Decision Tools to Evaluate Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change - The Water Resource Sector - UNFCC Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations Maputo 18 April 2005 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Loading...

PPT – Decision Tools to Evaluate Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change - The Water Resource Sector - UNFCC Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations Maputo 18 April 2005 PowerPoint presentation | free to download - id: 53cd28-NDQyZ



Loading


The Adobe Flash plugin is needed to view this content

Get the plugin now

View by Category
About This Presentation
Title:

Decision Tools to Evaluate Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change - The Water Resource Sector - UNFCC Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations Maputo 18 April 2005

Description:

Title: Decision Tools to Evaluate Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change The water resource sector Author: Alyssa McCluskey – PowerPoint PPT presentation

Number of Views:515
Avg rating:3.0/5.0
Slides: 62
Provided by: Alyss57
Learn more at: http://unfccc.int
Category:

less

Write a Comment
User Comments (0)
Transcript and Presenter's Notes

Title: Decision Tools to Evaluate Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change - The Water Resource Sector - UNFCC Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations Maputo 18 April 2005


1
Decision Tools to Evaluate Vulnerabilities and
Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change - The
Water Resource Sector -UNFCC Climate Change
Impacts and Adaptations Maputo18 April 2005
  • Alyssa McCluskey, University of Colorado
  • and David Yates, National Center for Atmospheric
    Research

2
Outline
  1. Vulnerability and Adaptation with respect to
    water resources
  2. Hydrologic implications of climate change for
    water resources
  3. Topics covered in a water resources assessment
  4. Viewing water resources from a services
    perspective
  5. Tools/Models
  6. WEAP Model Presentation

3
Effective Vulnerability and Adaptation
Assessments
  • Defining Vulnerability and Adaptation (VA)
    Assessment
  • Often VA is Analysis not Assessment
  • Why?? Because the focus is on biophysical impacts
  • e.g. hydrologic response, crop yields, forests,
    etc.
  • However, Assessment is an integrating process
  • Requiring the Interface of physical and social
    science and Public Policy

4
Effective Vulnerability and Adaptation
Assessments
  • General Questions
  • What is the assessment trying to influence?
  • How can the science/policy interface be most
    effective?
  • How can the participants be most effective in the
    process?
  • General Problems
  • Participants bring differing objectives/expertise
  • These differences often lead to
    dissention/differing opinions
  • The assessment process requires
  • 1. Value
  • 2. Credibility
  • 3. Legitimacy
  • 4. Consistent Participation

5
Effective Vulnerability and Adaptation
Assessments
  • VA Assessments - An Interdisciplinary process
  • The Assessment process often requires a tool
  • The tool is usually a model or suite of models
  • These models serve as the interface
  • This interface is a bridge for dialogue between
    scientists and policy makers

6
Water Resources A Critical VA Sector
  • Often Critical to both Managed and Natural
    Systems
  • Human Activity Influences Both Systems

Managed Systems
External Pressure
Product, good or service Process Control
Example Agriculture
Example Wetlands
7
Examples of Adaptation Water Supply
  • Construction/Modification of physical
    infrastructure
  • Canal linings
  • Closed conduits instead of open channels
  • Integrating separate reservoirs into a single
    system
  • Reservoirs/Hydroplants/Delivery systems
  • Raising dam wall height
  • Increasing canal size
  • Removing sediment from reservoirs for more
    storage
  • Inter-basin water transfers
  • Adaptive management of existing water supply
    systems
  • Change operating rules
  • Use conjunctive surface/groundwater supply
  • Physically integrate reservoir operation system
  • Co-ordinate supply/demand

8
Examples of Adaptation Water Demand
  • Policy, Conservation, Efficiency, and Technology
  • Domestic
  • Municipal and in-home re-use
  • Leak repair
  • Rainwater collection for non-potable uses
  • low flow appliances
  • Dual supply systems (potable and non-potable)
  • Agricultural
  • Irrigation timing and efficiency
  • Lining of canals, Closed Conduits
  • Drainage re-use, Use of wastewater effluent
  • High value/low water use crops
  • Drip, micro-spray, low-energy, precision
    application irrigation systems
  • Salt tolerant crops that can use drain water

9
Examples of Adaptation Water Demand (continued)
  • Policy, Conservation, Efficiency, and Technology
  • Industrial
  • Water Re-use and Recycling
  • Closed cycle and/or air cooling
  • More efficient hydropower turbines
  • Cooling ponds, wet tower and dry towers
  • Energy (hydro-power)
  • Reservoir re-operation
  • Co-generation (beneficial use of waste heat)
  • Additional reservoirs and hydropower stations
  • Low head run of the river hydropower
  • Market/price-driven transfers to other activities
  • Using water price to shift water use between
    sectors

