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Climate change

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Climate change Impacts and Strategies Roberto Ferrise, Giacomo Trombi, Marco Moriondo & Marco Bindi DiSAT University of Florence IFAD, Rome IFAD July ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Climate change


1
Climate change
  • Impacts and Strategies

Roberto Ferrise, Giacomo Trombi, Marco Moriondo
Marco Bindi DiSAT University of Florence IFAD,
Rome IFAD July, 24th 2008
2
Facing with Unprecedented Conditions
Temperature and CO2
World population
6.7 Billions
High Temp. and CO2
3
Future Climate Projections
Extreme Events
4
Extreme events impact on subsistence farming
  • In the short/medium term (to 2025), rural poor
    communities will be more strongly affected by the
    impact of extreme events than the impacts of
    changing means (Corbera et al.)
  • Expected impacts on farming systems include
  • Damage to crops at particular developmental
    stages
  • More difficult timing of agricultural operations
  • Damage to infrastructure
  • Reduced incentive to cultivate

5
Agro-ecosystem sensitivity to climate now
  • General Constraints
  • Incoming solar radiation
  • Temperature
  • Water and nutrient availability
  • Effect on agricultural crops
  • Incoming solar radiation regulates photosynthesis
    processes
  • Air temperature controls the duration of the
    growing period and other processes linked with
    the accumulation of dry matter (i.e. leaf area
    expansion, respiration)
  • Rainfall and soil water availability affects the
    duration of growth (i.e leaf area duration and
    photosynthetic efficiency)
  • Effect on animals (behaviour and production)
  • metabolic processes (direct effect)
  • forage quality and quantity (indirect effect)
  • Local Constraints
  • Heat stresses
  • Hails and storms
  • Floods

6
Agro-ecosystem sensitivity to Climate Change in
the future
Climate change is expected to affect the
agricultural production acting on the main
processes that regulate the different components
of the agro-ecosystem
7
1. Plants (I)
  • Enhanced CO2
  • Yield quantity Plants will be directly
    stimulated by enhanced concentrations of CO2
    leading
  • to larger and more vigorous plants
  • to higher yields of total dry matter (roots,
    shoots, leaves) and harvestable product

for a doubling CO2 Source Kindball, 1983
8
Plants (II)
  • Changes of climatic parameters
  • Temperature. Higher temperature will lead
  • yields reduction of determinate crops, i.e.
    cereals (shorter growing season)
  • yield increase in indeterminate crops, i.e.
    forage crops (longer growing season)
  • Rainfall. Lower rainfall in summer season will
    lead
  • water shortage that may be harmful especially for
    crops like wheat, sunflower, soybean

9
Combined effect of CC and enhanced CO2 on crop
production
  • Yields of C3 crops (vegetable, wheat and
    grapevine) generally increase
  • Yields of C4 crops and summer crops generally
    decrease
  • Inter-annual variability of crop yields increase
  • Yield quality may be affected

UKTR model, decade 66-75, CO2 617 (Source
Harrison and Butterfield, 1995)
10
2. Water availability
  • Demand for water for irrigation will rise
    increasing the competition between agriculture
    and urban as well as industrial users of water
  • Water tables will fall making the practice of
    irrigation more expensive
  • Peak irrigation demands will rise due to more
    severe heat waves
  • Risk of soils salinisation will be increase for
    higher evaporation

11
3. Soil fertility and erosion
  • Higher air temperatures
  • speed up the natural decomposition of soil
    organic matter increasing the rates of other soil
    processes (loss of fertility).
  • accelerate the cycling of carbon, nitrogen,
    phosphorus, potassium and sulphur, in the
    soil-plant-atmosphere system (enhancement of CO2
    and N2O greenhouse gas emissions).
  • increase the process of nitrogen fixation due to
    greater root development
  • Changes in rainfall
  • increase the vulnerability to wind erosion
    suppressing both root growth and decomposition of
    organic matter (lower summer precipitations)
  • increase soil erosion favouring run-off (higher
    frequency of high intensity precipitation events)

12
4. Pests and Diseases
  • Depending on the specific interaction between
    pests/diseases/weeds, and crops and climate there
    may be either an increase, a decrease or no
    change in their effects on agricultural crops.
  • e.g. Maize Streak Virus and Cassava Mosaic Virus
    in areas where rainfall decreases, and sorghum
    headsmut (a fungal disease) in areas where
    rainfall decreases.
  • Main drivers
  • higher temperature may be more favourable for the
    proliferation of insect pests (longer growing
    seasons, higher possibility to survive during
    winter time)
  • enhanced CO2 may affect insect pests through
    amount and quality of the host biomass (higher
    consumption rate of insect herbivores due to
    reduced leaf N)
  • altered wind patterns may change the spread of
    both wind-borne pests and of bacteria and fungi
  • increased frequency of floods may increase
    outbreaks of epizootic diseases (i.e. African
    Horse Sickness)

13
5. Weeds
  • The differential effects of CO2 and climate
    changes on crops and weeds will alter the
    weed-crop competitive interactions
  • higher CO2 concentration will stimulate
    photosynthesis in C3 species and increase water
    use efficiency in both C3 and C4 species
  • changes in temperature, precipitation, wind and
    air humidity may affect the effectiveness of
    herbicides

14
Prospected agro-ecosystem response to CC
The response of agricultural production will be
extremely variegated and very crop and site
dependent Crop productivity is projected to
increase slightly at mid- to high latitudes for
local mean temperature increases of up to
1-3C depending on the crop, and then decrease
beyond that in some regions. At lower
latitudes, especially seasonally dry and
tropical regions, crop productivity is projected
to decrease for even small local temperature
increases (1-2C), which would increase the risk
of hunger.
15
Prospected agro-ecosystem response to CC
Increases in the frequency of droughts and floods
are projected to affect local crop production
negatively, especially in subsistence sectors at
low latitudes. Following climate change, crops
are likely to shift their cultivation area to
meet their specific optimum climate conditions.
16
a. Cereals and seed crops
  • The cultivation area will shift toward higher
    latitudes or altitudes
  • Drier conditions may lead to lower yields
  • Warmer temperatures will shorten the length of
    growing season and reduce yields
  • Such an effect will be partially counteracted by
    the increase in CO2 concentration, which also
    will lead to increased symbiotic nitrogen
    fixation in pulses

17
b. Root and tuber crops
  • Due to their large below ground sinks for carbon
    are expected to show large response to rising CO2
  • Warming may reduce the growing season in some
    species (potato) and increase water requirements
    with consequences for yields
  • Other species (sugar beet) will benefit from both
    warming and the increase in CO2 concentrations

18
c. Pasture
  • Yield is strictly dependent on the projected
    rainfall pattern
  • Primary production may increase in temperate
    regions but decrease in semiarid and tropical
    regions
  • Species distribution and litter composition will
    change (high CO2 levels may favor C3 plants over
    C4 the opposite is expected under associated
    temperature increases)
  • Yields will differently affected by weeds, pests,
    nutrient, competition for resources.

19
Prospected impact on livestock systems
  • Climate change may influence livestock systems
    through different pathways
  • Changes in availability and prices of grains for
    feeding (cereals, pulses and other feed grains)
  • Changes in productivity of pastures and forage
    crops
  • Change in distribution of livestock diseases
  • Changes in animal health, growth, and
    reproduction (direct effects of weather and
    extreme events)
  • Climate change may also affect the turn-over and
    losses of nutrients from animal manure, both in
    houses, storages and in the field influencing the
    availability of manure in organic farms

20
Vulnerable areas a focus on developing countries
  • Developing countries will bear the brunt of
    climate change impacts.
  • Smallholder and subsistence agriculture are
    particularly vulnerable, but to understand the
    impact of CC on them it is necessary to
  • Recognize the complexity and high
    location-specificity of their production systems
  • Take into account non-climate stressors on rural
    livelihoods.
  • Consider the multiple-dimensions impact of
    climate change on rural farming systems and
    livelihoods.

21
Vulnerable areasLATIN AMERICA (I)
  • Significant loss of biodiversity (through
    species extinctions in many areas of tropical
    Latin America)
  • Reduction of tropical forest due to
  • Replacement by savannah (eastern Amazonas,
    central and South Mexico)
  • Increased susceptibility to fire occurrences
  • Land-use change (deforestation, agriculture
    expansion, financing large scale project such as
    dams, roads, etc)
  • Agricultural lands are very likely to be
    subjected to desertification and salinisation
  • Changes in precipitation patterns are projected
    to affect water availability for human
    consumption, agriculture and energy generation

22
Vulnerable areasLATIN AMERICA (II)
Great variability of yield projections (-30
Mexico to 5 in Argentina) Rice yields is
expected to decrease after the year 2010
Soybean will increase yields when CO2 effects
are considered A mean reduction of 10 in maize
yields could be expected by 2055 Land suitable
for growing coffee in Brazil and Mexico is
expected to be reduced Heat stress and more dry
soils may reduce yields to 1/3 in the tropics
23
Vulnerable areas ASIA
A northward shift of agricultural zones is likely
(Tserendash et al., 2005). Rice, maize and wheat
production will decline due to the increased
water stress, arising from increasing temperature
and reduction of rainy days   Yield of rice is
expected to decrease by 10 for every 1C
increase in growing season minimum temperature
(Peng et al., 2004) Aridity in Central and West
Asia may reduce growth of grasslands and
increases bareness of the ground surface
(Bou-Zeid and El-Fadel, 2002) Agricultural
irrigation demand in arid and semi-arid regions
of Asia is estimated to increase by at least 10
for an increase in temperature of 1C (Fischer et
al., 2002 Liu, 2002).
24
Vulnerable areas AFRICA
  • Africa is probably the most vulnerable continent
    to climate change and climate variability.
  • CC will cause some countries to become at risk of
    water stress exacerbating current water
    availability problems
  • CC will be likely to reduce the length of growing
    season as well as force large regions of marginal
    agriculture out of production.
  • Thus, agricultural production and food security
    (including access to food) are likely to be
    severely compromised
  • Hotspots for vulnerability in Africa are
    semiarid mixed rain-fed crop-livestock systems in
    the Sahel, arid and semiarid grazing systems in
    East Africa and mixed crop-livestock and highland
    perennial crop systems in the Great Lakes Region.
    (ILRI, 2006)

25
CC impact on smallholder and subsistence
agriculture
  • Negative impact on food and cash crops, due to
    the increased likelihood of crop failure
  • Impact on productivity and health of livestock,
    due to increased diseases and mortality of
    livestock and/or forced sales of livestock
  • Livelihood impacts including sale of other
    assets, indebtedness, out-migration, etc.
  • Increased water stress
  • Exacerbation of existing environmental problems
  • Non-agricultural impacts (human health, ability
    to provide labor for agriculture, tourism, etc.)

26
How to cope with Climate Change
  • Mitigation strategies of climate change (action
    on the causes)
  • Adaptation strategies to climate change
    (alleviate the effects)

Tubiello, 2007
27
Mitigation
denotes reduced emissions or enhanced removal
(positive mitigative effect)
28
Main adaptive strategies
  • Economic and agronomic adaptation strategies will
    be important to limit losses and exploit possible
    positive effects
  • The economic strategies are intended to render
    the agricultural costs of climate change small by
    comparison with the overall expansion of
    agricultural products
  • The agronomic strategies intend to offset either
    partially or completely the loss of productivity
    caused by climate change
  • Agronomic strategies
  • short-term adjustment
  • long-term adaptation

29
Main adaptive strategies Short Term (I)
  • Short-term adjustments may be considered as the
    first defence tools against climate change and
    aims to optimise production with minor system
    changes through
  • The management of cropping systems
  • The conservation of soil moisture

30
Main adaptive strategies Short Term (II)
  • The management of cropping systems considers
  • Changes in crop varieties (varieties with
    different thermal requirements, varieties given
    less variable yields)
  • Introduction of grater diversity of cultivars
  • Changes in agronomic practices (sowing/planting
    dates)
  • Changes in fertiliser and pesticide use
  • The conservation of soil moisture considers
  • The introduction of moisture conserving tillage
    methods (minimum tillage, conservation tillage,
    stubble mulching, etc.)
  • The management of irrigation (amount and
    efficiency)

31
Main adaptive strategies Long Term (I)
  • Long-term adaptation may overcome adversity
    caused by climate change through major structural
    system changes
  • Changes in land allocation to optimise or
    stabilise production (e.g. substituting crops
    with high inter-annual variability in production
    (wheat) with crops with lower productivity but
    more stable yields (pasture))
  • Development of designer-cultivars to adapt to
    climate change stresses (heat, water, pest and
    disease, etc.) much more rapidly than it possibly
    today
  • Crop substitution to conserve of soil moisture.
    (e.g. sorghum is more tolerant of hot and dry
    conditions than maize)

32
Main adaptive strategies Long Term (II)
  • Microclimate modification to improve water use
    efficiency in agriculture (e.g. windbreaks,
    inter-cropping, multi-cropping techniques)
  • Changes in nutrient management to reflect the
    modified growth and yield of crops, and also
    changes in the turn-over of nutrients in soils,
    including losses.
  • Changes in farming systems to maintain farms
    viable and competitive (e.g. conversion of
    specialised farms in mixed farms less sensitive
    to change in the environment)

33
Main adaptive strategies Spatial scale
classification
  • Farm level
  • Risk amelioration approaches (minimum disturbing
    techniques, planting times and density, etc)
  • More opportunistic crops (environment, climate,
    market)
  • Varieties with appropriate thermal time and
    vernalisation requirements, resistance to new
    pests, etc
  • Regional level
  • Integrate climate change in regional planning
    (avoid stresses for the environment caused by
    inappropriate actions)
  • National level
  • Building resilient agricultural systems, able to
    cope with CC
  • (transition, communication, diversifying,
    training, water, etc)

34
Coping with climate change in poor rural farming
systems
  • Small farm sizes, low technology, low
    capitalization and diverse non-climate stressor
    will tend to increase the vulnerability of poor
    rural farmers.
  • Smallholder and subsistence agriculture systems
    are already characterized by constant adaptation
    to climate variability, which is forming the
    basis of adaptation to climate change.
  • Typical resilience factors such as family labor,
    existing patterns of diversification away from
    agriculture and indigenous knowledge should not
    be underestimated as important elements of
    adaptation strategies.

35
Main implications for related sectors (I)
Food sector
Changes in diet patterns (e.g. food calorie
intake in China India)
Increased Population
Reduced water availability
Food production
Increased water need for industry households
Higher/Wider production needed
Increased water need for irrigation
36
Main implications for related sectors (II)
Forestry may be affected by drier and warmer
conditions in the Mediterranean region that could
lead to more favourable conditions for
agro-forestry Water resources may be interested
by warmer and drier conditions during summer that
will enhance the demand for freshwater,
especially for agriculture and human
consumption Insurance my be affected by an
altered frequency of extreme weather events
(e.g. storms, hails or floods) that will lead to
lower or higher damage costs Other sectors that
will contribute to rural income (e.g. ecotourism,
nature management, culture) may be affected
directly or indirectly by climate change.
37
Main uncertainties
  • Those related to the possibility to include in
    the assessments all the sources of uncertainties
    (e.g. climate scenario, crop experiments, models
    and spatialisation procedures)
  • Those linked with unpredictable directions of
    future social, economic, political and technical
    changes (e.g. questions regarding population and
    technological change are particularly relevant
    and should be explored with upper and lower
    bounds of possible projections)

38
Main unknowns (I)
  • The impact of climate change on secondary factors
    of agricultural production like soil, weeds,
    pests and diseases
  • The impact of increased surface receipts of UV-B
    radiation on future agricultural performance and
    agricultural response to climate change.
  • The response of the quality of agricultural
    products to atmospheric CO2 concentration
    increases, climate change and exposure to
    atmospheric pollutants

39
Main unknowns (II)
  • The impact of changes in mean climate and climate
    variability on mean yield and yield variability
  • The impact of increasing isolated and extreme
    events (e.g. hail, strong winds, flooding and
    extreme high temperatures) on agricultural
    production
  • The response of crop production and farming
    systems in sensitive or vulnerable regions (e.g.
    Asian and African countries on the Mediterranean
    shore)

40
Recommendations (I)
  • Encourage flexible land use (Resource land).
  • Encourage more prudent use of water (Resource
    water)
  • Improve the efficiency in food production and
    exploring new biological fuels and ways to store
    more carbon in trees and soils (Resource energy)
  • Assemble, preserve and characterise plant and
    animal genes and research on alternative crops
    and animals (Resource genetic diversity)

41
Recommendations (II)
  • Encourage research on adaptation, developing new
    farming systems and developing alternative foods
    (Resource research capacity)
  • Enhance national systems that disseminate
    information on agricultural research and
    technology, and encourages information exchange
    among farmers (Resource information systems)
  • Promote the development of agricultural weather
    information systems including the use of
    long-term weather forecasts (Resource
    management).
  • Integrate environmental, agricultural and
    cultural policies to preserve the heritage of
    rural environments (Resource culture).
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