Realise the longterm climate change integrations

1
CLIVAR Contributions to Implementation of the
WCRP Strategic Framework Priorities to 2013 and
Beyond
Jim Hurrell and Howard Cattle
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Outline of JSC-30 presentation

• Mission and Objectives
• Organization
• Contributions to WCRP Implementation Plan
• Unifying COPES Themes
• WCRP Cross Cuts
• Priorities Over the Next 5 years
• Frontiers Beyond 2013
• Infrastructure Needs
• Issues for JSC Consideration

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CLIVAR input to WCRP Implementation Plan

• Latest CLIVAR Draft 25 March 2009
• Updated in response to comments from JSC
• (on 11 February 2009 version)

• A work in progress In particular, CLIVAR
  SSG-16
• (Madrid, 19-22 May 2009) will
• Review, reaffirm and build consensus on the
• intermediate- term priorities
• More fully address JSC comments/concerns,
• including how to deliver on CLIVAR
  contributions
• Focus on emerging science challenges for
• 2013 and beyond

4
Priorities Over the Next 5 years
Approach

• Organize around
• ACC, decadal and seasonal prediction, monsoon
• and extremes cross cuts under COPES
• Additional focus on observations, synthesis and
  
• ocean modeling as a particular CLIVAR
  contributions
• to overarching COPES themes

• Asked each panel to identify top priorities
  under
• each topic above (as appropriate)
• 2-3 imperatives for each topic (15 total)
• Reflects breadth and depth of activities

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Priorities Over the Next 5 years
Imperative 1

• Anthropogenic Climate Change
• Realize long-term climate change integrations
  under
• WGCM/AIMES/IAM joint planning

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Priorities Over the Next 5 years
Imperative 2

• Anthropogenic Climate Change
• Promote analysis of CMIP5

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Priorities Over the Next 5 years
Imperative 2

• Anthropogenic Climate Change
• Promote analysis of CMIP5

• Explore regional change through regional panels

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Priorities Over the Next 5 years
Imperatives 3-5

• Decadal Variability and Predictions
• (Key Focus Across CLIVAR)

• To what extent is decadal variability in the
  oceans
• and atmosphere predictable?

• What are the mechanisms of variability?

Predictability Determined by Mechanisms

• Interactions of Forced
• and Natural Variability

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Priorities Over the Next 5 years
Imperatives 3-5

• Decadal Variability and Predictions
• (Key Focus Across CLIVAR)
• To what extent is decadal variability in the
  oceans
• and atmosphere predictable?

• What are the mechanisms of variability?

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Priorities Over the Next 5 years
Imperatives 3-5

• Decadal Variability and Predictions
• (Key Focus Across CLIVAR)
• Do we have the proper tools to realize the
• predictability?

• (Coupled) data assimilation systems to
  initialize models?

• Models good enough to make skillful
  predictions?

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Priorities Over the Next 5 years
Imperatives 3-5

• Decadal Variability and Predictions
• (Key Focus Across CLIVAR)
• First attempts already underway

12
Priorities Over the Next 5 years
Imperatives 6-8

• Seasonal Prediction (see also April 2009 WCRP
  Report)
• Realize CHFP as WCRP-wide activity leading to
• improved predictions

• Experimental Protocol defined
• 10 Participating Groups (12 models)
• Development of diagnostic subprojects

• Building links for pan-WCRP involvement

GEWEX GLACE-2 SPARC Stratospheric Historical
Forecast Project CliC Snow Cover Impact
Experiments

• Data Distribution Strategy in Place

Three distributed data servers Data can be
downloaded in common format and grid
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Priorities Over the Next 5 years
Imperatives 6-8

• Seasonal (and Longer-Term) Prediction
• Facilitate completion of key process studies

• Improve prediction of key tropical modes (ENSO,
  TAV)

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Priorities Over the Next 5 years
Imperative 9

• Monsoons and African Climate Variability
• Contribute to improved predictions through

• Leveraging key WCRP modeling experiments
  diagnostic subprojects

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Priorities Over the Next 5 years
Imperative 10

• Extremes
• With GEWEX organized focused WCRP activity

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Priorities Over the Next 5 years
Imperative 10

• Extremes
• With GEWEX organized focused WCRP activity

• Initial thrust on drought

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Priorities Over the Next 5 years
Imperative 11

• Improved Ocean Models (WGOMD)

• Key to achieving CLIVAR/WCRP goals for ocean
• analysis, seasonal and decadal prediction and
  
• anthropogenic climate change

Atlantic MOC index from a suite of coupled
climate models
Differences in amplitude and time scale of
simulated MOC variability Perfect model
predictability experiments would likely show
correspondingly distinct behaviors
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Priorities Over the Next 5 years
Imperative 11