10
Tools in Water Resource VA Studies
  • Hydrologic Models (physical processes)
  • Simulate river basin hydrologic processes
  • Examples - Water Balance, Rainfall-Runoff, lake
    simulation, stream water quality models
  • Water Resource Models (physical and management)
  • Simulate current and future supply/demand of
    system
  • Operating rules and policies
  • Environmental impacts
  • Hydroelectric production
  • Decision Support Systems (DSS) for policy
    interaction

11
Hydrologic Implications of CC for Water
Resources
  • Precipitation amount
  • Global average increase
  • Marked regional differences
  • Precipitation frequency and intensity
  • Less frequent, more intense (Trenberth et al.,
    2002)
  • Evaporation and transpiration
  • Increase total evaporation
  • Regional complexities due to plant/atmosphere
    interactions

12
Hydrologic Implications of CC for Water
Resources (continued)
  • Changes in runoff
  • Despite global precipitation increases, areas of
    substantial runoff decreases
  • Coastal zones
  • Saltwater intrusion into coastal aquifers
  • Severe storm-surge flooding
  • Water quality
  • Lower flows, could lead to higher contaminant
    concentrations
  • Higher flows could lead to greater leaching and
    sediment transport

13
(No Transcript)
14
Africa Focus ECHAM4/OPYC
15
Africa Focus GFDLR30
16
What Problems are We Trying to Address??
  • Water Planning (daily, weekly, monthly, annual)
  • Local and regional
  • Municipal and industrial
  • Ecosystems
  • Reservoir storage
  • Competing demand
  • Operation of infrastructure and hydraulics
    (daily and sub-daily)
  • Dam and reservoir operation
  • Canal control
  • Hydropower optimization
  • Flood and floodplain inundation

17
Water Resource PlanningWaters Trade-Off
Landscape
18
Water Resources from a Services Perspective
  • Not just an evaluation of rainfall-runoff or
    streamflow
  • But an evaluation of the potential impacts of
    global warming on the goods and services provide
    by freshwater systems

19
Freshwater Ecosystem Services
Extractable Direct Use Indirect Use
20
Tools to use for the Assessment Referenced Water
Models
  • Planning
  • WEAP21 (also hydrology)
  • Aquarius
  • SWAT
  • IRAS (Interactive River and Aquifer Simulation)
  • RIBASIM
  • MIKE BASIN

21
Referenced Water Models (continued)
  • Operational and hydraulic
  • HEC
  • HEC-HMS event-based rainfall-runoff (provides
    input to HEC-RAS for doing 1-d flood inundation
    mapping)
  • HEC-RAS one-dimensional steady and unsteady
    flow
  • HEC-ResSim reservoir operation modeling
  • WaterWare
  • RiverWare

22
Current Focus Planning and Hydrologic
Implications of CC
  • Select models of interest and available at
    workshop
  • Why??? Free deployed on PC extensive
    documentation ease-of-use
  • WEAP21
  • SWAT
  • HEC suite
  • Aquarius

23
Physical Hydrology and Water Management Models
  • AQUARIS advantage Economic efficiency criterion
    requiring the reallocation of stream flows until
    the net marginal return in all water uses is
    equal
  • Cannot be climatically driven

24
Physical Hydrology and Water Management Models
(continued)
  • SWAT management decisions on water, sediment,
    nutrient and pesticide yields with reasonable
    accuracy on ungaged river basins. Complex water
    quality constituents.
  • Rainfall-runoff, river routing on a daily
    timestep

25
Physical Hydrology and Water Management Models
(continued)
  • WEAP21 advantage Seamlessly integrating
    watershed hydrologic processes with water
    resources management
  • Can be climatically driven

26
Physical Hydraulic Water Management Model
  • HEC-HMS watershed scale, event based hydrologic
    simulation, of rainfall-runoff processes
  • Sub-daily rainfall-runoff processes of small
    catchments

27
Overview WEAP21
  1. Hydrology and Planning
  2. Planning (water distribution) examples and
    exercises
  3. Adding hydrology to the model
  4. User interface
  5. Scale
  6. Data Requirements and Resources
  7. Calibration and Validation
  8. Results
  9. Scenarios
  10. Licensing and Registration

28
Hydrology Model
  • Critical questions
  • How does rainfall on a catchment translate into
    flow in a river?
  • What pathways does water follow as it moves
    through a catchment?
  • How does movement along these pathways impact the
    magnitude, timing, duration, and frequency of
    river flows?

29
Planning Model
  • Critical questions
  • How should water be allocated to various uses in
    time of shortage?
  • How can these operations be constrained to
    protect the services provided by the river?
  • How should infrastructure in the system (e.g.,
    dams, diversion works) be operated to achieve
    maximum benefit?
  • How will allocation, operations, and operating
    constraints change if new management strategies
    are introduced into the system?

