Assessment of Impacts of and Adaptation to Climate Change in Multiple Regions and Sectors (AIACC)

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Welcome
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Assessment of Impacts of and Adaptation to
Climate Change in Multiple Regions and Sectors
(AIACC)
Potential Impacts of Climate Change and VA
Assessment for Grassland Ecosystem and
Livestock Sector in Mongolia
Asia-Pacific Regional Workshop Bangkok, 24-27
March 2002
P.Batima, PI of the project, Institute of
Meteorology and Hydrology
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Contents

• Climate change studies in Mongolia
• Project objectives
• Institutional Involvement
• Methodology
• Results

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Climate Changes Studies in Mongolia
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Climate Changes Studies in Mongolia
The first climate change study carried out under
the US Country Studies Program (USCSP), in which
prepared the first GHG inventory for 1990 and
conducted preliminary assessment of climate
change impacts.
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Climate Changes Studies in Mongolia
In 1999 Mongolia has developed its National
Action Programme on Climate Change (NAPCC) with
assistance from the Government of the
Netherlands. The programme comprises an overview
of impact assessment, possible adaptation
measures, GHGs emission inventory and its
projections, GHGs mitigation measures, and
response measures implementation strategies.
Mongolia has submitted the Initial National
Communication to the UNFCCC in 2001.
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Project Development

• Implement NAPCC
• Contribute to second NC

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Project Objectives
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Institutional Involvement
The ministry most closely involved in climate
change and environmental problem is the Ministry
of Nature and Environment (MNE).
The Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology is the
administrating institution for the project
implementation. The institute conducts climate
change studies since 1993.
Other important organizations, which are
involving in the project activities, the JEMR
Co.LTD, Mongolian Academy of Sciences,
International Institute for Study of Nomadic
Civilization, Natural Resource Ecology
Laboratory, Colorado State University,
Information and Computer Center, Institute of
Geography, SATU Co.LTD, Mongolian National
University, University of Agriculture and others.
Private sectors and NGOs are also involving in
climate change activities.
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Stakeholder
Consultants Experts Workshop
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Methodologies
The analytical approaches are based on review and
evaluation of past studies and learning from the
evaluation.
The ecosystem model CENTURY, The Dynamic
statistical model of the ewe weight and Basin
Conceptual model
Remote sensing and GIS technologies are using for
data gathering, thematic processing of
attributes, maps and images



Participatory involvement survey
Training
Field survey
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Work plan

• Past and present climate change impact
• Vulnerability and Future CC impact
• Integrated and Adaptation Assessment

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Trend analysis Temperature (annual,
seasonal, heath and cold wave)
Precipitation (annual, seasonal,
percentile) Responses to climate change
Natural resources (water, snow cover, soil)
Pasture (productivity, capacity, phenology)
Animal husbandry (weight, productivity) Field
study Natural disaster
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Trend analysis
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Changes in Temperature

• World air temperature 0.3-0.60C
• for last 100 years
• Annual mean temperature 1.66oC of Mongolia

• Winter temperature 3.61oC
• Spring 1.5oC
• Summer 0oC

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Changes in Temperature
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Changes in Precipitation
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Responses to climate change
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Water Resources
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Snow Cover
Ìèæèääîðæ, ªëçèéñàéõàí
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Animal Husbandry
Áàÿðáààòàð
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Natural disaster
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Drought and wind storm
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Field survey
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Steps
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Thank you for your attention
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Outputs

• Based on the results of the Impact and VA
  assessment on key socio-economic and
  environmental sectors, the following documents,
  consistent with Mongolia National Action Program
  on Climate Change, will be prepared and submitted
  to the Government
• Report of Climate Change Impact and VA
  Assessment for socio-economic development. The
  report will include vulnerability of rangeland
  ecosystems and pastoral systems to climate change
  (warming, variability and extremes) and land use
  intensity identified through integrated impact,
  adaptation and vulnerability assessments, using
  long-term climate and plant records, RS sensing
  data (AVHRR and TM), ecosystem model CENTURY and
  field survey.
• Recommendations of the economically effective and
  culturally acceptable adaptation measures in
  pasture management and livestock development to
  support national sustainable development
  strategies will be suggested. Implementation
  strategies of the most promising adaptation
  measures in vulnerable region will be
  recommended.
• Climate mitigation options in the context of
  development, sustainability and equity will be
  evaluated, and potential adaptation strategies
  for policymaking will be developed for each land
  use type regions, with particular emphasis on the
  most vulnerable coupled environment-human
  systems.
• Several peer-reviewed papers and Vulnerability
  and Adaptation Assessment of Grassland Ecosystem
  and Pastoral System to Climate Change in
  Mongolia book will be written as a result of
  this project.