Decision Tools to Evaluate Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change The Water Resource Sector

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Decision Tools to Evaluate Vulnerabilities and
Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change The
Water Resource Sector
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Outline

• Vulnerability and adaptation with respect to
  water resources
• Viewing water resources from a services
  perspective
• Hydrologic implications of climate change for
  water resources
• Tools/models
• WEAP model presentation
• Role for Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA)

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Effective VA Assessments

• Defining VA assessment
• Often VA focuses on analysis over assessment
• Why? Because the focus is on biophysical impacts,
  e.g., hydrologic response, crop yields, forests,
  etc.
• Assessment is an integrating process requiring
  the interface of physical and social science and
  public policy

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Effective VA Assessments (continued)

• General questions
• What is the assessment trying to influence?
• How can the science/policy interface be most
  effective?
• How can the participants be most effective in the
  process?
• General problems
• Participants bring differing objectives/
  expertise
• These differences often lead to dissention/
  differing opinions this is where MCA can help
  in prioritization

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Effective VA Assessments (continued)

• To be valuable, the assessment process requires
• Relevancy
• Credibility
• Legitimacy
• Consistent participation
• An interdisciplinary process
• The assessment process often requires a tool
• The tool is usually a model or suite of models
• These models serve as the interface
• This interface is a bridge for dialogue between
  scientists and policy makers

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The Water Resource SectorWaters Trade-Off
Landscape
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Water Resources from a Services Perspective

• Not just an evaluation of rainfall-runoff or
  streamflow
• But an evaluation of the potential impacts of
  global warming on the goods and services provided
  by freshwater systems

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Freshwater Ecosystem Services
Extractable Direct Use Indirect Use
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Water Resources A Critical VA Sector

• Critical to both managed and natural systems
• Human activity influences both systems

Managed Systems
External Pressure
Product, good or service Process Control
services
Example Agriculture
Example Wetlands
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Hydrologic External Pressures related to
Climate Change

• Precipitation amount
• Global average increase
• Marked regional differences
• Precipitation frequency and intensity
• Less frequent, more intense (Trenberth et al.,
  2003)
• Evaporation and transpiration
• Increase total evaporation
• Regional complexities due to plant/atmosphere
  interactions

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Specific Pressures Retreating Himalayan glaciers

• Forecasts of 25 losses globally by 2050 50 by
  2100

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Specific Pressures Retreating Himalayan glaciers

• Meltwaters are depended upon during dry season to
  sustain low flow periods
• Probable diminished volume and earlier timing of
  flows
• Has implications for hydropower production,
  agricultural demands, and river and riparian
  quality and ecosystem needs

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Specific Pressures Sea level rise

• Sea level could rise by as much as 50 cm by 2100
  (IPCC, 2001)
• For islands, coasts
• sea level rise, inundation of coast lines, and
  decreasing infiltration of precipitation will
  lead to shrinking groundwater lenses
• Displacement of people will cause new localized
  stresses on water resource allocation
• water tables may rise to land surface, causing
  full evapotranspiration and diminished water
  quality (Burns 2000)

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Specific Pressures Extreme weather

• Typhoons and cyclones could increase by 50-60
  (NASA, 2001), with intensities increasing by
  10-20 (IPCC 2001).
• Possible doubling of frequency of 100 mm/day
  rainfall events and 15-18 increase in rainfall
  intensity over large areas of the Pacific (IPCC
  2001).
• This may lead to greater soil erosion and runoff,
  and less water available for infiltration and
  evapotranspiration

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Examples of Adaptation in Water Resources

• Construction/modification of physical
  infrastructure
• Canal linings
• Closed conduits instead of open channels
• Integrating separate reservoirs into a single
  system
• Reservoirs/hydro-plants/delivery systems
• Raising dam wall height
• Increasing canal size
• Removing sediment from reservoirs for more
  storage
• Inter-basin water transfers

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Examples of Adaptation in Water Resources
(continued)

• Adaptive management of existing water supply
  systems
• Change operating rules
• Use conjunctive surface/groundwater supply
• Physically integrate reservoir operation system
• Coordinate supply/demand
• Indigenous options

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Examples of Adaptation in Water Resources
(continued)

