.
• Unfunded Mandates Reform Act for unfunded
  mandates, agency shall select the least costly,
  most cost-effective or least burdensome
  alternative that achieves the objectives of the
  rule.
• Information Quality Act requires that agencies
  maximize the quality, objectivity, utility, and
  integrity of informationdisseminated by Federal
  agencies.

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GHS Rulemaking

• Despite obstacles, GHG regulation is possible. It
  will require
• clear statutory direction and continued
  Congressional support.
• political commitment by the president.
• statutory timetables must be reasonable.
  Hammers hated by regulators but can be
  effective.
• benefit-cost analysis, maximizing net benefits,
  market mechanisms, risk assessment, peer review,
  information quality are all components of a
  successful rulemaking.

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Carbon Reduction Regulatory Strategies Suggested
by Dr. Morgan

• Several approaches contain elements encouraged by
  important generic regulatory standards
• CO2 emissions tax is simple, relatively easy to
  enforce, economically efficient.
• Cap and trade uses market incentives to encourage
  compliance and has been used successfully the
  approach helps argue for maximizing net benefits.
• Both approaches establish performance standards
  that provide affected industries compliance
  flexibility and reward innovation.

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Problems to Overcome

• Regulatory Negotiation is powerful, but
• - difficult to represent all interested parties
  
• - who represents the public good?
• Valuing benefits of GHG reduction
• - costs are relatively easy to estimate. Will
  be huge, and immediate.
• - benefits far in the future and not associated
  with readily understandable social advantage,
  e.g., reduced mortality, improved human safety,
  stronger (or at least unharmed) economy.

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Problems to Overcome

• - caps how establish if value of benefits is
  not clear?
• - tax on CO2 emissions the T word.
• Maintaining Focus
• GHS reduction will be competing for national
  resources and political attention with problems
  such as health care, social security, homeland
  security, education, international affairs, and
  food, water, and transportation safety.
• Political resolve
• Our government operates under a constitutionally
  encouraged suspicion of its own activity and a
  2-year political time horizon.

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Conclusion

• Dramatic measures to fix the GHG problem are
  unlikely to prevail. More likely to succeed will
  be modest but broad first steps that establish a
  long term strategic path. That strategy must
  encourage periodic re-assessment of itself,
  maintain its flexibility, and foster and use
  future scientific and technological evolution.
• Most important the measures must provide an
  easily understandable political logic for future
  elected officials. We will need a GHG Marshall
  Plan.