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Understanding the Threats Discovering the Opportunities

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2080: Changes for the South West. Sea-level: 20-80cm rise. Summer: ... Loyalty/coupons - some type of offer. Reports, brochures, newsletters etc. Awards ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Understanding the Threats Discovering the Opportunities


1
(No Transcript)
2
Understanding the Threats Discovering the
Opportunities
  • What is Climate Change?
  • What does it mean for businesses in the South
    West?
  • What are our own impacts on Climate?
  • How might we go about addressing our impacts?
  • What opportunities does Climate Change offer our
    businesses?

3
  • Part of DEFRAs Climate Change Communications
    initiative

4
  • Being delivered through specialist regional
    environmental organisation Horizon South West

in partnership with the CIM and the South West
Climate Change Impacts Partnership
5
  • An opportunity for marketers in the South West
    to learn more about the effects of climate change
    and to contribute to the debate
  • and for environmental professionals to learn
    more about communicating climate change.

6
  • "This summer was the longest continuous period
    of hot weather experienced in this country since
    records began." 
  • "Figures based on the central England
    temperature records that date back 350 years,
    show that the average temperature from May to
    September was 16.2C.  This is two degrees higher
    than the average for this time of year.
  • Observer 15 October 2006

7
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8
  • We should be very, very scared of global warming
    . the scientific debate is over.
  • David Milliband

9
Stern conclusions
  • "Climate change is the greatest market failure
    the world has ever seen, and it interacts with
    other market imperfections.

10
Stern conclusions
  • Three elements of policy are required for an
    effective global response
  • price carbon through tax, trading or regulation
  • implement policy to support innovation and the
    deployment of low-carbon technologies
  • act to remove barriers to energy efficiency, and
    to inform, educate and persuade individuals about
    what they can do to respond to climate change.

11
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12
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13
Climate Change Sustainability
  • development that meets the needs of the present
    without compromising the ability of future
    generations to meet their own needs."
    Bruntland

14
The Triple Bottom Line
  • People
  • Planet
  • Prosperity

15
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16
  • An introduction to climate change and its impacts
    on the South West
  • Sarah Hendel-Blackford
  • SWCCIP Manager

17
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18
  • What is climate change?
  • Global changes, local impacts
  • SWCCIP work and future predictions

19
The Greenhouse Effect
CO2
H2O
N2O
H2O
CH4
33oC
20
Source Hadley Centre for Climate Predication and
Research
21
Natural Factors cannot explain recent warming
1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5
Observed Model simulation
Temperature change ºC
1850 1900
1950 2000
Source Hadley Centre for ClimatePredication and
Research
22
  • Recent warming can be simulated when manmade
    factors are included

1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5
Observed Model simulation
Temperature change ºC
1850 1900
1950 2000
Source Hadley Centre for Climate Predication and
Research
23
Global warming over next 40 years does not depend
on emissions scenarios
High emissions Medium-high Medium-low Low
emissions
Annual-mean temperature rise, deg C
Source Hadley Centre for Climate Predication and
Research
24
  • Is there a solution?
  • MITIGATE the cause
  • Reduce our greenhouse gas emissions, i.e. C02
    through energy efficiency, development of
    renewables
  • ADAPT to the effects
  • Prepare for challenges of climate change more
    extreme events, change business practice, learn
    from recent experience

25
  • Regional Response
  • SWCCIPs mission is to investigate, inform and
    advise on the impacts of climate change in SW
    England
  • Established 2001 Chaired by Environment Agency
    and Government Office South West, partnership
    between key regional stakeholders
  • Emphasis on Adaptation

26
2080 Changes for the South West
Sea-level 20-80cm
rise Summer Warmer 2 to
5.5ºC, drier by 25 to 55 Winter
Milder by 1.5 to 3.5ºC, wetter by 10 to
30, snowfall decrease by 70 to 90
Source WTI 2003, UKCIP
27
observations Medium-High emissions
Temperature change, C
European 2003 summer temperatures could be normal
by 2040s, cool by 2060s
Source Peter Stott, Hadley Centre
28
Questions
  • SWCCIP Sector Groups
  • Agriculture
  • Biodiversity

  • Housing Construction

29
  • SWCCIP Sector Groups
  • Local Government Tourism
    Utilities

30
  • If you think youre too small to make a
    difference, try going to bed with a mosquito
  • What you can do
  • Find out more www.oursouthwest.com/climate
  • Raise awareness and plan for future changes
  • Get involved! Case studies?
  • sarah.hendel-blackford_at_environment-agency.gov.uk

31
Reflection
32
Climate Change Farm
33
Climate Change Risk Assessment Tool
34
A Changing Climate for Business
Business Areas Climate Impacts Assessment Tool
(BACLIAT)
35
Business Areas Climate Impacts Assessment Tool
(BACLIAT)
  • Issues to consider
  • Time
  • Location
  • Sector
  • Business areas

