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Decision Tools to Evaluate Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change Water Resources Sector

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Title: Decision Tools to Evaluate Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change Water Resources Sector


1
Decision Tools to Evaluate Vulnerabilities and
Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change Water
Resources Sector
Sebastián Vicuña University of California,
Berkeley/SEI CGE Hands-on Training Workshop on
VA Assessments for the Latin America and the
Caribbean Region Asunción, Paraguay, 14-18 August
2006
2
Outline
  • Vulnerability and adaptation with respect to
    water resources
  • Hydrologic implications of climate change for
    water resources
  • Tools/models
  • WEAP model presentation
  • Role for Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA)

3
Effective VA Assessments
  • Defining VA assessment
  • Often VA in the water sector focuses on analysis
    over assessment
  • Why? Because the focus is on biophysical impacts,
    e.g., hydrologic response, crop yields, land use,
    etc.
  • Assessment is an integrating process requiring
    the interface of physical and social science and
    public policy

4
Effective VA Assessments (continued)
  • General questions
  • What is the assessment trying to influence?
  • How can the science/policy interface be most
    effective?
  • How can the participants be most effective in the
    process?
  • General problems
  • Participants bring differing objectives/
    expertise
  • These differences often lead to dissention/
    differing opinions this is where MCA can help
    in prioritization

5
Effective VA Assessments (continued)
  • To be valuable, the assessment process requires
  • Relevancy
  • Credibility
  • Legitimacy
  • Consistent participation
  • An interdisciplinary process
  • The assessment process often requires a tool
  • The tool is usually a model or suite of models
  • These models serve as the interface
  • This interface is a bridge for dialogue between
    scientists and policy makers

6
The Water Resource Sector Waters Trade-Off
Landscape
7
Water Resources A Critical VA Sector
  • Must consider both managed and natural systems
  • Human activity influences both systems

Managed Systems
External Pressure
Product, good or service Process Control
services
Example Agriculture
Example Wetlands
8
Outline
  • Vulnerability and adaptation with respect to
    water resources
  • Hydrologic implications of climate change for
    water resources
  • Tools/models
  • WEAP model presentation
  • Role for Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA)

9
Hydrologic External Pressures related to
Climate Change
  • Precipitation amount
  • Global average increase
  • Marked regional differences
  • Temperature increase
  • Change in timing of streamflows
  • Glacier retreat
  • Precipitation frequency and intensity
  • Less frequent, more intense (Trenberth et al.,
    2003)
  • Evaporation and transpiration
  • Increase total evaporation
  • Regional complexities due to plant/atmosphere
    interactions

10
Specific Pressures Annual Runoff
  • Change in annual runoff (A2 scenario)
  • Arnell., 2003

11
Specific Pressures Annual Runoff
Change in annual runoff (A2 scenario)
  • Arnell., 2003

12
Specific Pressures Annual Runoff
Change in annual runoff (A2 scenario)
13
Specific Pressures Runoff timing, analogy to
North American West
Stewart et al., 2004
14
Analogy with Western North America
Temperature
Snow cover
Topography
http//plasma.nationalgeographic.com/mapmachine/in
dex.html
15
Analogy with Western North America
Snow cover
Topography
Temperature
http//plasma.nationalgeographic.com/mapmachine/in
dex.html
16
Specific Pressures Runoff timing, analogy to
North American West
17
Specific Pressures Retreating glaciers
Evolución del glaciar Chacaltaya (Bolivia)
Retroceso del glaciar Broggi Glaciar en 1979 y
1997
Fluctuación del frente de 4 glaciares en Perú
Comunicación Nacional del Perú a la
UNFCCC Francou et al., 2000
18
Specific Pressures Retreating glaciers
  • Meltwaters are depended upon during dry season to
    sustain low flow periods
  • Probable diminished volume and earlier timing of
    flows
  • Has implications for hydropower production,
    agricultural demands, and river and riparian
    quality and ecosystem needs

19
Specific Pressures Extreme weather
  • Climate variability (El Nino/Nina Southern
    Oscillation) impact water availability and all
    economic sectors en several countries in the
    region (e.g. Peru, Ecuador, Central America)
    (IPCC 2001).
  • Some climate models indicate more El Nino-like
    climate with increased greenhouse gases
    concentrations (Meehl and Washington 1996
    Trenberth and Hoar, 1997)

20
Specific Pressures Extreme weather
Change in extremes by the 2050s, under HadCM3
Arnell., 2003
21
Specific Pressures Extreme weather
Change in extremes by the 2050s, under HadCM3
Arnell., 1999
22
Examples of Adaptation in Water Resources
  • Construction/modification of physical
    infrastructure
  • Canal linings
  • Closed conduits instead of open channels
  • Integrating separate reservoirs into a single
    system
  • Reservoirs/hydro-plants/delivery systems
  • Raising dam wall height
  • Increasing canal size
  • Removing sediment from reservoirs for more
    storage
  • Inter-basin water transfers

23
Examples of Adaptation in Water Resources
(continued)
  • Adaptive management of existing water supply
    systems
  • Change operating rules for reservoirs
  • Use conjunctive surface/groundwater supply
  • Physically integrate reservoir operation system
  • Coordinate supply/demand
  • Indigenous options

24
Examples of Adaptation in Water Resources
(continued)
  • Policy, conservation, efficiency, and technology
  • Domestic
  • Municipal and in-home re-use of water
  • Leak repair
  • Rainwater collection for non-potable uses
  • Low-flow appliances
  • Dual-supply systems (potable and nonpotable)
  • Agriculture
  • Irrigation timing and efficiency
  • Drainage re-use, use of wastewater effluent
  • High value/low water use crops
  • Drip, micro-spray, low-energy, precision
    application irrigation systems
  • Salt-tolerant crops that can use drain water

25
Examples of Adaptation Water Supply (continued)
  • Policy, conservation, efficiency, and technology
    (continued)
  • Industry
  • Water re-use and recycling
  • Closed cycle and/or air cooling
  • More efficient hydropower turbines
  • Cooling ponds, wet towers and dry towers
  • Energy (hydropower)
  • Reservoir re-operation
  • Cogeneration (beneficial use of waste heat)
  • Additional reservoirs and hydropower stations
  • Low head run of the river hydropower
  • Market/price-driven transfers to other activities
  • Using water price to shift water use between
    sectors

26
Outline
  • Vulnerability and adaptation with respect to
    water resources
  • Hydrologic implications of climate change for
    water resources
  • Tools/models
  • WEAP model presentation
  • Role for Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA)

27
Tools in Water Resource VA Studies
  • What tools are available to understand both water
    resource vulnerabilities and evaluate possible
    adaptation strategies?
  • How can stakeholders be engaged in these
    processes?

28
Types of Water Resources Models
  • Hydraulic biophysical process models describing
    streamflow, flooding
  • Hydrology rainfall/runoff processes
  • Planning water resource systems models
  • Which model?...
  • What questions are you trying to answer?

29
Hydraulic Model
  • Critical questions
  • How fast, deep is river flowing (flooding
    effects)
  • How do changes to flow and channel morphology
    impact sediment transport and services provided
    (fish habitats, recreation, etc).

30
Hydrology Model
  • Critical questions
  • How does rainfall on a catchment translate into
    flow in a river?
  • What pathways does water follow as it moves
    through a catchment?
  • How does movement along these pathways impact the
    magnitude, timing, duration, and frequency of
    river flows, as well as water quality?

31
Planning Model
  • Critical questions
  • How should water be allocated to various uses in
    time of shortage?
  • How can these operations be constrained to
    protect the services provided by the river?
  • How should infrastructure in the system (e.g.,
    dams, diversion works) be operated to achieve
    maximum benefit (economic, social, ecological)?
  • How will allocation, operations, and operating
    constraints change if new management strategies
    are introduced into the system?

32
Tools to Use for the Assessment Referenced Water
Models
  • Operational and hydraulic
  • HEC
  • HEC-HMS event-based rainfall-runoff (provides
    input to HEC-RAS for doing 1-d flood inundation
    mapping)
  • HEC-RAS one-dimensional steady and unsteady
    flow
  • HEC-ResSim reservoir operation modeling
  • WaterWare
  • RiverWare
  • MIKE11
  • Delft3d

33
Hydraulic Water Management Model
  • HEC-HMS watershed scale, event based hydrologic
    simulation, of rainfall-runoff processes
  • Sub-daily rainfall-runoff processes of small
    catchments
  • Free, download from web

34
Tools to Use for the Assessment Referenced Water
Models (continued)
  • Planning/ hydrology
  • WEAP21
  • Aquarius
  • SWAT
  • IRAS (Interactive River and Aquifer Simulation)
  • RIBASIM
  • MIKE 21 and BASIN

