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DOE-OBER Workshop on Science Challenges and Future Directions: Climate Change Integrated Assessment Research

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Title: DOE-OBER Workshop on Science Challenges and Future Directions: Climate Change Integrated Assessment Research


1
DOE-OBER Workshop onScience Challenges and
Future Directions Climate Change Integrated
Assessment Research
  • Bob Vallario
  • Office of Science
  • Office of Biological Environmental Research
  • September 1, 2009
  • bob.vallario_at_science.doe.gov

2
Workshop Purpose
  • Identify research needs and opportunities for
    understanding climate change Integrated
    Assessment.
  • Provide an assessment of where the science and
    technology now stand and where barriers to
    progress might exist
  • Describe potential directions for fundamental
    research that can be pursued to meet these goals

2
2 IARP
Department of Energy Office of Science
Biological and Environmental Research
Department of Energy Office of Science
Biological and Environmental Research
3
Workshop Scope
  • Explore research ideas and emphases that will
    help shape the future of the IARP and respond to
    the rapidly changing scientific questions and
    challenges.  
  • Address needs from global and national to
    regional and local scales and connections between
    the Integrated Assessment Modeling Earth System
    Modeling and Impact, Adaptation, and
    Vulnerability modeling communities. 
  • Strengthen the scientific foundations and rigor
    upon which Integrated Assessment is based and
    look boldly and comprehensively at the research
    needs that the nation must address to move
    forward in mitigation, vulnerability, and
    adaptation planning. 

Department of Energy Office of Science
Biological and Environmental Research
3 IARP
4
Workshop Logistics
  • November 1314, 2008
  • Key Bridge Marriott, Arlington, VA
  • General introduction and overview sessions,
    followed by nine focused technical sessions,
    concluding with wrap-up session and report out by
    rapporteurs

Department of Energy Office of Science
Biological and Environmental Research
4 IARP
5
Workshop Leadership
  • External Chair
  • Anthony C. Janetos, Joint Global Change Research
    Institute
  • Session Co-Leads
  • Leon Clarke, Joint Global Change Research
    Institute
  • Bill Collins, Lawrence Berkeley National
    Laboratory
  • Kris Ebi, ESS, LLC
  • Jae Edmonds, Joint Global Change Research
    Institute
  • Ian Foster, Argonne National Laboratory
  • Jake Jacoby, Massachusetts Institute of
    Technology
  • Ken Judd, Stanford University
  • Ruby Leung, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Department of Energy Office of Science
Biological and Environmental Research
5 IARP
6
Workshop Leadership (Contd.)
  • Session Co-Leads
  • Richard Newell, Duke University
  • Dennis Ojima, The H. John Heinz III Center for
    Science, Economics, and the
    Environment
  • Graham Pugh, U.S. DOE, U.S. Climate Change
    Technology Program
  • Alan Sanstad, Lawrence Berkeley National
    Laboratory
  • Peter Schultz, U.S. Global Change Research
    Program
  • Rick Stevens, Argonne National Laboratory
  • John Weyant, Stanford University
  • Tom Wilbanks, Oak Ridge National Laboratory
  • Climate and Environmental Sciences Division
    (BER)
  • Robert Vallario, Program Manager

Department of Energy Office of Science
Biological and Environmental Research
6 IARP
7
Working Groups or Breakouts
  • Decision Support and the Frontiers of Integrating
    Systems Science
  • The Grand Challenges of Impacts, Adaptations and
    Vulnerabilities
  • Research Needs for Mitigation
  • Scales Regional and Next-Generation Sectoral
    Modeling at Finer Time Scales

Department of Energy Office of Science
Biological and Environmental Research
7 IARP
8
Working Groups or Breakouts (Contd.)
  • Collaborations and Interoperable Frameworks for
    the New Science Challenges
  • Understanding the Role of Transformational
    Science and Technology
  • Critical Challenges for Integrated Assessment
    Data and Data Management
  • New Frontiers in Risk, Uncertainty, Testing and
    Diagnostic Methods
  • New Horizons in Integrated Assessment
    Foundational Research