• Improved Ocean Models (WGOMD)

• Key to achieving CLIVAR/WCRP goals for ocean
• analysis, seasonal and decadal prediction and
  
• anthropogenic climate change

WGOMD Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference
Experiments
CORE-I Results 500 yr repeating annual cycle

• CORE-II protocol
• Interannually-varying forcing
• based on analysis products
• Web-based repository for evaluating
• ocean simulations (REOS)

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Priorities Over the Next 5 years
Imperative 12

• Continue development of ocean synthesis
• products and reanalysis

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Priorities Over the Next 5 years
Imperative 13

• Further development/implementation of
• Pacific and Indian Ocean systems
• Development of Southern Ocean (with
• SCAR) and South Atlantic systems
• With IOCCP and IGBP IMBER and SOLAS
• strategy for future ocean hydrography,
• carbon and biogeochemistry
• measurements through GO_SHIP
• Refine and augment Argo
• Facilitate implementation of network
• of autonomous measurements
• of deep ocean (deep Argo)

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Priorities Over the Next 5 years
Imperatives 14-15

• Develop and Strengthen Interactions with
• Ocean Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem Communities

• Develop and strengthen existing links with IGBP
  
• (IMBER/GLOBEC,SOLAS), carbon
  (ESSP/CGP,IOCCP),
• fisheries (ICESPICES), and many other
  regional
• efforts e.g. SIBER (INDIAN OCEAN)
• Joint targeted workshops
• Develop ocean carbon aspects of ocean
  synthesis
• activities (WGCM with IGBP AIMES/WGOMD
  GSOP)

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CLIVAR ImperativesBuilding a Consensus

• Discuss for max 15 Minutes each Imperative.
• Tonight think about what it means for the SSG
  family to execute them.
• Tomorrow decide on mechanisms to follow through
  and how these are leading us toward addressing
  the grand challenges.

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CLIVAR ImperativesBuilding a Consensus

• The Imperatives were put together in response to
  the request of input to the WCRP Strategic
  Framework
• We had organized and communicated them along the
  WCRP crosscutting activities
• Numbers are not in order of importance
• Pay attention if we have missed out something
• Map out in your mind the contributions from your
  group of experts

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The Dimensions of CLIVAR Science
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The Dimensions of CLIVAR Science
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Themes we have used to organize the imperatives
around

• Anthropogenic Climate Change (I1 I2)
• Decadal Variability / Prediction (I3 I4 I5)
• Seasonal Prediction (I6 I7 I8)
• Monsoons (I9)
• Extremes (I10)
• Development of global observing system, modeling,
  reanalysis (I11 I12 I13 I14)
• Process Observations (I7)

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I1 Analysis of Climate Change Integrations
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(No Transcript)
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I2 Regional Aspects of ACC through regional models
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To explore regional aspects of ACC through CLIVAR
regional studies, including use of regional
models.

• What are the factors that make a region to be
  poorly (or adequately) represented?

• Teleconnection mechanisms?
• (O-A-L)
• Regional processes?
• (O-A, L-A, O-A-L)

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To explore regional aspects of ACC through CLIVAR
regional studies, including use of regional
models.
Regional Features in Claris-LPB and AMMA case
studies (Prepared by Daniela Jacob, for the
CLARIS-LPB meeting at the Lund RCM Wshop) But
applicable to NARCCAP, Asian Monsoon, Somali Jet)

• (Some) dynamical flow features in the regions
• ITCZ, SACZ
• Subtropical highs
• Trades/monsoons (WAM)
• Jet streams (AEJ, LLJ)
• Mesoscale convective systems (MCS)
• Regional/local characteristics
• Land sea/lake breezes, orography (eg. Ethiopian
  highlands, Andes)
• Studies of interactions of large scale flows with
  convective systems using high resolution models
  are part of both AMMA and Claris-LPB (RCM)
• High resolutions for oceans and along the coast
  also needed (coupled AORCM)

34
To explore regional aspects of ACC through CLIVAR
regional studies, including use of regional
models.

• Improvement of regional scenarios
• Need to understand why a region is poorly
  represented, but as important, why other regions
  are properly represented -both through process
  studies (e.g., role of land cover changes)
• Identify a useful set of metrics to assess
  vulnerability (time or temperature approach?
  Ref Ongoing discussion in Claris LPB)
• Such questions require the involvement of
  regional projects with an understanding of the
  regional climate.
• - TFRCD - WGCM
• - CORDEX (COordinated Regional climate
  Downscaling Experiment)
• - NARCCAP
• - CLARIS-LPB
• - AMMA

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To explore regional aspects of ACC through CLIVAR
regional studies, including use of regional
models.