• Policy, conservation, efficiency, and technology
• Domestic
• Municipal and in-home re-use of water
• Leak repair
• Rainwater collection for non-potable uses
• Low-flow appliances
• Dual-supply systems (potable and nonpotable)
• Agriculture
• Irrigation timing and efficiency
• Drainage re-use, use of wastewater effluent
• High value/low water use crops
• Drip, micro-spray, low-energy, precision
  application irrigation systems
• Salt-tolerant crops that can use drain water

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Examples of Adaptation Water Supply (continued)

• Policy, conservation, efficiency, and technology
  (continued)
• Industry
• Water re-use and recycling
• Closed cycle and/or air cooling
• More efficient hydropower turbines
• Cooling ponds, wet towers and dry towers
• Energy (hydropower)
• Reservoir re-operation
• Cogeneration (beneficial use of waste heat)
• Additional reservoirs and hydropower stations
• Low head run of the river hydropower
• Market/price-driven transfers to other activities
• Using water price to shift water use between
  sectors

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Tools in Water Resource VA Studies

• What tools are available to understand both water
  resource vulnerabilities and evaluate adaptation
  strategies?
• How can stakeholders be engaged in these
  processes?

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Types of Water Resources Models

• Hydraulic biophysical process models describing
  streamflow, flooding
• Hydrology rainfall/runoff processes
• Planning water resource systems models
• Which model?...
• What questions are you trying to answer?

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Hydraulic Model

• Critical questions
• How fast, deep is river flowing
• How do changes to flow and channel morphology
  impact sediment transport and services provided
  (fish habitats, recreation, etc).

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Hydrology Model

• Critical questions
• How does rainfall on a catchment translate into
  flow in a river?
• What pathways does water follow as it moves
  through a catchment?
• How does movement along these pathways impact the
  magnitude, timing, duration, and frequency of
  river flows, as well as water quality?

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Planning Model

• Critical questions
• How should water be allocated to various uses in
  time of shortage?
• How can these operations be constrained to
  protect the services provided by the river?
• How should infrastructure in the system (e.g.,
  dams, diversion works) be operated to achieve
  maximum benefit (economic, social, ecological)?
• How will allocation, operations, and operating
  constraints change if new management strategies
  are introduced into the system?

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Tools to Use for the Assessment Referenced Water
Models

• Operational and hydraulic
• HEC
• HEC-HMS event-based rainfall-runoff (provides
  input to HEC-RAS for doing 1-d flood inundation
  mapping)
• HEC-RAS one-dimensional steady and unsteady
  flow
• HEC-ResSim reservoir operation modeling
• WaterWare
• RiverWare
• MIKE11
• Delft3d

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Hydraulic Water Management Model

• HEC-HMS watershed scale, event based hydrologic
  simulation, of rainfall-runoff processes
• Sub-daily rainfall-runoff processes of small
  catchments
• Free, download from web

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Tools to Use for the Assessment Referenced Water
Models (continued)

• Planning/ hydrology
• WEAP21
• Aquarius
• SWAT
• IRAS (Interactive River and Aquifer Simulation)
• RIBASIM
• MIKE 21 and BASIN

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Current Focus Planning and Hydrologic
Implications of Climate Change

• Selected planning/hydrology models can be
  deployed on PC, extensive documentation, ease of
  use, free (or free to developing nations)
• Aquarius
• SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool)
• WEAP21 (Water Evaluation and Planning)

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Physical Hydrology and Water Management Models

• AQUARIS advantage Has economic efficiency
  criterion requiring the reallocation of stream
  flows until the net marginal return in all water
  uses is equal
• Cannot be climatically driven flows prescribed
  by user
• Economic focus

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Physical Hydrology and Water Management Models
(continued)

• SWAT advantage
• Can predict effect of management decisions on
  water, sediment, nutrient and pesticide yields on
  ungauged river basins. Considers complex water
  quality constituents.
• Rainfall-runoff, river routing on a daily
  timestep
• Focuses on supply side of water balance

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Physical Hydrology and Water Management Models
(continued)

• WEAP21 advantage Seamlessly integrates watershed
  hydrologic processes with water resources
  management
• Can be climatically driven
• Based on holistic approach of integrated water
  resources management (IWRM) supply and demand

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IWRM Principles

• Freshwater is finite and has economic and social
  value in its competing uses
• Water is essential to sustain life and safe water
  should be accessible to all
• Water development and management should be
  participatory, involving users, planners, policy
  makers at all levels and recognize that women in
  particular play a central role in water provision
  for their families.

