Climate change and biodiversity: Developing tools for assessing impacts and their implications for conservation

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Climate change and biodiversity Developing tools
for assessing impacts and their implications for
conservation

• Guy Midgley, Mike Rutherford, Greg Hughes
• National Botanical Institute, Cape Town

With acknowledgements Paul Williams, London Nat
Hist Mus
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Conservation investment
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Conservation investment
Conserve species under natural conditions Conserve
ecosystems and their natural processes Conserve
habitats for maintaining biodiversity Maintain
key processes (eg water yield) Support tourism
and ecotourism Support livelihoods (eg
wildflower, medicinal) Support commercial
agri-business
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Conservation investment
Protected Areas often selected ad hoc, developed
before good species data were available, on land
not wanted or less valuable Biodiversity no
longer static, but dynamic!
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We address two main problems

• How to predict climate change impacts on
  ecosystems and species (biodiversity)
• How to assess ability of conservation strategies
  (current PA network) to cope with these impacts

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Bioclimatic modeling method
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Bioclimatic modeling method
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Automated methods
Access
Species data
Grads
Climate data
Arcview
Data matching
SPlus
Statistical model
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Protea Atlas database (NBI) 330 species
(Proteaceae), 40 000 localities
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HadCM2
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Overall threat of climate change to Proteaceae
diversity
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Fynbos Biome distribution current and future
Lowland species
Montane species
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Leucospermum tomentosum distribution current and
2050 (HadCM2 excluding sulphates)
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Protea lacticolor distribution current and
future (HadCM2 excluding sulphates)
20 km
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contract (highest risk)
persist (safe)
colonize (high risk)
Displacement risk 1 persist/current
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Proteaceae - displacement risk
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contract (highest risk)
persist (safe)
colonize (high risk)
Extinction risk proportional to range loss (with
and without dispersal)
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Uncertainties
Climate scenarios Spatial climate data (historic,
current) Species distribution data Bioclimatic
modelling approach Human land use Dispersal and
establishment
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Ant-dispersal
Wind-dispersal
Knowledge about dispersal syndromes is critical
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Range size changes (HadCM2) (250 Proteaceae,
2000 to 2050)
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Automated methods
Access
Species data
Dynamic range modelling method
Grads
Climate data
Arcview
Data matching
SPlus
Statistical model
Protected area risk analysis
Future projectionrisk assessment
Simple range shift assumptions
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Time-slice models
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
(se scop)
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Richness of dispersal pathways for the 18 species
that are committed to migration
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Human land use, intensity of transformation
Dispersal pathways
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Automated methods
Access
Species data
Dynamic range modelling method
Grads
Climate data
Arcview
Data matching
SPlus
Statistical model
Protected area risk analysis
Future projectionrisk assessment
Simple range shift assumptions