• Timeline depends on TFRCD and CORDEX progress,
  but links should be established within one year.
• Identify common subjects of interest (e.g., at
  the recent RCM meeting in Lund it became evident
  that groups like NARCCAP, Claris LPB and AMMA
  have many issues in common)
• (List the needs from national/regional programs)
• CLIVAR regional groups need to begin
  interactions with the modeling community,
  particularly the TFRCD. Joint workshop?
• List the needs from CLIVAR (workshops, working
  group etc.)

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I3 Decadal Prediction
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I4 ACC, patterns/modes, decadal variability
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CLIVAR Imperative 4 Impacts of anthropogenic
forcing on the dominant patterns of decadal
variability and the interactions between the two
Helge Drange

• Anthropogenic forcing
• GHGs, ozone aerosols
• Direct effect
• GHGs e.g. increased SST and SSS (with spatial
  variations) changes in hydrography cryosphere
  and albedo changes in soil moisture weakened
  Walker circulation,
• Ozone Increased southern ocean wind stress
• Aerosols Land-sea contrast continental
  patterns 
• Amplified (non-linear) response
• e.g. Arctic warming melting tundra (CO2CH4)
  marine and terrestrial CO2-uptake weakened AMOC
  future of overflows
• Uncertainty related to future (anthropogenicfeedb
  ack) forcing
• Multi-model sensitivity experiments needed
  (2-degree or 6 deg warming?)
• Tipping points/regime shifts
• For instance related to the combined effect of
  anthropogenic forcing, natural forcing
  (sunvolcanoes) and extreme phases of natural
  variability

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CLIVAR Imperative 4 Impacts of anthropogenic
forcing on the dominant patterns of decadal
variability and the interactions between the two
Helge Drange

• Risk for abrupt changes
• Combined effect of anthropogenic and natural
  forcing, natural variability
• Remote response
• e.g. Indian/western Pacific SST -gt NAO response
  -gt N Atl SPG -gt AMOC/AMO
• General issues
• (Non-)Stationarity/(un-)stable relationship
  between forcing and response
• The extent to which the background climate state
  influence the variability modes
• Time window
• Today next few decades end of the 21st century
• All considerations
• Variability in nature (can the instrumental
  record be complemented by temporal and spatial
  high-resolution paleoclimate reconstructions?)
• Variability in models (do model deficiencies,
  biases or drift influence the variability
  characteristic of the model?) need for
  multi-model approach

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CLIVAR Imperative 4 Impacts of anthropogenic
forcing on the dominant patterns of decadal
variability and the interactions between the two
Helge Drange

• International (CLIVAR) effort to help make
  progress
• Available and new instrumental observations,
  paleoclimate reconstructions (timespace), theory
  (e.g., teleconnection), modelling
• Focus on interplay between anthropogenic forcing,
  natural forcing and extreme phases of the
  variability modes may lead to rapid and/or
  irreversible changes?
• Urgent need to identify critical anthropogenic
  forcing to reduce likelyhood for abrupt (or
  irreversible) changes
• CLIVARs role
• Dedicated workshop (based on CMIP5?)
• Engagement between Working Groups link
  observations and observation strategies,
  peleoclimatic records, model improvement
  (deficiencies, biases, drift) and extensive
  modelling assessments
• Focus on a few processes/regions (Atlantic-Arctic
  is one candidate)

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I5 Oceans role in decadal variability
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Improve understanding of the oceans role in
decadal variability through coordinated
monitoring modeling

• Internal variability (AMV, PDV) has clear
  societal impacts (e.g. hurricane activity,
  regional drought, fisheries)

• AMV MOC plays role spatial pattern
  (hemispheric SST dipole)
• PDO weak ocean-atmosphere coupling -?
• Likely that AMV / PDV cannot be understood
  independently

• External GHG and aerosol forcings will alter
  statistics of these regional patterns

43
Improve understanding of the oceans role in
decadal variability through coordinated
monitoring modeling

• Scientific Challenges
• Observations
• Provide initial conditions for assimilation into
  models (new technologies)
• Measure basin-scale mass transports, and
  storage/transports of heat, FW, carbon (until
  models accurately reproduce these)
• Partnerships with assimilation community
  (evaluation of products) and Carbon community
  (IOCCP, SIC)

• Modeling
• Identify and fix model biases (may differ on
  regional basis)
• Reproduce observed ocean transports ( improved
  resolution, physical parameterizations)
• Determine mechanisms of decadal to multi-decadal
  variability
• Separate influences of internal variability from
  external forcings