36
Summary of expected climate changes in the UK
  • Annual / seasonal averages
  • Warmer, drier summers (spring, autumn too)
  • Milder, wetter winters
  • Rising sea levels
  • Extremes
  • More very hot days
  • More intense downpours of rain
  • Shorter return periods for high water levels at
    coast
  • Uncertain changes in storms possible increase
    in winter

37
Considering climate impacts on business areas
  • markets
  • logistics
  • process
  • people
  • premises
  • finance
  • management responses

climate change provides both challenge and
opportunity
38
Markets changing demand for goods and services
  • tourism - Med. is too hot so visit UK
  • food drink - summer preferences
  • al fresco pavement cafes 24/7
  • building design - passive cooling,
  • sustainable construction
  • environmental technology monitoring and
    technical fixes
  • cars etc cooling as standard
  • Health- new diseases, new technologies
  • Leisure - demand for parks, gardens, heritage
  • other global impacts on markets???

39
Logistics vulnerability of supply chain,
utilities, transport infrastructure
  • disruption of utilities - power, water, drainage
  • disruption of transport road ,rail, sea, air
  • vulnerability of raw materials production
  • arising from
  • flooding coastal, riverine, urban
  • drought,
  • wind and storm damage,
  • subsidence and heave,
  • landslip,
  • excess temperatures

just in time systems increase vulnerability for
manufacturing retail
extreme events will set most new performance
standards
40
Process impacts on production processes and
service delivery
  • Agriculture -crops
  • Manufacture -temperature
  • nature conservation -habitats
  • Heritage - buildings and gardens
  • food and drink - temp. control
  • Waste - health hazards
  • Construction - site conditions
  • Office - summer environment
  • Leisure - impacts on beaches, amenities

extreme events will set most new performance
standards
41
People implications for workforce, customers and
changing lifestyles
  • new residential locations preferred
  • trend to north
  • retreat from urban locations
  • changed travel to work patterns
  • more pedestrian/cycle journeys
  • poor working environment
  • external construction, agriculture
  • internal offices in summer
  • more complaint generally
  • siestas??
  • reputation as employer
  • attract and retain high quality staff

42
Premises impacts on building design,
construction, maintenance facilities management
  • all projects use future not historic climate data
  • building fabric and structure vulnerable to wind,
    rain, storm, subsidence
  • internal environment
  • less winter heating required
  • more summer cooling required but avoid air
    conditioning
  • existing buildings
  • retrofit represents a major challenge
  • especially low-energy cooling in housing
  • sustainable construction
  • link CC adaptation and mitigation agendas

very dependent on location too
43
Management implications financial implications
for investment, insurance, reputation

44
Workshop activity briefing
  • Select one business sector and identify the
    threats
  • and opportunities of climate impacts
  • on each business area below

Business sector Construction Manufacturing Servic
e sector Leisure/tourism Retail Food drink
Business areas Markets Logistics Process People P
remises

45
  • Summary of expected climate changes in the UK
  • Annual / seasonal averages
  • Warmer, drier summers (spring, autumn too)
  • Milder, wetter winters
  • Rising sea levels
  • Extremes
  • More very hot days
  • More intense downpours of rain
  • Shorter return periods for high water levels at
    coast
  • Uncertain changes in storms possible increase
    in winter

46
A Changing Climate for Business
Business Areas Climate Impacts Assessment Tool
(BACLIAT)
47
Reflection
48
Climate Change and Marketings 4 Ps
49
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50
The Two-Way Street
Marketing activities
Climate change
51
Marketing activities
Climate change
  • Markets
  • decreased or disappearing demand for present
    range of good services
  • competitors position enhanced by changing
    climate
  • new markets created for substitute or new
    products and services
  • Distribution channels
  • vulnerability of transport delivery systems
  • Product/service life cycle processes
    development
  • vulnerability or scarcity of supplies of raw
    materials
  • disruption to utilities
  • business disruption due to weather effects
  • People
  • new customer requirements expectations

52
Market Behaviour
  • Milder winters threaten Ribena production but
    longer summers are good news for strawberry
    growers
  • As temperatures rise, lemonade sales initially go
    up, but then fall again when it gets really
    hotLong range weather uncertainty affects
    production planning
  • Banana sales slump when it is hot and when it is
    cold
  • Long summers delay purchasing of autumn / winter
    clothing collections
  • Skiing days in Scotland down by 80
  • Too hot to shop

53
Marketing activities
Climate change
  • Product/service life cycles and development
  • raw material extraction
  • centralised production
  • manufacturing processes
  • packaging
  • usable life energy use
  • disposal
  • Business models
  • supply chains
  • Markets
  • national or global spread
  • Distribution channels
  • product/service miles
  • forms of distribution

54
Product
  • Ensuring new product development processes are
    informed by the companys climate change
    objectives.
  • Understanding the nature of customer interest in
    climate change issues, and the potential market
    for climate change -focused products and
    services.
  • Understanding the social and environmental
    impacts of your products throughout their
    life-cycle.
  • Identifying opportunities to generate products in
    partnership with not-for-profit organisations or
    government agencies.

