Purpose of Human Contributions and Responses to Environmental Change Breakout Session

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Purpose of Human Contributions and Responses to
Environmental Change Breakout Session

• Present overview of Chapter 11 in draft Plan
• Opportunity for prepared comments by invited
  reviewers of the draft Plan
• Opportunity for verbal questions, comments, and
  discussion from workshop attendees
• IMPORTANT Reminder
• To be effective in improving the Strategic Plan,
  comments should be submitted electronically
  according to instructions on the website
• (www.climatescience.gov follow links to
  Strategic Plan)

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Human activities play an important part in
virtually all natural systems and are changing
the environment at local, regional, and, even,
global scales. Social, economic, and cultural
systems are also changing in a world that is more
crowded, urban, and interconnected, increasing
the resilience of some groups while increasing
the vulnerability of others. A more integrated
understanding of the complex interactions of
human and Earth-system processes is essential to
identify vulnerable systems and pursue options to
enhance resilience.
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A broad research agenda addressing human
contributions and responses to global change has
been identified in a series of National Academy
of Sciences reports. Global Environmental
Change Understanding the Human Dimensions (NRC,
1992) Global Environmental Change Research
Pathways for the Next Decade (NRC, 1999) Making
Climate Forecasts Matter (NRC, 1999) Under the
Weather Climate, Ecosystems, and Infectious
Disease (NRC, 2001)
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Drawing from NRC reports and from priority areas
identified by the scientific community through
federal research programs, HCR is organized
around two overarching questions How do humans
and human societies drive changes in the global
environment? How do humans respond to global
environmental change?
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Human Contributions and ResponsesIntegrated
Approach
Carbon Cycle Atmospheric Composition Climate
Land Use/Land Cover Change
Water Cycle
Modeling and Prediction
Observation Monitoring Surveillance
Decision Analysis
Decision Support
Analytic Studies

• Human Systems
• social
• economic
• cultural
• technological

Vulnerability and Risk Assessment
Prospective Field/ Process Study
Data Rescue and Archive
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Research is focused on the following areas
Human drivers of change Impacts of change and
adaptive capacity in the face of
change Decision-making under conditions of
complexity and uncertainty Human health effects
of global change For all areas, need to
support the integration of social, economic, and
health data with environmental data.
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Key Questions Question 1 What are the
magnitudes, interrelationships, and significance
of the primary human drivers of change in
atmospheric composition and the climate system,
changes in land use and land cover and other
changes in the global environment?
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• Question 1 continued
• What are the processes involved in, the trends
  associated with, and how might scenarios/projectio
  ns be developed for
• Population growth and demographic change
• (e.g., relationship with economic productivity,
  energy use)
• Technological change
• (e.g., what induces technological innovation?)
• Trade and global economic activity
• (e.g., movement of goods and services across
  countries)

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• Question 1 continued
• Key points
• Broad area of research level of understanding
  is uneven
• Need better understanding, analysis, and
  projections of socioeconomic factors (e.g.,
  population, technology, trade, economic activity,
  land use), especially for use in quantitative
  modeling (e.g., integrated assessment models) and
  scenario development.

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Key Questions Question 2 What are the
current and potential future impacts of global
environmental variability and change on human
welfare, what factors influence the capacity of
human societies to respond to change, and how can
resilience be increased and vulnerability
reduced?
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• Question 2 continued
• Need to analyze
• combined impacts of climate change, change in
  water quality and availability, land use change,
  and ecosystem change
• vulnerability in human systems
• capacity for adaptation
• past methods of adapting
• use of improved scientific information to
  adapt more effectively.

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• Question 2 continued
• Key points
• Progress in moving from impacts assessments to
  analyses of vulnerability and adaptive capacity
• Need empirical studies, field campaigns, and
  model-based simulation studies of factors
  affecting vulnerability and adaptive capacity
• Need to consider multiple social and natural
  system stresses.

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Key Questions Question 3 How can the
methods and capabilities available for societal
decision making under conditions of global
environmental variability and change be enhanced?
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• Question 3 continued
• Need to analyze
• Representing, propagating, analyzing,
  describing, and communicating uncertainties
• Understanding economic costs and opportunities
  (societal, organizational, and individual)
• Representing how individuals make choices
  regarding threats whose consequences are
  long-term and uncertain
• Modeling decision making
• Understanding private, governmental, and social
  decision making.

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• Question 3 continued
• Key points
• Research has been done on potential impacts of
  climate variability and change but less so on how
  individuals and organizations can make better
  decisions to reduce risks and benefit from
  opportunities
• Research needed on what information is needed
  by decision makers, what they know about global
  change what resources would be most useful.

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Key Questions Question 4 What are the
potential human health effects of global
environmental change, and what tools and climate
and environmental information are needed to
assess and address the cumulative risk to health
from these effects?
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• Question 4 continued
• Need to analyze
• Impacts of changes in water quality and
  quantity, ecosystems, land use and climate on
  infectious disease can prevention, detection and
  response be improved?
• Impacts of atmospheric and climatic changes on
  the health effects associated with ambient air
  quality and ultraviolet radiation
• ? Health effects and response strategies
  associated with temperature extremes and with
  extreme weather events?
• Best methods for assessing climate-related
  health impacts and developing tools to enhance
  public health
• ? Effects on human health of new technologies for
  global change mitigation and adaptation.

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• Question 4 continued
• Key points
• Research has covered health affects of ozone,
  atmospheric particulates, UV radiation, and
  heat-related illnesses more recently, improved
  understanding of impacts of climate variability
  on infectious diseases.
• Research and agenda-setting exercises over the
  past decade have identified key research needs
• Examples exposure to UV radiation across regions
  and populations long-term field studies,
  empirical analysis, and integrated modeling of
  impacts of climate.
• Example products will include tools for
  preventing and managing public health threats
  assessments of combined exposures (e.g., climate
  and air pollution) next phase of health sector
  assessments for US.

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Contributing agencies with research
programs DOE, EPA, NIH/HHS, NASA, NOAA, NSF,
USDA
Conclusion

• Broad agenda
• Critical to all of the key elements of global
  change (e.g., carbon, climate, atmospheric
  composition)
• Extremely limited resources for certain topics
• Significant progress in many areas (e.g.,
  integrated assessment modeling, health effects,
  land use change, factors driving change, moving
  from impacts to vulnerability and adaptive
  capacity, integration with natural and physical
  science elements).