ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACTS OF AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE COCONUT AND TEA SECTORS IN SRI LANKA

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ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACTS OF AND ADAPTATION TO
CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE COCONUT AND TEA SECTORS IN
SRI LANKA   presented by Dr Janaka
Ratnasiri Chairman, National Committee of
IGBP Principal Investigator, AIACC Project, AS 12

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Participating Organizations

• Coconut Research Institute
• Tea Research Institute
• Meteorology Department
• Natural Resources Management Services
• Managed by
• Sri Lanka Association for the Advancement of
  Science

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Tea Plantations in Sri Lanka
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Global Tea Production 2001
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COCONUT PLANTATIONS
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Global Coconut Production 2001
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OBJECTIVES
Collect baseline data on the following - climate
in tea and coconut growing areas over several
past decades - productivity of tea and coconut
over several past decades separately for
different agro-climatic zones - socio economic
information both from documented sources and
primary sources.
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OBJECTIVES Contd.

• Project the climate change scenarios in the
  coconut and tea growing areas based on the global
  circulation model results down-scaled to Sri
  Lanka. 
• Assess the impacts of climate change on
  productivity of tea and coconut and socio
  economic status of the people within the
  plantation sector.
• Identify adaptation options and assess their
  feasibility of implementation

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OBJECTIVES contd.

• Build capacity of natural and social scientists
  engaged in plantation research for undertaking
  assessment studies incorporating impacts,
  vulnerability and adaptation.
•  
• Train scientists to prepare proposals for seeking
  funds in meeting costs of adaptation to adverse
  effects of climate change as provided in Article
  4 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate
  Change (UNFCCC, 1992).
•  

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WORK PLAN OF STUDY

• The first stage will cover collection of baseline
  data of climatic parameters and production data
  on coconut and tea, their analysis and
  constructing future scenarios for temperature and
  precipitation changes, and future variations in
  productivity, economy, unemployment and national
  revenue

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WORK PLAN Contd.

• The second stage will cover assessment of
  impacts, identification and assessment of
  adaptation measures using crop growth models.
  These models need initial calibration to suit
  local conditions and validated for current
  climate conditions. Thereafter these have to be
  tested with the climate change scenarios
  developed.

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Workplan contd.

• In the third stage, the impacts on the markets
  and trade due to changes in the productivity and
  the resulting effects on the planters, the labour
  force and the economy in general will be assessed.

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WORKPLAN Contd.

• In the fourth stage, adaptation strategies will
  be evaluated that will mitigate the adverse
  impacts and those which are most cost effective
  will be disseminated among planters. The project
  will also include training of scientists for
  undertaking adaptive measures and further
  research on assessments

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Year 1 Work Plan a)    Collect and analyze
climatic datab)   Collect and analyze production
and socio-economic datac)   Correlate production
data with climate parametersd)   Establish
climate change scenarios applicable to Sri
Lankae)  Provide Special Training Workshop on
Integrated Assessment Modelling
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1. Project changes in production under no
climate change and climate change scenarios
2.  Calibrate and validate crop model
selected3.  Apply the model for climate
scenarios developed4.  Determine new
cropping calendar for coconut 5.  Provide
training by a visiting scientist. 6. 
Provide training opportunity to a few scientists
at IRICP
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1. Assess impacts on production and
socio-economic factors.2.   Identify
adaptation strategies and evaluate their cost
effectiveness.3.   Training of scientists to
undertake future research on climate change
reports. 4.   Attend meetings where the
findings of the assessments were
discussed.5.   Formulate a set of
recommendations for the use of policy makers and
stake-holders. 6.   Prepare the
final project report for submission to START.
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Stake Holder Activity

• Members of Planters Associations, Exporters,
  Trade and Officials from the Ministry of
  Plantations were invited for the Inception
  Seminar held in April 2002
• A presentation was made at a meeting held in
• May 2002 for the Planters to discuss future
  developments in the industry
• All stake holders were invited for the
  inauguration of the IAM workshop held in
  December, 2002
• In general, the response has been rather poor,
• except in the second

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Linking to National Communication

• Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources is
  responsible for the 2nd NC preparation
• Ministry has launched a programme under GEF
  Enabling Activities Phase II, to support short
  term studies on impacts and vulnerability
  assessment
• PI of the current project is a member of the
  Steering Committee of this programme.
• Ministry has endorsed the current project as
  contributing to its effort to collect information
  for the preparation of the 2nd NC of Sri Lanka

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THANK YOU