35
Current Focus Planning and Hydrologic
Implications of Climate Change
  • Selected planning/hydrology models can be
    deployed on PC, extensive documentation, ease of
    use, free (or free to developing nations)
  • Aquarius
  • SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool)
  • WEAP21 (Water Evaluation and Planning)

36
Physical Hydrology and Water Management Models
  • AQUARIUS advantage Has economic efficiency
    criterion requiring the reallocation of stream
    flows until the net marginal return in all water
    uses is equal
  • Cannot be climatically driven flows prescribed
    by user
  • Economic focus

37
Physical Hydrology and Water Management Models
(continued)
  • SWAT advantage
  • Can predict effect of management decisions on
    water, sediment, nutrient and pesticide yields on
    ungauged river basins. Considers complex water
    quality constituents.
  • Rainfall-runoff, river routing on a daily
    timestep
  • Focuses on supply side of water balance

38
Physical Hydrology and Water Management Models
(continued)
  • WEAP21 advantage Seamlessly integrates watershed
    hydrologic processes with water resources
    management
  • Can be climatically driven
  • Based on holistic approach of integrated water
    resources management (IWRM) supply and demand

39
Outline
  • Vulnerability and adaptation with respect to
    water resources
  • Hydrologic implications of climate change for
    water resources
  • Tools/models
  • WEAP model presentation
  • Role for Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA)

40
Overview WEAP21
  • Hydrology and planning
  • Planning (water distribution) examples and
    exercises
  • Adding hydrology to the model
  • User interface
  • Scale
  • Data requirements and resources
  • Calibration and validation
  • Results
  • Scenarios
  • Licensing and registration

41
WEAP and Planning
  • Provides a common framework for transparently
    organizing water resource data at any scale
    desired local watershed, regional or
    transboundary river basin
  • Scenarios can be easily developed to explore
    possible water futures
  • Implications of various policies can be evaluated

42
Uses of WEAP
  • Policy Research
  • Alternative Allocations
  • Climate Change
  • Land Use Change
  • Infrastructure Planning
  • Capacity Building
  • Negotiation
  • Stakeholder Engagement

43
WEAP Capabilities
  • Can do
  • High level planning at local and regional scales
  • Demand management
  • Water allocation
  • Infrastructure evaluation
  • Cannot do
  • Sub-daily operations
  • Optimization of supply and demand (e.g. cost
    minimizations or social welfare maximization)

44
A Simple System with WEAP21
45
An Infrastructure Constraint
46
A Regulatory Constraint
47
Different Priorities
  • For example, the demands of large farmers (70
    units) might be Priority 1 in one scenario
    whereas the demands of smallholders (40 units)
    may be Priority 1 in another

48
Different Preferences
30
10
  • For example, a center pivot operator may prefer
    to take water from a tributary because of lower
    pumping costs

0
90
49
WEAP is Scenario-driven
  • The scenario editor readily accommodates analysis
    of
  • Climate change scenarios and assumptions
  • Future demand assumptions
  • Future watershed development assumptions

50
Futures and Scenarios Why?
  • Scenarios a systematic way of thinking about the
    future
  • To gain a better understanding of the possible
    implications of decisions (or non-decisions
    across scales and time
  • To support decision-making

51
Driving Forces
  • Technological
  • Computer and information technology
  • Biotechnology
  • Miniaturization
  • Environmental/Climatic
  • Increasing global stress
  • Local degradation
  • Some remediation in richer countries
  • Governance
  • Global institutions
  • Democratic government
  • Role for civil society in decision-making
  • Demographic
  • More people
  • Urbanization
  • Older
  • Economic
  • Growing integration of global economy
  • Social
  • Increasing inequality
  • Persistent poverty
  • Cultural
  • Spread of values of consumerism and individualism
  • Nationalist and religious reaction

52
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53
WEAP21 Program Structure
54
The WEAP21 Graphical User Interface
Languages Interface Only English French Chinese S
panish
55
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56
Data Requirements
  • WEAP allows the user to determine the level of
    complexity desired
  • according to the questions that need to be
    addressed
  • the availability of data

57
From the simple
58
To the complex.
59
Data Requirements Supply
  • User-prescribed supply (riverflow given as fixed
    time series)
  • Time series data of riverflows (headflows) cfs
  • River network (connectivity)
  • Alternative supply via physical hydrology (let
    the watershed generate riverflow)
  • Watershed attributes
  • Area, land cover . . .
  • Climate
  • Precipitation, temperature, windspeed, and
    relative humidity

