Assessment of the impacts of and adaptations to climate change in the plantation sector, with partic

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TREND ANALYSIS FOR TEA GROWING AREAS contd.
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TREND ANALYSIS FOR TEA GROWING AREAS contd.
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TREND ANALYSIS FOR TEA GROWING AREAS contd.
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TREND ANALYSIS FOR COCONUT GROWING AREAS
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TREND ANALYSIS FOR COCONUT GROWING AREAS contd.
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SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT
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Scenario Development
Baseline Climate
GCM Validation
Regenalisation
Regenalisation
Direct GCM Or interpolated
Dynamical Methods
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Downscaling in Brief
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Criteria for selection of Downscaling method

• Availability
• Suitability/Feasibility

Therefore SDSM has been selected
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SDSM ( Statistical Downscaling Method)
This has an ability to develop climate scenarios
at a single-site of daily surface climate
variables under current and future climate
forcing.
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Data input for SDSM

• Baseline Climatological data (1961-1990)
• NCEP Reanalysis data (1961-1990)
• Global Circulation Model (2020 and 2050)

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Problems encountered

• Lack of computerized data (some data still in
  hard copies)
• Unavailability of NCEP Reanalysis data and GCM
  outputs. (These
• will be made available at http//www.cics.uvic.ca
  in near future)

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Contd.

• Downloading NCEP and GCM data has to be postponed
  for about
• two months due to the delay of Establishment of
  Canadian web
• site on NCEP/GCM data to the area which covers
  Sri Lanka.
• Downloading of NCEP and GCM from other web sites
  is also not
• possible, Because it gives outputs for the
  whole globe but not for
• the area which we are interested.

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Problems anticipated
Since SDSM generates site specific scenarios,
spatial interpolations will have to be carried
out to get the spatial distribution over a
particular area or country GIS/Surfer will be
used to overcome this problem
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Thank You