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Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment Hands-on Training Workshop for the Asia and Pacific Region Jakarta, Indonesia, 20 March, 2006

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Integration of V&A Analysis by Arthur W. Rolle Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment Hands-on Training Workshop for the Asia and Pacific Region – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment Hands-on Training Workshop for the Asia and Pacific Region Jakarta, Indonesia, 20 March, 2006


1
Vulnerability
and Adaptation Assessment Hands-on Training
Workshop for the Asia and Pacific RegionJakarta,
Indonesia, 20 March, 2006
Integration of VA Analysis by Arthur W. Rolle
2
Outline
  • General points
  • Integration of results
  • Cross sector and multi-sector integration
  • Setting priorities
  • Vulnerability
  • Adaptation
  • Examples of Adaptation Integration
  • Benefit-cost Analysis
  • Conclusions

3
National Communications
  • Under Articles 4.1 and 12.1 Parties should
    develop and publish their national
    communications.
  • Under the new guidelines (decision 17/CP.8),
    Parties should communicate to the COP a general
    description of programs containing measures to
    facilitate adequate adaptation, etc.

4
Reporting Requirements
  • The following categories of impacts/vulnerability
    are expected to be reported agriculture,
    tourism, health, forests, water resources,
    infrastructure, rangeland, coastal regions,
    ecosystems and biodiversity, wildlife, fisheries
    and the economy.

5
Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation
  • Vulnerability is a function of the character,
    magnitude and rate of climate change and
    variation, to which a system is exposed, its
    sensitivity and its adaptive capacity Summary
    for Policy Makers (IPCC WG II)
  • Adaptive capacity is the ability of a system to
    adjust to climate change (including climate
    variability and extremes) to moderate potential
    damages, to take advantage of opportunities or to
    cope with the consequences Summary for Policy
    Makers (IPCC WG II

6
After vulnerability and adaptation analyses-
Whats next?
  • The interest should now be on incorporating
    initiatives, measures, strategies to reduce
    vulnerability to climate change into other,
    existing policies, programs, resource management
    structures, disaster preparedness program,
    livelihood enhancement activities, and other
    sustainable development initiatives.

7
WHY?
  • It is unrealistic to expect special policy
    initiatives to deal with climate change
    adaptation by itself, especially when so many of
    the suggested adaptations (drought planning,
    coastal infrastructure planning, flood
    preparedness, early warning, livelihood
    enhancement, etc) were being addressed in other
    policies or programs.

8
Why is Integration Important?
  • Impacts do not happen in isolation
  • Impacts in one sector can adversely or positively
    affect another
  • Some sectors are affected directly and indirectly
  • Others just indirectly
  • Sometimes a change in one sector can offset the
    affect of climate change in another sector
  • In addition, integration is necessary for ranking
    vulnerabilities and adaptations

9
Main Types of Integration of Results
  • Cross-sector integration
  • Link related sectors
  • Multisector
  • Economy or system wide
  • Integrated assessment models
  • Economic models

10
Some Integrated Assessment Models
  • IMAGE
  • ICLIPS
  • CLIMPACTS
  • MIASMA

11
Impacts in One Sector Can Overwhelm Direct
Climate Effect
  • In a recent study, crop yields in California were
    generally estimated to increase with climate
    change
  • In one scenario, a 25 reduction in water supply
    results in a net loss of 1 billion/year to
    California agriculture

12
Integrating WEAP and CROPWAT
SCENARIOS Population, Development, Technology
WATBAL Streamflow PET
SCENARIOS GCM
CE Integrating WEAP and CROPWAT RES Crop
water demand
WEAP Evaluation Planning
CLIMATE Precip., Temp., Solar Rad.
CROPWAT Regional irrigation
13
Key Indicators for Egyptian Baseline
(1990 absolute 2060-optimistic/pessimistic
percentage change from 1990)
14
Multi-sector Integration Modeling
15
IMAGE Model
16
Regional/National Economic Models
  • Quantitative way to examine climate change market
    impacts throughout an economy
  • Problem with non-market impacts
  • Often macroeconomic models or general equilibrium
    models
  • Require much data
  • Can be expensive
  • Can be complex
  • Communication of assumptions can be a challenge

17
An Example of a Regional Model
18
A More Simple Approach
  • Add up results sector by sector
  • Limited by what is known within sectors
  • Problem of how to integrate across multiple end
    points
  • Impacts may be measured with different metrics
  • Need to account for many sectors
  • Does not capture sectoral interactions

19
Estimates of Damages for India
Sector Damages ( billions)
Agriculture -53.2
Forestry 0.1
Energy -21.9
Water -1.2
Coastal Resources -1.2
20
Can Also Measure Number of People Affected
  • Millions at Risk study did this
  • Global burden of disease

21
Millions at Risk Study
22
At a Minimum
  • Should at least qualitatively identify linkages
    and possible direction of impacts
  • If crops can be examined, not water supply, then
    identify how change in water supply could affect
    agricultural production

23
Integration through Setting Priorities
  • Vulnerability
  • Adaptation

24
Prioritization of Vulnerabilities
  • It can be quite useful for
  • Focusing adaptation measures
  • Monitoring
  • Adaptation

25
Examples of Adaptation Integration
  • Caribbean (CPACC, GEF/WORLD BANK, CIDA)
  • Integration of adaptation into national policies
    dealing with risk management and into their
    Environment Impact Assessment procedures.
  • Mozambique (World Bank)
  • Integrating Adaptation to climate change risks
    into Action Plan for Poverty Reduction
  • Bangladesh (CARE-CIDA)
  • Climate change adaptation is mainstreamed into
    sustainable development planning

26
Example of Adaptation Integration
  • China (ADB, World Bank)
  • helping poor farmers adapt to drought conditions-
    government undertook integrated ecosystems
    management-house-level eco-farming integrated
    renewable energy such as solar power, vineyard
    cultivation and legume planting for fixing sand
    and providing forage.

27
Process is as Important as Outcome
  • This is an expression of values, not a purely
    analytic exercise
  • Need to include stakeholders and policy makers
  • The following are tools that can be useful in
    setting priorities
  • Whether you use qualitative or quantitative
    approach, the most important thing is JUST DO IT

28
NAPA Process
29
Adaptation Policy Framework
Table 4 Ranking of priority systems/regions/clima
te hazards
30
OECD Method
31
Ranking Adaptations
  • Screening
  • Multicriteria assessment
  • Benefit-cost analysis

32
Screening Matrix for Human Settlement and Tourism
Adaptation Measure in Antigua
33
Multicriteria Assessment
Options Effectiveness Feasibility Cost Score
A 3 2 2 7
B 2 4 4 10
C 5 1 3 9
34
Adaptation Decision Matrix for Agriculture in
Kazakhstan
35
Ranking Based on Scenario
36
Benefit-Cost Analysis
  • Estimate all benefits and costs in a common
    metric to determine whether benefits gt costs
  • Monetary values often used
  • Difficulty what to do about non-market benefits
    or uncertainties
  • Difficulty requires much data and analysis

37
BCA Example Sea Walls in Kiribati
38
What to Use
39
Conclusions
  • Integration is important to at least identify
    related impacts
  • Analysis is desirable because there can be
    surprises
  • Integration can also be useful for examining
    total vulnerability and ranking vulnerabilities

40
Conclusions
  • There should be involvement of local
    stakeholders, the private sector, individuals,
    the research community and different levels of
    government.
  • Awareness raising and capacity building also
    essential.
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