CLIMATE RISK: REVIEW OF PROGRESS IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

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CLIMATE RISK REVIEW OF PROGRESS IN SCIENCE AND
TECHNOLOGY

• L.A.OGALLO
• IGAD CLIMATE AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE (ICPAC)
  www.icpac.net
• Dept. of Met. University of Nairobi

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• KEY ISSUES
• Review of Progress of S T issues in support of
  Climate risk reduction
• GLOBAL FRAMEWORK FOR CLIMATE SERVICES (GFCS) An
  international framework to guide the development
  of climate services (UN system /WMO and all)
  WCC-3 plus recent WMO documents
• Challenges of developing countries

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• Climate risks in developing countries
• Economic losses as percent of GDP eg one cyclone
  10 GDP lost One flood 15 on national economy
  (GDP) - followed immediately with severe drought
  lasting five years wiping serving livelihoods
  left by floods )
• Roles of Non climate hazards Need for integrated
  Disaster risk reduction
• No sustainable development can be achieved within
  DRR

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Infrastructure and Industry
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SOCIO - ECONOMIC IMPACTS
Agriculture Food Security
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Knowledge of interactions at Global, Regional
and Local level
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• Research, S T Advance understanding /
  knowledge of Climate Risk
• Hazards Values at risks, Vulnerability vs
  capacity
• Mapping at global, regional and local levers
• Improved understanding of Causes and Linkages
• New tools and methods eg impacts, vulnerability,
  adaptation
• GIS
• Experience from WMO regional centres

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Examples of Floods are followed by droughts in
Greater Horn of Africa
Need to understand extremes, predict and early
warn
Know the hazards well and the interactions
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Precipitation anomalies during El Niño in Winter
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• Key progress areas
• Observations (GCOS, GOOS, GTOS,GEOSS------)
  re-analysed data, and enhanced monitoring (space
  based technology)
• Data recovery, Data base archiving, and
  providing historical baseline references
• Modeling and prediction
• Early warning
• Availability of regional / sector specific down
  scaled climate products
• Dissemination and exchange of climate information
  and services

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• Progress in Climate risk reduction
• Networking and coordination (WMO system)
• Capacity building
• Linkages with users to reduce climate risks
• Institutional framework Global , regional
  National, and LOCAL climate services
• Partnerships for pilot demonstrations
• Climate change challenges vs DRR
• Low Science and technological support to climate
  risk reduction

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GLOBAL FRAMEWORK FOR CLIMATE SERVICES (GFCS) -An
international framework to guide the development
of climate services (UN system /WMO and
all) -Framework to link climate science,
developments in S T with all climate related
risks (climate variability, change and DRR)
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• Climate services including integrated Disaster
  risk reduction
• (Three tie WMO system)
• WMO Global Producing Centres for Long Range
  Forecasts
• WMO Regional climate Centres of excellence
• National Meteorological and hydrological services
  (NMHSs)
• LOCAL COMMUNITY LEVEL not very clear left to
  regional climate centres

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Global Producing Centres for Long Range Forecasts
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2M Temperature (MAM 2010)
Operational activities for long-range forecasting
Exeter
Melbourne
ECMWF
Beijing
Washington
Montreal
Moscow
Seoul
Toulouse
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Rainfall (MAM 2010)
Beijing
Melbourne
Exeter
ECMWF
Toulouse
Washington
Montreal
Moscow
Seoul
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10 ICPAC MEMBER COUNTRIES
Sudan
Eritrea
Djibouti
Ethiopia
Somalia
Uganda
Kenya
Rwanda
Burundi
Tanzania
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RCOFs based Food Security outlooks FEWS/ NET
Most-likely scenario
MAM 2010
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Regional Climate Outlook Forums
SEECOF (Southeastern Europe)
FOCRAII (Asia)
CCOF (Caribbean)
SASCOF (India)
PRESAO (West Africa)
FCCA (Central America)
GHACOF (Greater Horn of Africa)
PRESAC (Central Africa)
PICOF (Pacific Islands)
SARCOF (Southern Africa)
WCSACOF (Western Coast of South America)
SSACOF (Southeast of South America)
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• Science and technology needs and Gaps
• Observations and data recovery / archiving
• Regional data base and data management
• Modeling, prediction and early warning
• Computing and related needs

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- Lack of integrated DRR and S T policies (No
clear linkages / clear policy for integration
with DRR and S T innovations) - Knowing
regional / local hazards (Quantification of
hazards, vulnerability) - Human and technical
capacity Multi / Inter disciplinary
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• Low investments in research, S T
• (Lack policy on Research, S T largely
  sectors specific , driven by individuals)
• Weak National /regional Institutions , with
  minimum network with universities, and community
  based systems that could be used to demonstrate
  good practices
• Climate change challenges
• scenarios projections

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• Lack of capability to use the available S T and
  climate information
• Role of local/ Indigenous knowledge in DRR
• Finance Opportunities eg climate fund
• Regional Collaborations / coordination and
  networks
• Assessment of existing capacity
• Enhance capacity of exiting institutions for
  multi disciplinary DDR approaches (eg The African
  regional centres)

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• CONCLUSION
• Role that S T can play has been demonstrated
• Limitation of developing countries to take
  advantage of available S T in DRR
• Regional Efforts Ministerial conferences for MET
  and DRR AUC workshop on the Global platform
• Global DRR Platform provide a framework for
  ensuring ST to DRR in developing countries.
  These should include support for local / regional
  research and capacity building together with ST
  innovations for local solutions

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Thank you ALL