Socioeconomic Data, Trends and Scenarios in the Plantation Sector in Sri Lanka M T Neil Fernando

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Socioeconomic Data, Trends and Scenarios in the
Plantation Sector in Sri LankaM T Neil Fernando
A Jayakody

• Economic significance
• Research Questions to be Investigated
• Approach Adopted for Investigation of these
  Questions
• Major Problems Encountered or Anticipated
• Solutions for Overcoming Problems

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Economic Significance

• Plantation sector comprises tea, coconut and
  rubber (oil palm, sugarcane)
• The highest net foreign exchange earner 19 of
  export earnings

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• Export earnings Food import bill
• The biggest employer 20 employment in the
  economy
• Contribution to GDP 6

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Map of Sri Lanka showing tea and coconut growing
area Tea Coconut
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Research Questions to be Investigated

• What are the baseline socioeconomic scenarios
  without climate change
• Why ? Helps measure how changes in socioeconomic
  conditions could affect the sensitivity of the
  sector to climate change

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Approach Adopted for Investigation of these
Questions

• Socioeconomic data were collected from published
  sources
• Stakeholder survey was conducted by the Economist
  (TRI)
• Data trends will be projected for the future
  (forecasted using a decomposition model)

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• Develop some economic models that project the
  changes in socioeconomic conditions due to
  climate change

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Socioeconomic Data Trends

• Land use
• Demographic
• Input use
• Kernal products
• Non-kernal products

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Socioeconomic Data Trends in Tea Production
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High Grown Tea (Upcountry)
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High Grown Tea -3

• Over the last 4 decades total production doesnt
  show clear trend.
• Irregular pattern of production is mainly due to
  changes in the tea extent

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High Grown Tea -2
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High Grown Tea -3

• Productivity shows an upward trend

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Sample Data

• Agro-Ecological Regions in the High Grown Area
  are
• WU1,WU2,WU3 , IU1 and IU2
• Historical Data collected from Tea Estates in
  WU1,WU2 and IU2

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Tea Production and Rain Fall Pattern

• There are three scenarios found
• i)Reduction in No. of Wet Days per Month and
  Reduction in Monthly average Tea production but
  no reduction in Monthly RF WU2
• ii)Reduction in Total Monthly RF and Tea
  Production but there is increase in No.of Wet
  Days IU 2
• Iii)No Change in RF pattern and tea Production
• WU1

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Scenario 2- IU2
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Scenario 2- IU2
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Scenario 2- IU2
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Major Problems Encountered or Anticipated

• No reliable data are available for land use under
  coconuts, land fragmentation rate
• Too simple approaches to be employed to project
  the socioeconomic scenarios in the absence of
  climate change

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Solutions for Overcoming Problems

• Have to live with unreliable data
• Explore the appropriate analytical approaches by
  means of literature survey and interactions with
  fellow researchers perhaps by working in their
  climate laboratories

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• THANK YOU