Title: ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACTS OF AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE COCONUT AND TEA SECTORS IN SRI LANKA
1ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACTS OF AND ADAPTATION TO
CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE COCONUT AND TEA SECTORS IN
SRI LANKA presented by Dr Janaka
Ratnasiri Chairman, National Committee of
IGBP Principal Investigator, AIACC Project, AS 12
2Participating Organizations
- Coconut Research Institute
- Tea Research Institute
- Meteorology Department
- Natural Resources Management Services
- Managed by
- Sri Lanka Association for the Advancement of
Science
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6Tea Plantations in Sri Lanka
7Global Tea Production 2001
8COCONUT PLANTATIONS
9Global Coconut Production 2001
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11OBJECTIVES
Collect baseline data on the following - climate
in tea and coconut growing areas over several
past decades - productivity of tea and coconut
over several past decades separately for
different agro-climatic zones - socio economic
information both from documented sources and
primary sources.
12OBJECTIVES Contd.
- Project the climate change scenarios in the
coconut and tea growing areas based on the global
circulation model results down-scaled to Sri
Lanka. - Assess the impacts of climate change on
productivity of tea and coconut and socio
economic status of the people within the
plantation sector. - Identify adaptation options and assess their
feasibility of implementation
13OBJECTIVES contd.
- Build capacity of natural and social scientists
engaged in plantation research for undertaking
assessment studies incorporating impacts,
vulnerability and adaptation. -
- Train scientists to prepare proposals for seeking
funds in meeting costs of adaptation to adverse
effects of climate change as provided in Article
4 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC, 1992). -
14WORK PLAN OF STUDY
- The first stage will cover collection of baseline
data of climatic parameters and production data
on coconut and tea, their analysis and
constructing future scenarios for temperature and
precipitation changes, and future variations in
productivity, economy, unemployment and national
revenue
15WORK PLAN Contd.
- The second stage will cover assessment of
impacts, identification and assessment of
adaptation measures using crop growth models.
These models need initial calibration to suit
local conditions and validated for current
climate conditions. Thereafter these have to be
tested with the climate change scenarios
developed.
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17Workplan contd.
- In the third stage, the impacts on the markets
and trade due to changes in the productivity and
the resulting effects on the planters, the labour
force and the economy in general will be assessed.
18WORKPLAN Contd.
- In the fourth stage, adaptation strategies will
be evaluated that will mitigate the adverse
impacts and those which are most cost effective
will be disseminated among planters. The project
will also include training of scientists for
undertaking adaptive measures and further
research on assessments
19Year 1 Work Plan a) Collect and analyze
climatic datab) Collect and analyze production
and socio-economic datac) Correlate production
data with climate parametersd) Establish
climate change scenarios applicable to Sri
Lankae) Provide Special Training Workshop on
Integrated Assessment Modelling
20 1. Project changes in production under no
climate change and climate change scenarios
2. Calibrate and validate crop model
selected3. Apply the model for climate
scenarios developed4. Determine new
cropping calendar for coconut 5. Provide
training by a visiting scientist. 6.
Provide training opportunity to a few scientists
at IRICP
21 1. Assess impacts on production and
socio-economic factors.2. Identify
adaptation strategies and evaluate their cost
effectiveness.3. Training of scientists to
undertake future research on climate change
reports. 4. Attend meetings where the
findings of the assessments were
discussed.5. Formulate a set of
recommendations for the use of policy makers and
stake-holders. 6. Prepare the
final project report for submission to START.
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25Stake Holder Activity
- Members of Planters Associations, Exporters,
Trade and Officials from the Ministry of
Plantations were invited for the Inception
Seminar held in April 2002 - A presentation was made at a meeting held in
- May 2002 for the Planters to discuss future
developments in the industry - All stake holders were invited for the
inauguration of the IAM workshop held in
December, 2002 - In general, the response has been rather poor,
- except in the second
26Linking to National Communication
- Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources is
responsible for the 2nd NC preparation - Ministry has launched a programme under GEF
Enabling Activities Phase II, to support short
term studies on impacts and vulnerability
assessment - PI of the current project is a member of the
Steering Committee of this programme. - Ministry has endorsed the current project as
contributing to its effort to collect information
for the preparation of the 2nd NC of Sri Lanka
27THANK YOU