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CLIMATE RISK: REVIEW OF PROGRESS IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

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climate risk: review of progress in science and technology l.a.ogallo igad climate and applications centre (icpac) www.icpac.net dept. of met. – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: CLIMATE RISK: REVIEW OF PROGRESS IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY


1
CLIMATE RISK REVIEW OF PROGRESS IN SCIENCE AND
TECHNOLOGY
  • L.A.OGALLO
  • IGAD CLIMATE AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE (ICPAC)
    www.icpac.net
  • Dept. of Met. University of Nairobi

2
  • KEY ISSUES
  • Review of Progress of S T issues in support of
    Climate risk reduction
  • GLOBAL FRAMEWORK FOR CLIMATE SERVICES (GFCS) An
    international framework to guide the development
    of climate services (UN system /WMO and all)
    WCC-3 plus recent WMO documents
  • Challenges of developing countries

3
  • Climate risks in developing countries
  • Economic losses as percent of GDP eg one cyclone
    10 GDP lost One flood 15 on national economy
    (GDP) - followed immediately with severe drought
    lasting five years wiping serving livelihoods
    left by floods )
  • Roles of Non climate hazards Need for integrated
    Disaster risk reduction
  • No sustainable development can be achieved within
    DRR

4
Infrastructure and Industry
5
SOCIO - ECONOMIC IMPACTS
Agriculture Food Security
6
Knowledge of interactions at Global, Regional
and Local level
7
  • Research, S T Advance understanding /
    knowledge of Climate Risk
  • Hazards Values at risks, Vulnerability vs
    capacity
  • Mapping at global, regional and local levers
  • Improved understanding of Causes and Linkages
  • New tools and methods eg impacts, vulnerability,
    adaptation
  • GIS
  • Experience from WMO regional centres

8

Examples of Floods are followed by droughts in
Greater Horn of Africa
Need to understand extremes, predict and early
warn
Know the hazards well and the interactions
9
Precipitation anomalies during El Niño in Winter
10
(No Transcript)
11
  • Key progress areas
  • Observations (GCOS, GOOS, GTOS,GEOSS------)
    re-analysed data, and enhanced monitoring (space
    based technology)
  • Data recovery, Data base archiving, and
    providing historical baseline references
  • Modeling and prediction
  • Early warning
  • Availability of regional / sector specific down
    scaled climate products
  • Dissemination and exchange of climate information
    and services

12
  • Progress in Climate risk reduction
  • Networking and coordination (WMO system)
  • Capacity building
  • Linkages with users to reduce climate risks
  • Institutional framework Global , regional
    National, and LOCAL climate services
  • Partnerships for pilot demonstrations
  • Climate change challenges vs DRR
  • Low Science and technological support to climate
    risk reduction

13
GLOBAL FRAMEWORK FOR CLIMATE SERVICES (GFCS) -An
international framework to guide the development
of climate services (UN system /WMO and
all) -Framework to link climate science,
developments in S T with all climate related
risks (climate variability, change and DRR)
14
  • Climate services including integrated Disaster
    risk reduction
  • (Three tie WMO system)
  • WMO Global Producing Centres for Long Range
    Forecasts
  • WMO Regional climate Centres of excellence
  • National Meteorological and hydrological services
    (NMHSs)
  • LOCAL COMMUNITY LEVEL not very clear left to
    regional climate centres

15
Global Producing Centres for Long Range Forecasts
16
2M Temperature (MAM 2010)
Operational activities for long-range forecasting
Exeter
Melbourne
ECMWF
Beijing
Washington
Montreal
Moscow
Seoul
Toulouse
17
Rainfall (MAM 2010)
Beijing
Melbourne
Exeter
ECMWF
Toulouse
Washington
Montreal
Moscow
Seoul
18
(No Transcript)
19
10 ICPAC MEMBER COUNTRIES
Sudan
Eritrea
Djibouti
Ethiopia
Somalia
Uganda
Kenya
Rwanda
Burundi
Tanzania
20
(No Transcript)
21
(No Transcript)
22
(No Transcript)
23
RCOFs based Food Security outlooks FEWS/ NET
Most-likely scenario
MAM 2010
24
Regional Climate Outlook Forums
SEECOF (Southeastern Europe)
FOCRAII (Asia)
CCOF (Caribbean)
SASCOF (India)
PRESAO (West Africa)
FCCA (Central America)
GHACOF (Greater Horn of Africa)
PRESAC (Central Africa)
PICOF (Pacific Islands)
SARCOF (Southern Africa)
WCSACOF (Western Coast of South America)
SSACOF (Southeast of South America)
25
  • Science and technology needs and Gaps
  • Observations and data recovery / archiving
  • Regional data base and data management
  • Modeling, prediction and early warning
  • Computing and related needs

26
- Lack of integrated DRR and S T policies (No
clear linkages / clear policy for integration
with DRR and S T innovations) - Knowing
regional / local hazards (Quantification of
hazards, vulnerability) - Human and technical
capacity Multi / Inter disciplinary
27
  • Low investments in research, S T
  • (Lack policy on Research, S T largely
    sectors specific , driven by individuals)
  • Weak National /regional Institutions , with
    minimum network with universities, and community
    based systems that could be used to demonstrate
    good practices
  • Climate change challenges
  • scenarios projections

28
  • Lack of capability to use the available S T and
    climate information
  • Role of local/ Indigenous knowledge in DRR
  • Finance Opportunities eg climate fund
  • Regional Collaborations / coordination and
    networks
  • Assessment of existing capacity
  • Enhance capacity of exiting institutions for
    multi disciplinary DDR approaches (eg The African
    regional centres)

29
  • CONCLUSION
  • Role that S T can play has been demonstrated
  • Limitation of developing countries to take
    advantage of available S T in DRR
  • Regional Efforts Ministerial conferences for MET
    and DRR AUC workshop on the Global platform
  • Global DRR Platform provide a framework for
    ensuring ST to DRR in developing countries.
    These should include support for local / regional
    research and capacity building together with ST
    innovations for local solutions

30
Thank you ALL
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