1992 International Conference on Water and
Environment, Dublin, Ireland
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IWRM Principles

• Promotes the coordinated development and
  management of land, water and related resources
  to maximize social and economic welfare in
  equitable way without comprising sustainability
• Cross-sectoral integration in water policy
  development

Global Water Partnership
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IWRM Resources
Global Water Partnership at www.gwp.forum.org
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Overview WEAP21

• Hydrology and planning
• Planning (water distribution) examples and
  exercises
• Adding hydrology to the model
• User interface
• Scale
• Data requirements and resources
• Calibration and validation
• Results
• Scenarios
• Licensing and registration

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A Simple System with WEAP21
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An Infrastructure Constraint
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A Regulatory Constraint
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Different Priorities

• For example, the demands of large farmers (70
  units) might be Priority 1 in one scenario
  whereas the demands of smallholders (40 units)
  may be Priority 1 in another

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Different Preferences
30
10

• For example, a center pivot operator may prefer
  to take water from a tributary because of lower
  pumping costs

0
90
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WEAP and Planning

• Provides a common framework for transparently
  organizing water resource data at any scale
  desired local watershed, regional or
  transboundary river basin
• Scenarios can be easily developed to explore
  possible water futures
• Implications of various policies can be evaluated

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WEAP Capabilities

• Can do
• High level planning at local and regional scales
• Demand management
• Water allocation
• Infrastructure evaluation

• Cannot do
• Sub-daily operations
• Optimization of supply and demand (e.g. cost
  minimizations or social welfare maximization)

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Uses of WEAP

• Policy Research
• Alternative Allocations
• Climate Change
• Land Use Change
• Infrastructure Planning
• Capacity Building
• Negotiation
• Stakeholder Engagement

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WEAP is Scenario-driven

• The scenario editor readily accommodates analysis
  of
• Climate change scenarios and assumptions
• Future demand assumptions
• Future watershed development assumptions

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Futures and Scenarios Why?

• Scenarios a systematic way of thinking about the
  future
• To gain a better understanding of the possible
  implications of decisions (or non-decisions
  across scales and time
• To support decision-making

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Driving Forces

• Technological
• Computer and information technology
• Biotechnology
• Miniaturization
• Environmental/Climatic
• Increasing global stress
• Local degradation
• Some remediation in richer countries
• Governance
• Global institutions
• Democratic government
• Role for civil society in decision-making

• Demographic
• More people
• Urbanization
• Older
• Economic
• Growing integration of global economy
• Social
• Increasing inequality
• Persistent poverty
• Cultural
• Spread of values of consumerism and individualism
• Nationalist and religious reaction

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Who are the Actors?

• Government
• Private sector
• Civil society
• Public

• Rich farmers
• Poor farmers
• Urban users
• Environmentalists
• Or?

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Consider Sources of Uncertainty
Ignorance
Understanding is limited
Surprise
The unexpected and the novel can alter directions

Volition
Human choice matters
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Forecast and Backcast
Where do we want to go? How do we get there?
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WEAP21 Program Structure
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The WEAP21 Graphical User Interface
Languages Interface Only English French Chinese S
panish
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Data Requirements

• WEAP allows the user to determine the level of
  complexity desired
• according to the questions that need to be
  addressed
• the availability of data

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From the simple
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To the complex.
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Data Requirements Supply

• User-prescribed supply (riverflow given as fixed
  time series)
• Time series data of riverflows (headflows) cfs
• River network (connectivity)
• Alternative supply via physical hydrology (let
  the watershed generate riverflow)
• Watershed attributes
• Area, land cover . . .
• Climate
• Precipitation, temperature, windspeed, and
  relative humidity