30
A Simple System with WEAP21
31
An Infrastructure Constraint
32
A Regulatory Constraint
33
Different Priorities
  • For example, the demands of large farmers (70
    units) might be Priority 1 in one scenario while
    the demands of smallholders (40 units) may be
    Priority 1 in another

34
Different Preferences
30
10
  • For example, a center pivot operator may prefer
    to take water from a tributary because of lower
    pumping costs

0
90
35
Example
  • How much water will the site with 70 units of
    demand receive?

36
Example (continued)
  • How much water will be flowing in the reach
    between the Priority 2 diversion and the Priority
    1 return flow?

37
Example (continued)
  • What could we do to ensure that this reach does
    not go dry?

38
What Are We Assuming?
  1. That we know how much water is flowing at the top
    of each river
  2. That no water is naturally flowing into or out of
    the river as it moves downstream
  3. That we know what the water demands are with
    certainty
  4. Basically, that this system has been removed from
    its HYDROLOGIC context

39
What Do We Do Now?
40
Add Hydrology
41
And this is the Climate Interface
42
Integrated Hydrology/Water Management Analytical
Framework in WEAP21
43
The WEAP 2-Bucket Hydrology Module
Surface Runoff f(Pe,z1,1/LAI)
Sw
Dw
44
One 2-Bucket Model per Land Class
45
Some Comments
  • The number of parameters in the model are fairly
    limited and are at least related to the
    biophysical characteristics of the catchment
  • The irrigation routine includes an implicit
    notion of field level irrigation efficiency
  • Seepage can only pass from the lower bucket to
    the river, not the other way

46
This Last Point Leads to a Stylized Groundwater
Representation
47
Some Comments
  • The geometry of the aquifers in question are
    representative, not absolute
  • The stream stage is assumed to be invariant in
    this module
  • While the water table can fluctuate, it ignores
    all local fluctuations

48
The WEAP21 Graphical User Interface
Languages Interface Only English French Chinese S
panish
49
(No Transcript)
50
WEAPs Temporal and Spatial Scale
  • Time step Daily, weekly, monthly, etc.
  • No routing, as all demands satisfied within the
    current time step
  • Time step at least as long as the residence time
    of period of lowest flow
  • Larger watersheds require longer times steps
    (e.g., one month)
  • Smaller watersheds can apply shorter time steps
    (e.g., 1-day, 5-day, 10-day)

51
Some Ideas onCatchment Size
  • Small lt100km2
  • Medium 100 to 1000km2
  • Large 1000 to 10,000km2
  • Very Large 10,000 to 100,000km2

52
Data Requirements
  • Prescribed supply (riverflow given as fixed time
    series)
  • Time series data of riverflows (headflows) cfs
  • River network (connectivity)
  • Alternative supply via physical hydrology
    (watersheds generate riverflow)
  • Watershed attributes
  • Area, land cover . . .
  • Climate
  • Precipitation, temperature, windspeed, and
    relative humidity

53
Data Requirements (continued)
  • Water demand data
  • Municipal and industrial demand
  • Aggregated by sector (manufacturing, tourism,
    etc.)
  • Disaggregated by population (e.g., use/capita,
    use/socio-econ group)
  • Agricultural demands
  • Aggregated by area ( hectares, annual
    water-use/hectare)
  • Disaggregated by crop water requirements
  • Ecosystem demands (in-stream flow requirements)

54
Example Data Resources
  • Climate
  • http//www.mara.org.za/climatecd/info.htm
  • Hydrology
  • http//www.dwaf.gov.za/hydrology/
  • GIS
  • http//www.sahims.net/gis/
  • General
  • http//www.weap21.org (resources)

55
Calibration and Validation
  • Model evaluation criteria
  • Flows along mainstem and tributaries
  • Reservoir storage and release
  • Water diversions from other basins
  • Agricultural water demand and delivery
  • Municipal and industrial water demands and
    deliveries
  • Groundwater storage trends and levels

56
Modeling Streamflow
57
Reservoir Storage
58
Looking at Results
59
WEAP21 Developing Climate Change and Other
Scenarios
  • The scenario editor readily accommodates scenario
    analysis
  • Climate change scenarios and assumptions
  • Future demand assumptions
  • Future watershed development assumptions
  • Etc.

60
Licensing WEAP
  • User Name UNFCCC, Mozambique WEAP
    WorkshopRegistration Code 1031200517844License
    Expires 10/31/2005  (after which saving data
    will be disabled)
  • After 6 months you will need to go to
    www.weap21.org and register for a new license
    (free for government, university, and non-profit
    organizations in developing countries)
  • Register WEAP under Help menu and select
    Register WEAP

61
WEAP Hands-On Training
  • Two sets of exercises
  • General WEAP without hydrology
  • WEAP with hydrology/climate (LATEST AND GREATEST)
  • We will be training on the latest version with
    hydrology and climate.
  • Follow along or enter the data along with me!
About PowerShow.com