55
Raw materials
  • Furniture built from tropical hardwoods vs
    sustainably managed forests
  • Use of virgin materials like aluminium which have
    higher embodied energy than recycled

56
Product/service provision
  • Carbon emissions from manufacturing processes
  • Energy use in service industries
  • keeping equipment switched on

57
Packaging
  • Fit for purpose?
  • Materials and weights

58
Place
  • Attracting customers through new distribution
    channels (e.g. Internet), which minimise social
    and environmental impacts.
  • Identifying markets in which your products will
    promote social inclusion and economic
    regeneration.

59
Product/service miles
  • Local seasonal produce vs green beans from Kenya
  • Video conferencing vs national and international
    travel for meetings

60
Price
  • Exploring the opportunity to link a proportion of
    your products prices to a relevant social or
    environmental cause (i.e. a cause-related
    marketing approach).
  • Identifying opportunities to increase margins
    and/or improve price competitiveness through
    environmental efficiencies.
  • Identifying any price premium that can be
    captured through the low carbon or sustainability
    attributes of your products.
  • Factoring the full social and environmental costs
    of your products into the price.

61
Carbon Labelling
  • White goods
  • Cars
  • Houses..
  • Whats next?

62
Promotion
  • Working closely with a variety of stakeholders to
    understand the perceptions and expectations of
    your business across society.
  • Emphasising the low carbon attributes of your
    products in promotions.
  • Examining the strength of existing claims
    regarding the social and environmental attributes
    of your products.
  • Ensuring marketing materials are in line with the
    social and environmental performance of your
    company.
  • Developing adequate control procedures to
    identify and inform consumers of possible product
    risks.

63
Mitigation of and adaptation to climate change
impacts
64
The Two-Way Street
Mitigation reducing the causes of
climate change
Marketing activities
Climate change
Adaptation responding to the
physical impacts
65
The Two-Way Street
Mitigate climate changing impacts
  • ....and explain it to your customers

Marketing activities
Climate change
Adapt opportunistically to climate change impacts
66
Communicating Climate Change
67
KNOW THINE ENEMY
Well, climate change is clearly a left wing
liberal conspiracy that will lead to floods of
asylum seekers pouring into Britain, causing
house prices to plummet and turning us all into
sodomites!
68
Carbon Trust
WE ARE ALL RESPONSIBLE!
69
(No Transcript)
70
  • Conclusions
  • Rapid evolution
  • More activism than formal stuff
  • Confusion over attitudes vs. behaviour
  • Attitudes are changing
  • NGOs and corporates still leading the way
  • Great changes afoot

71
Audiences
72
  • The Financial Times - 63 climate change articles
    and had an average Fear/Hope rating of 2.7
  • Independent - with 60 articles and a pessimistic
    outlook
  • The Sun (3 million readers)- just four (hugely
    negative) articles.

73
Fear is winning gt 59 of stories are negative
gt 15 of stories are balanced gt 25 of stories
are positive The Bells of New Orleans Toll
for the Whole Planet Independent on Sunday
74
  • People are fed up with the unfulfilled fear
    message

75
National Research
  • Most people in the UK think that climate change
  • is confusing they can't see how it relates to
    them
  • won't affect them personally
  • is a problem for the future, not now and
  • can't be affected by their individual actions,
    because the problem is so big.

76
National Research
How concerned are you about the impact of Climate
Change in the UK?
How much influence do you think can have on
limiting Climate Change?
77
THE BIG DIVIDE
Actions affecting lifestyle
Easy actions
Energy saving in home
Radical change of car use
Changing little habits
Reducing plane flights
78
Values Modes Who are we talking to?
  • 21 Settlers
  • Security/sustenance driven, backward looking,
    yesterday was better
  • 44 Prospectors
  • Esteem/outer-directed needs, in the now,
    fashion, status, success
  • 35 Pioneers
  • Inner-directed needs, ethical, self-exploration,
    look forwards, like change and discovery

79
Promoting Photovoltaics
  • Settlers
  • Prospectors
  • Pioneers

ACTION Someone else
SOLUTION Id rather not change
INCENTIVE Queen, council, neighbour
normal
We should organise
Add value, latest thing/trend
If fashionable
Good for planet Ethical imperative Lets do it!
Network of interesting people doing it for a good
cause
Ill do it myself
80
Audience rules
  • Target specific groups
  • Awareness, attitude change or behaviour change?
  • Understand them
  • market research

81
MESSAGES
82
  • Blowing Away Myths
  • Challenging habits of climate change
    communication
  • Dont rely on concern about childrens future or
    human survival instincts

83
  • Blowing Away Myths
  • