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Climate Change and Coastal

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... and tourist destinations = long-distance air travel ... Costa Rica: 1 million arrivals. Trinidad/ Tobago: 400,000 arrivals. Botswana: 900,000 arrivals ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Climate Change and Coastal


1
Climate Change and Coastal Small Island
Destinations
  • Susanne Becken John E. Hay
  • Lincoln University New Zealand
  • 15 March 2007, Paris

2
Overview
  • Introduction
  • Climate change impacts
  • Sea level rise
  • Coastal erosion
  • Tropical storms
  • Coral reefs
  • Water resources
  • Adaptation measures

3
Islands
  • Dependent on sea and vulnerable to changes in
    marine environment
  • Limited range of resources
  • Sensitive ecosystems and low carrying capacities,
    biodiversity hotspots
  • Specialised economies, small size, limited
    markets, isolated
  • Increasingly dependent on tourism

Biodiversity hot spot Mediterranean
4
Climate Change-Tourism Hotspots
Western Europe By end of century heatwaves as
warm and as dry as 2003 will occur every 2nd year
China Precipitation decreases by up to 20
Northeastern USA Decrease in winter snowfalls
and in extreme cold spells
Alpine Europe ¾ of glaciers lost by 2050
Southeastern USA, Mexico Caribbean More
destructive storms, especially until the 2030s
Northern and Eastern Mediterranean Increased
frequency of heat waves and drought
Islands in South Pacific Indian
Oceans Increased topical cyclone intensity ? 5
to 20 increase in maximum wind speeds
5
Sea level rise
6
Relative Sea Level Rise (RSLR) Global Sea
Level Rise Local EffectsGlobal
EustaticLocal Tectonic Compaction Post
Glacial Rebound Subsidence .
(1)Thermal expansion of water (2) Alpine
glaciers (3) Ice Sheets Greenland, and
Antarctica
7
Sea Level Rise over the last 24,000 years
8
Average Sea Level Rise over the last 120 years
9
Local Sea Level Rise
  • Projections of the regional distribution of sea
    level rise required for adaptation planning.

10
Rates of sea level rise
  • Sea level has changed over millions of years
    under natural forcing
  • Current rates of eustatic sea level rise are
    between 1.2 to 2.0 mm/yr
  • There is potential for catastrophic sea level
    rise likelihoods are uncertain at this stage

11
Instabilities in the Cryosphere
Antarctic Peninsula West Antarctic Ice Sheet
Greenland Ice Sheet Arctic Sea Ice
12
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13
Coastal Erosion
14
Coastal erosion causes and effects
Source Seekles, 2004
15
  • 71 millions inhabitants living in European
    coastal municipalities in 2001
  • 16 of EU25 population within 1 of the EU
    territory)
  • 500 billions euros of capital invested within 500
    meters from the coastline
  • Total coastline of the EU25 100925 km

16
Coastal zones and tourism
  • High concentration of tourism accommodation on
    the coast (e.g. 90 in Tunisia)
  • High density development
  • Modification of natural coastline

17
Examples from the Red Sea
Oberoi Sahl Hashish
Marriott Hurghada
Source Hassan, 2004
18
Tropical storms
19
Hurricane Ivan - 2004
  • A category 4 hurricane system reached Grenada
    in September 2004. Winds of over 140 mph, damage
  • 28 persons killed
  • 90 of hotel rooms damaged or destroyed,
    totalling US108 million
  • Heavy damage to eco-tourism and cultural
    heritage sites
  • 90 of housing stock damaged
  • Telecommunication losses equivalent to 13 of
    GDP
  • Losses in the agricultural sector equivalent to
    10 of GDP
  • Damage to electricity installations amounting to
    9 of GDP and
  • Overall damages estimated at US 824 million, or
    2x current GDP.

20
Hurricane Wilma, 2005Cozumel, Mexico
21
Cyclones 1990-1999, Fiji
22
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23
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24
Tourist safety
  • Implications for destination attractiveness
  • Perception is reality
  • Time of travel (seasons)
  • Insurance claims?

25
Coral reefs
26
Multiple stress factors
  • High nutrient contents
  • Turbidity and sedimentation
  • Fishing and physical damage
  • An increase in sea level and warmer water
    temperatures
  • Ocean acidity

gt As a stress response, corals expel the
symbiotic zooxanthellae from their tissues
27
Bleaching key points (Source M. Eakin NOAA
Coral Reef Watch)
  • Corals are mineral, animal, AND vegetable
  • Hot water bleaches corals
  • Corals may die after bleaching
  • Diseases follow many warming/bleaching stress
    events

28
Ocean Acidity
CO2(atm) CO2(aq) CO2 H2O H2CO3
(carbonic acid - lower pH, more acidic)
Impacts Calcifying organisms (corals, shellfish,
specific groups of phytoplankton) - increased
difficulty of forming CaCO3 shells reduced
ability of coral reefs to colonise new
areas Non-calcifying organisms - ????? Higher
trophic levels - ?????
29
From SCOR/IOC 2004
30
Source Riebesell et al. 2000
31
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32
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33
Source R. Buddemeier, LOICZ
34
Water availability
35
Water consumption by tourists
  • A tourist consumes around 550 L per day a
    Tunisian consumes only 25 L
  • In Tunisia, water can make up 15 of costs in a
    hotel
  • Tourism contributes about 1 - 6 to Tunisias
    water consumption
  • A golf course consumes 10.000 to 15.000 m3 of
    water per hectare and year

36
Water is a necessary resource
37
Adaptation measures
38
Risk-based Approach to Adaption
Vulnerability Assessment
Adaptation
39
Adaptation measures
Hard structures, e.g. Sea walls Example from
Italy - Ravenna
Sand deficit
Hotel built on the beach
Sand accumulation due to breakwaters
40
Example from Fiji Coral Coast resort
41
Beach nourishment
Example from Tunisia - Djerba
42
Infrastructure planning/ building
  • Coastal Highways Base design on predictions of
    local RSLR (difficult to retrofit), especially if
    evacuation route - Airport design to consider
    SLR, e.g. Federated States of Micronesia

43
Water management
  • Water conservation (e.g. irrigation)
  • Storage tanks, rainwater collectors
  • Flood management

44
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45
Protection of coral reefs
  • Control of pollution sewage treatment
  • No anchoring of boats
  • Dive instructor education
  • Tourist education and supervision
  • Coral replanting?

46
Implementation Principles
  • all activities to be undertaken in an inclusive,
    transparent and participatory manner
  • wherever possible, existing information and other
    resources are to be used
  • local experts should work along side and at times
    lead their international counterparts and
  • all outcomes should have high relevance to key
    stakeholders, they should add value to current
    and planned initiatives, and they should be
    sustainable.
  • the methods, tools and findings must be
    replicable and transferable

47
A few words about
  • Greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation

48
Simple geography
  • Source countries and tourist destinations gt
    long-distance air travelgt significant CO2
    emissions

49
What are the drivers of in-country emissions?
Example of transport and accommodation in New
Zealand and Fiji
50
Transport choices by tourists in Fiji
51
Conclusion
  • Islands and coastal areas are very vulnerable to
    climate change impacts
  • Tourism is extremely important to many island
    destinations and coastal zones
  • Adaptation measures can reduce the risk win-win
    measures should be implemented
  • Long-distance destinations also have to face
    their contribution to climate change

52
Thank you, any questions?
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