60
User-defined Streamflows and Demands
61
Letting Climate Drive Hydrology
62
The WEAP 2-Bucket Hydrology Module
Surface Runoff f(Pe,z1,1/LAI)
Sw
Dw
63
One 2-Bucket Model per Land Class
64
Integrated Hydrology/Water Management Analytical
Framework in WEAP21
65
Data Requirements Demand
  • Water demand data multi-sectoral
  • Municipal and industrial demand
  • Aggregated by sector (manufacturing, tourism,
    etc.)
  • Disaggregated by population (e.g., use/capita,
    use/socioeconomic group)
  • Agricultural demands
  • Aggregated by area ( hectares, annual
    water-use/hectare)
  • Disaggregated by crop water requirements
  • Ecosystem demands (in-stream flow requirements)

66
Data Requirements (continued)
SECTOR
SUBSECTOR
END-USE
DEVICE
Furrow Sprinkler Drip Standard Efficient ... K
itchen Bathing Washer Toilet ...
Agriculture Industry Municipal
Irrigation ... Cooling Processing Others Sing
le Family Multi-family ...
Cotton Rice Wheat ... Electric
Power Petroleum Paper ... South City West
City ...
67
Calibration and Validation
  • Model evaluation criteria
  • Flows along mainstem and tributaries
  • Reservoir storage and release
  • Water diversions from other basins
  • Agricultural water demand and delivery
  • Municipal and industrial water demands and
    deliveries
  • Groundwater storage trends and levels

68
Modeling Streamflow
69
Looking at Results
70
Outline
  • Vulnerability and adaptation with respect to
    water resources
  • Hydrologic implications of climate change for
    water resources
  • Tools/models
  • WEAP model presentation
  • Role for Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA)

71
What next?
  • How can output from WEAP, or any water resource
    model for that matter, be organized and analyzed
    to prioritize and select appropriate adaptation
    strategies?...
  • Stakeholder-driven multi-criteria analysis can
    help

72
Multi-criteria Analysis (MCA)
  • Any structured approach used to determine overall
    preferences among alternative options, where the
    alternatives can accomplish several objectives
  • Is particularly useful to situations where a
    single criterion would fall short, and allows
    decision-makers to address a range of relevant
    factors

73
MCA Scope
  • All sectors, regions, livelihoods, ecosystems,
    etc.
  • Has been used extensively in water resources
    planning, coastal zone management, agricultural
    development, and stakeholder processes

74
MCA Key Outputs
  • A single preferred option, or
  • A short list of preferred options, or
  • A characterization of acceptable and unacceptable
    possibilities

75
MCA Key Inputs
  • Evaluation criteria
  • Relevant metrics for those criteria

76
MCAWEAP Motivation
  • Develop an interactive computer tool to
    facilitate multi-criteria assessment of water
    resource options in a stakeholder context
  • Designed specifically to be used in conjunction
    with outputs from the WEAP model and stakeholder
    processes to develop, weight and apply evaluation
    criteria to adaptation options

77
MCAWEAP History
  • MCA-WEAP is a new Excel macros-based model, built
    off of NAPAssess, a tool developed by SEI for use
    by Sudan and Yemen in their NAPA processes
  • Now reshaped to focus exclusively on adaptation
    options around water used so far in Netherlands
    Climate Assistance Program (NCAP) studies
  • ensure adequate stakeholder representation
  • Identify CC adaptation strategies
  • establish country-driven criteria to evaluate and
    prioritize
  • Make consensus-based recommendations for
    adaptation initiatives
  • Open source, and still a BETA version!

78
MCAWEAP Capabilities
  • Streamlines the multi-criteria analysis process
    by
  • Housing all relevant project information on a
    single platform
  • Supporting a transparent, user-friendly process
    for developing, weighting, and applying
    evaluation criteria
  • Producing a ranked set of alternatives

79
MCAWEAP Steps
  • Assess key vulnerability
  • Identify key stakeholders
  • Identify potential adaptation strategies
  • Develop stakeholder-driven evaluation criteria to
    determine trade-offs
  • Assign weights to criteria
  • Prioritize adaptation options for best meeting
    the needs of those most vulnerable

80
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81
Licensing WEAP
  • Go to www.weap21.org and register for a new
    license (free for government, university, and
    non-profit organizations in developing countries)
  • Workshop assistants can have access to a
    temporary license with the following data
  • User Name UNFCCC VA Workshop
  • Registration Code 1031200644763
  • License Expires 10/31/2006
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