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Letting Climate Drive Hydrology
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The WEAP 2-Bucket Hydrology Module
Surface Runoff f(Pe,z1,1/LAI)
Sw
Dw
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One 2-Bucket Model per Land Class
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Integrated Hydrology/Water Management Analytical
Framework in WEAP21
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Data Requirements Demand

• Water demand data multi-sectoral
• Municipal and industrial demand
• Aggregated by sector (manufacturing, tourism,
  etc.)
• Disaggregated by population (e.g., use/capita,
  use/socioeconomic group)
• Agricultural demands
• Aggregated by area ( hectares, annual
  water-use/hectare)
• Disaggregated by crop water requirements
• Ecosystem demands (in-stream flow requirements)

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Data Requirements (continued)
SECTOR
SUBSECTOR
END-USE
DEVICE
Furrow Sprinkler Drip Standard Efficient ... K
itchen Bathing Washer Toilet ...
Agriculture Industry Municipal
Irrigation ... Cooling Processing Others Sing
le Family Multi-family ...
Cotton Rice Wheat ... Electric
Power Petroleum Paper ... South City West
City ...
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Example Data Resources

• Indigenous knowledge!
• Climate
• www.apdrc.soest.hawaii.edu
• (Asia Pacific Data Research Center)
• Hydrology
• www.grdc.bafg.de
• (Global Runoff Data Center)
• GIS
• www.asian.gu.edu/au
• (Asian Spatial Information and Analysis
  Network)
• General Resources
• www.weap21.org

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Calibration and Validation

• Model evaluation criteria
• Flows along mainstem and tributaries
• Reservoir storage and release
• Water diversions from other basins
• Agricultural water demand and delivery
• Municipal and industrial water demands and
  deliveries
• Groundwater storage trends and levels

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Modeling Streamflow
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Looking at Results
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What next?

• How can output from WEAP, or any water resource
  model for that matter, be organized and analyzed
  to select adaptation strategies?...
• Stakeholder-driven multi-criteria analysis can
  help

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Multi-criteria Analysis (MCA)

• Any structured approach used to determine overall
  preferences among alternative options, where the
  alternatives can accomplish several objectives
• Is particularly useful to situations where a
  single criterion would fall short, and allows
  decision-makers to address a range of relevant
  factors

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MCA Scope

• All sectors, regions, livelihoods, ecosystems,
  etc.
• Has been used extensively in water resources
  planning, coastal zone management, agricultural
  development, and stakeholder processes

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MCA Key Outputs

• A single preferred option, or
• A short list of preferred options, or
• A characterization of acceptable and unacceptable
  possiblities

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MCA Key Inputs

• Evaluation criteria
• Relevant metrics for those criteria

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MCAWEAP Motivation

• Develop an interactive computer tool to
  facilitate multi-criteria assessment for water
  resource options in a stakeholder context
• Designed specifically to be used in conjunction
  with outputs from the WEAP model and stakeholder
  processes to develop, weight and apply evaluation
  criteria to adaptation options

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MCAWEAP History

• MCA-WEAP is a new Excel macros-based model, built
  off of NAPAssess, a tool developed by SEI for use
  by Sudan and Yemen in their NAPA processes
• Now reshaped to focus exclusively on adaptation
  options around water used so far in Netherlands
  Climate Assistance Program (NCAP) studies
• ensure adequate stakeholder representation
• Identify CC adaptation strategies
• establish country-driven criteria to evaluate and
  prioritize
• Make concensus-based recommendations for
  adaptation initiatives
• Open source, and still a BETA version!

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MCAWEAP Capabilities

• Streamlines the multi-criteria analysis process
  by
• Housing all relevant project information on a
  single platform
• Supporting a transparent, user-friendly process
  for developing, weighting, and applying
  evaluation criteria
• Producing a ranked set of alternatives

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MCAWEAP Steps

• Assess vulnerability priorities
• Identify key stakeholders
• Identify potential adaptation strategies
• Develop stakeholder-driven evaluation criteria to
  determine trade-offs
• Assign weights to criteria
• Prioritize adaptation options for best meeting
  the needs of those most vulnerable

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Licensing WEAP

• Go to www.weap21.org and register for a new
  license (free for government, university, and
  non-profit organizations in developing countries)
• Register WEAP under Help menu and select
  Register WEAP