44
Improve understanding of the oceans role in
decadal variability through coordinated
monitoring modeling

• Near term (2009 - 2013)
• Implement MOC observing system at various
  latitudes (N. Atl subpolar, S. Atl subtropics
  continue RAPID, MOVE, Line W) and passages
  (Drake, Agulhas, Arctic-subArctic)
• Implement deep ocean observing system
• Funded at national, institutional levels, but
  internationally coordinated
• Workshops needed to develop plans,
  proposals
• Address model biases, consistency of simulated
  ocean transports
• Multi-model experimentation, internationally
  coordinated
• Working Groups to document various biases by
  analyzing large sets of models and synthesis
  products (perhaps on regional basis)
• Longer term (2013)
• Converge to sustained ocean observing system for
  initialization and verification of models

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I6 Climate System Historical Forecast Project
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To realise the Climate System Historical Forecast
Project (CHFP) as a WCRP-wide activity leading to
improved seasonal predictions

• Provide baseline assessment of seasonal
  prediction capabilities using the best available
  models and data for initialization
• Observing system design and assessment
• Model improvements
• Provide experimental framework for focused
  research on how various components of the climate
  system interact and affect one another
• Provide a test bed for evaluating IPCC class
  models in seasonal prediction and WX prediction
  systems on (sub-)seasonal timescales

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• Completing baseline experiment
• Ensuring data accessibility
• Encouraging diagnostic sub-projects
• Collaboration with ENSEMBLES, APCC
• Completing climate component interaction
  experiments
• Collaboration GEWEX-GLACE, SPARC, CliC
• Extending WX models to (sub-)seasonal (THORPEX)
• Extending beyond the baseline
• Model improvements process studies
• Observing system assessment, design
• IPCC/AR5 seasonal prediction participation

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• Data availability (CIMA, APCC) Baseline
  completed
• June 2009-July 2010
• GLACE July 2010
• Diagnostic sub-projects Additional follow-on
  experiments?
• Programmatic support () for sub-projects and
  follow-on experiments (AR5 contribution)
• Support for WGSIP/CIMA meeting
• CliC, GEWEX, SPARC Participation
• Support for close-out workshop (AR5 contribution)

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I7 Complete CLIVAR endorsed campaigns
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Facilitate key CLIVAR-endorsed observational
campaigns and their data legacy for CLIVAR
activities

• Mostly process studies
• Wide-spread scientific themes (time- and
  space-scales, locations, etc)
• (TACE, SPICE, NPOCE, VOCALS, MESA, LPB, AMMA,
  AMY, WAVES, TRIO, ASOF, KESS, CLIMODE, DIMES, )
• Focusing on processes that are important for
  better understanding of monsoon systems, regional
  ocean circulations, air-sea interactions,
  hydrological cycles, etc.

51
Facilitate key CLIVAR-endorsed observational
campaignsand their data legacy for CLIVAR
activities

• Scientific targets and challenges are provided in
  the science plan of each activity
• Collaboration with local/national observational
  activities and researches
• Collaboration among the process studies, with
  large-scale observing systems
• Inputs from and feedbacks to the integrated
  modeling activities are required
• (what is the required observations, what is the
  best data stream, how to implement a new
  understandings and parameterizations, )
• Extension to long-term observations

52
Facilitate key CLIVAR-endorsed observational
campaignsand their data legacy for CLIVAR
activities

• Coordination of related observational studies
  under SSG and/or each panel
• Data portal for the CLIVAR-endorsed campaigns
• OceanObs09 good opportunity for the ocean
  related studies to know other activities (Met.
  Land surface?)
• A workshop to enhance collaboration among the
  observational activities and with modeling
  activities (2010 or 2011?) (or at CLIVAR Science
  Conference)

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I8 Tropical Modes of Variability
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Imperative 8

• To reduce uncertainties in the role of modes of
  tropical variability
• for seasonal and decadal prediction

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Science

• ENSO and MJO (review paper in preparation,
  Lengaigne et al.)
• ENSO and annual cycle (Timmermann New linear
  framework submitted to JCL to explain the
  seasonal synchronization of ENSO events. Still
  unresolved mechanisms for frequency entrainment)
• ENSO and Atlantic zonal mode (Atlantic Nino)
  Remote forcing from ENSO (the atmospheric
  response), and local air-sea interaction that
  works against the atmospheric response.
• ENSO and Atlantic meridional mode (CGCMs
  demonstate that Caribbean temperatures can affect
  ENSO amplitude very significantly, needed are
  proxy data for ENSO and the AMM to verify this
  relation interactions with PAGES needed joint
  PAGES-CLIVAR workshop on interbasin interactions
  )
• ENSO and the IOD CGCMs shows that without the
  IOD, ENSO properties (amplitude, frequency )
  change significantly, need to understand the
  two-way interaction
• ENSO and Indian monsoon Some El Niños create
  drought while some dont Unstable relationship
  on decadal scales

56
Implementation better simulation of modes of
variability (ENSO) (hard to put a timeline)

• Cold bias removal
• Simulation of TIWs, WWBs, and ISO
• Better representation of annual cycle
  overtuning of thermocline sharpness may improve
  ENSO but weaken annual cycle performance
• Better representation of convection and global
  teleconnections
• New diagnostic tools (BJ index) to identify the
  main physical deficiencies of CGCMs in terms of
  ENSO performance gt could be adopted for Atlantic
  Nino
• Better representation of ENSO, its irregularity,
  flavour, and teleconnections, is pre-requisite to
  improve representation of Pacific decadal
  variability

57
Implementation Seasonal and Decadal Prediction
(hard to put a timeline)

• Improvements in seasonal prediction of ENSO rely
  on a better representation of WWBs, MJO, annual
  cycle and ENSO growth
• Application of BJ index framework to ENSEMBLES,
  CLIIPAS and DEMETER data
• This would give enormous insight into why
  different prediction models perform differently
• A large part of the decadal signal in the Pacific
  is an ENSO residual. Decadal predictions can be
  useless, if the ENSO performance and
  representation of teleconnections do not improve
• Examination of how decadal signals project onto
  interannaul scales?

58
Cross-panel activities

• Tropical variability and greenhouse warming
• (Perth conference, review paper on ENSO and
  Climate Change in preparation, Matt Collins,
  Wenju Cai)
• Atlantic panel could initiate activity to
  diagnose the effects of greenhouse warming on the
  Atlantic Niño and meridional mode
• AAMP/Indian Ocean Panel could initiate activity
  to diagnose effects of greenhouse warming on the
  IOD
• Due to the interaction of the IOD, ENSO, Atlantic
  variability, this could become a nice cross-basin
  panel activity

59
Timelines
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I9 Global Monsoon Systems
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Imperative 9 contribute to improved prediction
of the global monsoon systems and African climate
variability, including capacity building.
ENSO (and maybe IOD) predictable 2-3 seasons, but
cant predict monsoon even at short lead time.
Statistical schemes are no better.
LT 1mnth
Pre-monsoon SON
Monsoon DJF
Rainfall Forecast Skill Anomaly Correlation from
dynamical hindcasts 1980-2006

• Stymied by
• Lousy models poor representation of convection
  (diurnal cycle, ISV/MJO), land surface
  processes, resolution, coupling with upper ocean
• Lousy initialization upper ocean,
  convection/rain, land surface
• But maybe seasonal monsoon is inherently
  unpredictable
• Other sources of predictability beyond ENSO
  Atlantic, Indian Ocean, land surface..?

62
BoM prediction from 1/1/86
Monsoons dominated by ISV Enormous scope for
practical application of skilful IntraSeasonal
forecasts maybe of more utility than seasonal
prediction because seasonal variability low, ISV
high Ability/techniques to predict monsoon ISV
unknown, but promising
63

• Scientific challenges
• Improved models, especially convection, monsoon
  expression of MJO/ISV, land surface processes,
  upper ocean mixed layer
• Coordinated assessment of representation of key
  monsoon components, esp MJO/ISV and its monsoon
  signature, diurnal cycle, land surface
• Determination of limits of predictability
  ISV-IA-decadal
• Improved initialization (upper-deep
  ocean/land/ice)
• Intraseasonal initialization/ensemble generation
• Development and delivery of useful prediction
  products (capitalize on whats predcitable)

64

• Promote diagnostic sub-projects of CLIVAR-CHFP
  and GEWEX-GLACE2
• establish limits of seasonal monsoon
  predictability, impact of land surface
  initialization, benefit of higher resolution,
  ., (funds for post-doc-PI to take lead)
• Promote WCRP-IMS project on Reproduction and
  Prediction of Monsoon ISO
• Support monsoon ISV prediction experiment (Bin
  Wang/Duane Waliser)
• Support proposed MJO Task Force
• Facilitate coordination of the ISV
  prediction/simulation projects for AMY07- 12,
  YOTC, VAMOS, AMMA,.
• Monsoon ISV prediction/simulation Workshop
  2010
• Monsoon regions encompass many countries with
  limited resources for operational prediction and
  research
• Capacity building is critical scientific
  expertise, operational capability, product
  development and delivery
• Support for regional participation in ISV/MJO
  prediction workshop
• Support for regional participation in CHFP
  sub-project on monsoon prediction/assessment

65
I10 Extrems
66
Organized focused WCRP activity on climate
extremes (with GEWEX)

• Extremes matter...demand for info
• Extremes research observe, detect, attribute,
  model, predictability, experimental prediction
• Climate variability affects extremes -
  attribution becoming clearer. We may find some
  predictability (seasonal and longer) for some
  extremes (e.g. drought).
• What about ocean extremes such as warm temps
  leading to coral bleaching and sea ice retreat?

67
Organized focused WCRP activity on climate
extremes (with GEWEX)

• Implementing a drought prediction imperative
• CLIVAR-GEWEX Drought Interest Group (DIG) - see
  submitted report)
• Challenges
• Many disparate activities within CLIVAR/GEWEX
  could contribute, but few/none have done so.
• Requires close collaboration between GEWEX and
  CLIVAR, with ties to CLiC. Drought doesnt fit
  neatly within WCRP!
• Maintaining focus amidst high expectations.
  Drought is a multi-disciplinary and, at times,
  societally driven extreme.

DROUGHT

• Implementing additional foci on extremes
• Increased level of planning/consideration of
  extremes with regional Panels, modeling Panels,
  and ETCCDI (who has been doing this for some
  time). Sharper focus on extremes highly
  recommended!

68
Organized focused WCRP activity on climate
extremes (with GEWEX)

• Timeline
• 2009 Build inventory of drought-related research
  activities, entrain regional expertise into DIG,
  develop draft publication outline (assessment of
  drought prediction-ability)
• 2010 Develop draft drought publication. Plan
  international drought (prediction-themed)
  workshop complete/round out the drought
  publication
• Program needs (national/regional)
• Evaluate regional drought predictability (use
  existing and new modeling experiments)
• Other drought research
• Needs from CLIVAR
• Continued staff support (thanks Anna!)
• Financial support for DIG to meet formally to
  plan the publication and workshop
• Support from WCRP/CLIVAR for an international
  workshop (2010/earl 2011)

DROUGHT
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I11 Coupled Models (focus on Ocean)
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CLIVAR Imperative Realize scientifically robust
coupled model simulations and improve the ocean
components within them

• Three key areas where ocean climate models are
  essential
• AMOC and Arctic variability, predictability,
  stability (including ice)
• Sea level rise thermal expansion
  ocean/ice-shelf interactions
• Southern Ocean dynamical and biogeochemical
  (esp. carbon cycle) response to increasing
  westerlies

AMOC anomaly in coupled models from NCAR and
GFDL. From Hurrell et al.OceanObs09
Southern ocean temp and density change. From
Boening et al. (2008)
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CLIVAR Imperative Realize scientifically robust
coupled model simulations and improve the ocean
components within them

• Challenges for physical processes in ocean
  models
• AMOC and Arctic
• mesoscale and submesocale eddies parameterized
  and/or resolved
• boundary currents and gyres transport and eddy
  generation
• water mass formation, including overflows and
  deep convection
• poleward heat to the Arctic and its impact on sea
  ice
• Sea level rise
• steric effects water mass properties and
  non-Boussinesq kinematics
• ice-shelf/ocean interactions dynamic solid
  boundaries and flow under shelves
• Southern ocean
• effects from mesoscale eddies (e.g., saturation)
  not presently robust across models
• shelf interactions for downslope flows
  (ventilation) often missing or poorly represented
• topographic interactions steer mean flows and
  generate eddies
• Drift and biases Greatly handicap simulations,
  requiring improved processes, better numerics,
  and improved component models (ocean, atmosphere,
  land, sea and land ice). This issue will
  continue to limit our ability to address the key
  questions above, and others such as ocean
  acidification.
• Partnerships to evolve understanding and improve
  models
• Process modelers and theorists fundamentals and
  parameterizations
• Climate modelers processes and sensitivities in
  larger context, and motivate areas for
  measurements
• Observationalists guidance and feedback from
  measurements

72
CLIVAR Imperative Realize scientifically robust
coupled model simulations and improve the ocean
components within them

• Timeline 10 years to garner robust
  understanding and quantification of
  uncertainties, which in particular should provide
  better idea of what models must either resolve or
  can parameterize.
• enhanced studies of processes
• experiences with refined ocean and coupled models
• continued measurements and comparison to
  simulations
• Needs from programs and CLIVAR
• Climate Process Teams proven venue to help
  improve climate models
• Workshops (a few suggestions)
• Role of ocean in decadal variability and
  predictability of AMOC
• Physics of sea level observed and projected
  patterns and magnitudes
• Physics and biogeochemistry in a changing
  Southern Ocean
• WGOMD specific activities
• Sponsor/organize above workshops
• Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments
  (Drange on Thursday)
• Collaborate w/ WGCM to coordinate CMIP5 analyses
  with ocean focus

73
I12 Ocean and Coupled Reanalysis
74
Develop ocean and coupled synthesis/reanalysis
systems providing input to present and future
decadal prediction efforts

• Major uncertainties in predictions (SI and
  DEC/CEN) originate from uncertainties in the
  models initial condition and from errors in
  coupled models.
• Ocean syntheses are now being used to initialize
  coupled models. However, mismatch in model
  physics lead to initialization shocks. Errors in
  coupled models lead to fast degradation.
• To overcome those, the assimilation needs to be
  performed in the coupled model framework to
  obtain proper initial conditions.
• At the same time a coupled assimilation system
  will allow to reduce model errors through
  parameter optimization.

75
Develop ocean and coupled synthesis/reanalysis
systems providing input to present and future
decadal prediction efforts

• Some proto type coupled assimilation systems do
  exist (GFDL, K7). However, much needs to be done
  to understand and improve first encouraging
  results.
• New coupled assimilation systems need to be
  developed to
• Produce initial conditions.
• Improve model parameters.
• Among others, this is underway as part of THOR
  and national efforts.
• Requires close collaboration between GSOP, WGMD,
  WGSIP, WOAP, atmospheric reanalysis communities
  and others.
• Needs and already has close collaboration with
  IPCC.

76
Develop ocean and coupled synthesis/reanalysis
systems providing input to present and future
decadal prediction efforts

• Timeline
• Improvements of initialization ongoing
• Use of existing coupled system ongoing and
  expanding
• Development of coupled systems next 5 years.
• List the needs from national/regional programs
  Are needed.
• Needs skillful people! Computer resources!
• List the needs from CLIVAR (workshops, working
  group etc.)
• GSOP Meetings
• 1. Workshop on Initialization planned for late
  this year.
• Next Reanalysis Conference
• Workshop on Initialization and Coupled
  Assimilation early 2011

77
I13 build and sustain global ocean observing
system
78
CLIVAR IMPERATIVES-13Sustain Enhance Ocean
Observing System

• D.E.Harrison
• Chair, OOPC NOAA/PMEL
• Detlef Stammer
• Chair, GSOP Hamburg

79
SCIENCE IMPERATIVES

• We continue to learn the implications of ocean
  undersampling, the changing historical observing
  system and metadata limitations.
• A sustained system with global coverage is
  critical for ocean state assessment, climate
  research and climate forecasting.
• Even the agreed initial system, fully implemented
  wont meet all CLIVAR needs.
• Can we set priority goals? Can we estimate
  adequacy? FOR Sub-Argo? Carbon Inventory Change?
  Overturning Circulations? Southern Ocean?
  Marginal Ice Zones? Boundary Currents?
• What can we say about needs for forecasting and
  for evaluation of climate projections?

80
IMPLEMENTATION ISSUES

• Shortage of funding is primary limiting factor
  for present plan.
• Need improved advocacy by assessment, research
  and forecast communities.
• Need next-gen GCOS IP and CLIVAR priority
  science enhanced OS coordination more
  effective JCOMM and DM systems better routine
  info and delivery. Maybe more survey capability.
• Research priorities likely will set OS evolution.
  How long can we expect research agencies to fund
  the on-going parts of the system?
• Will the research community want to continue to
  do the needed work and share the observations?
• Need a strategy to sustain and evolve the system
  over multiple decades. What form do we think
  best for next phase(s)?

81
TIMELINE RESOURCES

• Satellite situation is promising for present
  ocean sensor suite. Cost issues? Next-gen costs?
• Initial in-situ system is do-able, but needs
  another USD50mil/yr. Sensor manufacturer issues?
• Enhanced system to cover all feasible physical
  variables over accessible ocean needs at least
  another USD50mil/yr and a decade of development.
• Cost of adding biogeochemical and ecosystem and
  living marine resources into an integrated system
  has not been scoped. Not feasible at present, but
  initial steps can be taken for USD20mil/yr
• Need more ocean and climate info from system
  what cost in people, years and budget?

82
I14 Interactions with the marine
biogeochemistry/ecology
83
Priorities Over the Next 5 years
Imperative 14
Develop and Strengthen Interactions with
Ocean Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem Communities

• Statement of the Problem
• Climate variability and change in the world
  oceans alter the structure and functioning of
  marine ecosystems, which in turn affects
  availability of ecological resources and
  benefits, changes the magnitude of some feedbacks
  between ecosystems and the climate system, and
  affects economic systems that depend on
  ecosystems.
• Richardson and Poloczanska (2008) state less
  than 11 of published papers in each of the
  fields of ecology, conservation biology, and
  biodiversity research deal with marine systems
  in part because of

• relatively low levels of funding
• a lower capacity to observe marine ecosystems
• multiple stressors stymie attempts to isolate a
  climate change signal

84
Develop and Strengthen Interactions with
Ocean Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem Communities

• The Challenge
• A grand challenge problem is to understand and be
  able to project the potential effects of global
  climate variability and change on marine
  ecosystems, the goods and services marine
  ecosystems provide, the drivers and consequences
  of human responses to marine ecosystem
  variability and change, and marine ecosystem
  links to the climate system.