Department of Energy Office of Science
Biological and Environmental Research
8 IARP
9
Workshop Participants
Don Anderson NASA Peter Backlund University
Corp. for Atmospheric Research Anjuli
Bamzai DOE Rona Birnmaum EPA Lawrence
Buja University Corp. for Atmospheric
Research Leon Clarke Pacific Northwest Natl.
Lab Roger Dahlman DOE William Drew
Collins Lawrence Berkeley Natl. Lab Roger
Cook Resources for the Future Kristie Ebi ESS,
LLC James Edmonds Pacific Northwest Natl.
Lab Brian Flannery ExxonMobil Wanda
Ferrell DOE Ian Foster Argonne Natl.
Lab Charlette Geffen Pacific Northwest Natl.
Lab Anne Grambsche EPA Henry Jacoby Massachuset
ts Institute of Technology
Department of Energy Office of Science
Biological and Environmental Research
9 IARP
10
Workshop Participants (Contd.)
Anthony Janetos Pacific Northwest Natl.
Lab Kenneth Judd Stanford University Jack
Kaye NASA Michael Kuperberg DOE Chet
Koblinsky NOAA Ruby Leung Pacific Northwest
Natl. Lab Liz Moyer University of
Chicago Richard Newell Duke University Dennis
Ojima The Heinz Center Brian ONeill University
Corp. for Atmospheric Research Anna
Palmisano DOE Graham Pugh DOE Walter
Robinson NSF Alan Sanstad Lawrence Berkeley
Natl. Lab Peter Schultz US Global Change
Research Program Pam Stephens NSF
Department of Energy Office of Science
Biological and Environmental Research
10 IARP
11
Workshop Participants (Contd.)
Rick Stevens Argonne Natl. Lab David
Thomassen DOE Robert Vallario DOE Mort
Webster Massachusetts Institute of
Technology John Weyant Stanford University Tom
Wilbanks Oak Ridge Natl. Lab
Department of Energy Office of Science
Biological and Environmental Research
11 IARP
12
Workshop Context
  • At the most general level, the field of
    Integrated Assessment is focused on
  • Understanding and modeling the complex
    interactions of human and natural systems
  • Exploring developmental pathways, emissions, the
    role of energy innovations, and mitigation
    strategies
  • Providing insights into climate change impacts,
    adaptations, and the effects of combined,
    multiple stressors
  • Developing global, national, and regional
    perspectives within economic, risk and other
    policy-relevant frameworks

Department of Energy Office of Science
Biological and Environmental Research
Department of Energy Office of Science
Biological and Environmental Research
12 IARP
13
Workshop Context (contd.)
Department of Energy Office of Science
Biological and Environmental Research
Department of Energy Office of Science
Biological and Environmental Research
13 IARP
14
Working Group 1 Mitigation, Transformational
Science and Technology, and Complex Interactions
  • Linkages and dynamics of combined mitigation and
    adaptation
  • Natural resources and other issues at larger
    scales (e.g., the energy-water-land interface)
  • Understanding and modeling of the translational
    of scientific discovery into technology and
    systems innovation
  • Use of IAMs to develop insights into interactions
    among different components of the human-climate
    system

Department of Energy Office of Science
Biological and Environmental Research
14 IARP
15
Working Group 1 Mitigation, Transformational
Science and Technology, and Complex Interactions
Department of Energy Office of Science
Biological and Environmental Research
15 IARP
16
Working Group 2 Impacts, Adaptations, and
Vulnerabilities
  • Incorporation of separately developed impact
    domain models
  • Incorporation of IAV knowledge that is not fully
    represented in IAV models
  • Alternative metrics
  • Improved understanding of multiple interacting
    stresses
  • Regional and local heterogeneity and data
  • Tipping points and nonlinear dynamics

Department of Energy Office of Science
Biological and Environmental Research
16 IARP
17
Working Group 3 Spatial and Temporal Resolution
  • Process scaling and nonlinearities
  • Interfaces among physical, economic, and IAV
    model components
  • Data matching (to scales)
  • Scale and model uncertainties

Department of Energy Office of Science
Biological and Environmental Research
17 IARP
18
Working Group 3 Spatial and Temporal Resolution
Global With Coarse Resolution
IAMs
ESMs
New Generation Global with Fine Resolution
Impacts, Adaptation Vulnerability Models And
Studies
Regional Climate Models
Regional IAMs?
Highly-resolved Regional Models
Department of Energy Office of Science
Biological and Environmental Research
18 IARP
19
Working Group 4 Risk, Uncertainty, and
Diagnostic Methods
  • Modeling of risk and quantification of different
    kinds of uncertainty relating to data,
    parameters, and model structure
  • Interpretation of and communication of risk and
    uncertainty
  • Propagation of uncertainty across model
    components
  • Validation confronting models with data and
    observations
  • Model intercomparisons

Department of Energy Office of Science
Biological and Environmental Research
19 IARP
20
Working Group 4 Risk, Uncertainty, and
Diagnostic Methods
Department of Energy Office of Science
Biological and Environmental Research
20 IARP
21
Working Group 5 Interoperable and Accessible
Modeling Frameworks
  • Interoperable input and output detail, time
    steps, and scales
  • Interdisciplinary modeling environments
  • Agile modeling frameworks for approaching
    questions of different user communities
  • Community modeling approaches
  • Multiple models for scientific learning
  • Enabling computation and networks
    (high-performance computing)

Department of Energy Office of Science
Biological and Environmental Research
21 IARP
22
Working Group 5 Interoperable and Accessible
Modeling Frameworks
Department of Energy Office of Science
Biological and Environmental Research
22 IARP
23
Working Group 6 Data Development and
Accessibility
  • Observations harmonizing regional data, dealing
    with sparse data sets, and incorporating and
    querying very large datasets
  • Data quality and verification
  • Data management, distribution, and access
  • Supporting cyber-infrastructure

Department of Energy Office of Science
Biological and Environmental Research
23 IARP
24
Outcomes
  • Workshop report completed in June 2009
  • Posted at http//www.sc.doe.gov/ober/BER_workshop
    s.html
  • Printed copies and CDs available
  • Distribution to participants
  • Planned distribution within the USGCRP
  • Other, select opportunities for communication as
    appropriate
  • Using results for program planning

Department of Energy Office of Science
Biological and Environmental Research
24 IARP
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