Climate Change and Coastal

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Climate Change and Coastal Small Island
Destinations

• Susanne Becken John E. Hay
• Lincoln University New Zealand
• 15 March 2007, Paris

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Overview

• Introduction
• Climate change impacts
• Sea level rise
• Coastal erosion
• Tropical storms
• Coral reefs
• Water resources
• Adaptation measures

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Islands

• Dependent on sea and vulnerable to changes in
  marine environment
• Limited range of resources
• Sensitive ecosystems and low carrying capacities,
  biodiversity hotspots
• Specialised economies, small size, limited
  markets, isolated
• Increasingly dependent on tourism

Biodiversity hot spot Mediterranean
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Climate Change-Tourism Hotspots
Western Europe By end of century heatwaves as
warm and as dry as 2003 will occur every 2nd year
China Precipitation decreases by up to 20
Northeastern USA Decrease in winter snowfalls
and in extreme cold spells
Alpine Europe ¾ of glaciers lost by 2050
Southeastern USA, Mexico Caribbean More
destructive storms, especially until the 2030s
Northern and Eastern Mediterranean Increased
frequency of heat waves and drought
Islands in South Pacific Indian
Oceans Increased topical cyclone intensity ? 5
to 20 increase in maximum wind speeds
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Sea level rise
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Relative Sea Level Rise (RSLR) Global Sea
Level Rise Local EffectsGlobal
EustaticLocal Tectonic Compaction Post
Glacial Rebound Subsidence .
(1)Thermal expansion of water (2) Alpine
glaciers (3) Ice Sheets Greenland, and
Antarctica
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Sea Level Rise over the last 24,000 years
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Average Sea Level Rise over the last 120 years
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Local Sea Level Rise

• Projections of the regional distribution of sea
  level rise required for adaptation planning.

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Rates of sea level rise

• Sea level has changed over millions of years
  under natural forcing
• Current rates of eustatic sea level rise are
  between 1.2 to 2.0 mm/yr
• There is potential for catastrophic sea level
  rise likelihoods are uncertain at this stage

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Instabilities in the Cryosphere
Antarctic Peninsula West Antarctic Ice Sheet
Greenland Ice Sheet Arctic Sea Ice
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Coastal Erosion
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Coastal erosion causes and effects
Source Seekles, 2004
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• 71 millions inhabitants living in European
  coastal municipalities in 2001
• 16 of EU25 population within 1 of the EU
  territory)
• 500 billions euros of capital invested within 500
  meters from the coastline
• Total coastline of the EU25 100925 km

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Coastal zones and tourism

• High concentration of tourism accommodation on
  the coast (e.g. 90 in Tunisia)
• High density development
• Modification of natural coastline

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Examples from the Red Sea
Oberoi Sahl Hashish
Marriott Hurghada
Source Hassan, 2004
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Tropical storms
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Hurricane Ivan - 2004

• A category 4 hurricane system reached Grenada
  in September 2004. Winds of over 140 mph, damage
• 28 persons killed
• 90 of hotel rooms damaged or destroyed,
  totalling US108 million
• Heavy damage to eco-tourism and cultural
  heritage sites
• 90 of housing stock damaged
• Telecommunication losses equivalent to 13 of
  GDP
• Losses in the agricultural sector equivalent to
  10 of GDP
• Damage to electricity installations amounting to
  9 of GDP and
• Overall damages estimated at US 824 million, or
  2x current GDP.

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Hurricane Wilma, 2005Cozumel, Mexico
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Cyclones 1990-1999, Fiji
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Tourist safety

• Implications for destination attractiveness
• Perception is reality
• Time of travel (seasons)
• Insurance claims?

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Coral reefs
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Multiple stress factors

• High nutrient contents
• Turbidity and sedimentation
• Fishing and physical damage
• An increase in sea level and warmer water
  temperatures
• Ocean acidity

gt As a stress response, corals expel the
symbiotic zooxanthellae from their tissues
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Bleaching key points (Source M. Eakin NOAA
Coral Reef Watch)

• Corals are mineral, animal, AND vegetable
• Hot water bleaches corals
• Corals may die after bleaching
• Diseases follow many warming/bleaching stress
  events

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Ocean Acidity
CO2(atm) CO2(aq) CO2 H2O H2CO3
(carbonic acid - lower pH, more acidic)
Impacts Calcifying organisms (corals, shellfish,
specific groups of phytoplankton) - increased
difficulty of forming CaCO3 shells reduced
ability of coral reefs to colonise new
areas Non-calcifying organisms - ????? Higher
trophic levels - ?????
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From SCOR/IOC 2004
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Source Riebesell et al. 2000
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Source R. Buddemeier, LOICZ
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Water availability
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Water consumption by tourists

• A tourist consumes around 550 L per day a
  Tunisian consumes only 25 L
• In Tunisia, water can make up 15 of costs in a
  hotel
• Tourism contributes about 1 - 6 to Tunisias
  water consumption
• A golf course consumes 10.000 to 15.000 m3 of
  water per hectare and year

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Water is a necessary resource
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Adaptation measures
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Risk-based Approach to Adaption
Vulnerability Assessment
Adaptation
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Adaptation measures
Hard structures, e.g. Sea walls Example from
Italy - Ravenna
Sand deficit
Hotel built on the beach
Sand accumulation due to breakwaters
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Example from Fiji Coral Coast resort
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Beach nourishment
Example from Tunisia - Djerba
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Infrastructure planning/ building

• Coastal Highways Base design on predictions of
  local RSLR (difficult to retrofit), especially if
  evacuation route - Airport design to consider
  SLR, e.g. Federated States of Micronesia

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Water management

• Water conservation (e.g. irrigation)
• Storage tanks, rainwater collectors
• Flood management

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Protection of coral reefs

• Control of pollution sewage treatment
• No anchoring of boats
• Dive instructor education
• Tourist education and supervision
• Coral replanting?

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Implementation Principles

• all activities to be undertaken in an inclusive,
  transparent and participatory manner
• wherever possible, existing information and other
  resources are to be used
• local experts should work along side and at times
  lead their international counterparts and
• all outcomes should have high relevance to key
  stakeholders, they should add value to current
  and planned initiatives, and they should be
  sustainable.
• the methods, tools and findings must be
  replicable and transferable

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A few words about

• Greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation

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Simple geography

• Source countries and tourist destinations gt
  long-distance air travelgt significant CO2
  emissions

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What are the drivers of in-country emissions?
Example of transport and accommodation in New
Zealand and Fiji
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Transport choices by tourists in Fiji
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Conclusion

• Islands and coastal areas are very vulnerable to
  climate change impacts
• Tourism is extremely important to many island
  destinations and coastal zones
• Adaptation measures can reduce the risk win-win
  measures should be implemented
• Long-distance destinations also have to face
  their contribution to climate change

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Thank you, any questions?