• An Example
• In the regions of the worlds most productive
  coastal upwelling habitats, some evidence
  suggests that equatorward winds are
  strengthening, increasing the supply of nutrients
  to near-surface photosynthesizing organisms.
• Conversely, heating of the surface ocean through
  global warming should increase the density
  difference between surface and deeper waters,
  making vertical transport of nutrients more
  difficult.
• Which of these two competing mechanisms will
  dominate?

85
Develop and Strengthen Interactions with
Ocean Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem Communities

• Partnerships and Needs
• Develop and strengthen existing links with IGBP
  (IMBER/GLOBEC), carbon (IOCCP,GO_SHIP), fisheries
  (ICESPICES), and other regional efforts (e.g.,
  SIBER Sustained Indian Ocean Biogeochemical and
  Ecological Research Project)
• IMBER membership on CLIVAR panels, and vice versa
• Joint targeted workshops
• Develop ocean carbon observations and synthesis
  activities
• Development of Earth System Models that address
  physical, biogeochemical and marine ecosystem
  components and their interactions

86
I15 End user Interaction Application Operation
87
Imperative 15 To develop the interaction with
users of CLIVAR science and delivery of CLIVAR
outputs to operations

• Science
• Who are the users?
• Educators, climate scientists outside (and
  inside) CLIVAR, sectoral scientists, operational
  forecasters, the adaptation community, decision
  policy makers
• Addressing user needs involves having a
  conversation about their problem NOT their
  demands.
• What are the outputs?
• CMIP archive (and other MIPs) e.g. model
  runs/hindcasts
• Enormous contribution to IPCC
• Research (peer reviewed papers, methodologies,
  educational materials)
• Outputs will be used if they address a need, if
  they are easily available and if they are
  understandable.
• What is operations?
• Implicit delivery YES Explicit delivery ???

88
Imperative 15 To develop the interaction with
users of CLIVAR science and delivery of CLIVAR
outputs to operations

• Science
• Who are the users?
• Educators, climate scientists outside (and
  inside) CLIVAR, sectoral scientists, operational
  forecasters, the adaptation community, decision
  policy makers
• Addressing user needs involves having a
  conversation about their problem NOT their
  demands.
• What are the outputs?
• CMIP archive (and other MIPs) e.g. model
  runs/hindcasts
• Enormous contribution to IPCC
• Research (peer reviewed papers, methodologies,
  educational materials)
• Outputs will be used if they address a need, if
  they are easily available and if they are
  understandable.
• What is operations?
• Implicit delivery YES Explicit delivery ???

89
Imperative 15 To develop the interaction with
users of CLIVAR science and delivery of CLIVAR
outputs to operations

• Implementation
• Already natural implementation so what is
  question?
• How to speed implementation process? Or
• How to get more credit fo impact of CLIVAR
  science?
• Some ideas
• Programs like CPAPP (of US CLIVAR)
• IASCLIP Alliance (part of new program w/i
  VAMOS)
• Portal/clearing house for data (obs, model,
  fcst), also highlighting archiving CLIVAR
  research/accomplishments/contributions.

90
Imperative 15 To develop the interaction with
users of CLIVAR science and delivery of CLIVAR
outputs to operations

• Timeline Resources
• Timeline - ??? Ongoing
• Resources
• Communications Officer for CLIVAR
• Computing (Server, data storage??, programmer)
• Provide web ( meeting?) support for
  coordination of regional alliances within
  CLIVAR programs
• Add-on funding to support IPCC work, and other
  community service and outreach activities of high
  impact
• International CPAPP program (110k
  USD/yr/post-doc)

91
Themes we have used to organize the imperatives
around

• Anthropogenic Climate Change (I1 I2)
• Decadal Variability / Prediction (I3 I4 I5)
• Seasonal Prediction (I6 I7 I8)
• Monsoons (I9)
• Extremes (I10)
• Development of global observing system, modeling,
  reanalysis (I11 I12 I13 I14)
• Process Observations (I7)

92
Frontiers Beyond 2013

• Climate observations (CLIVAR emphasis on ocean
  obs)
• Long-term, continuous and well calibrated
  observations

• Attribution and prediction of regional weather
  and climate
• Decadal variability and prediction
• Science most directly connects to decision makers
  at the regional level

• Nonstationary climate variability and prediction
• How will natural modes of variability change
  implications for prediction

• Development of next generation Earth System
  Models
• Physical climate carbon cycle, dynamic
  vegetation, chemistry, land ice,
• ecosystem processes, human dimensions,
• More unified approaches to improve representation
  of physical processes
• (predictions across timescales share
  common processes and mechanisms)

• Integrated Earth System analysis
• Develop capability to integrate increasing range
  of observations in ESMs
• to produce internally consistent
  estimates of the state of the Earth system

• Geoengineering
• Major research effort needed to determine costs,
  risks and consequences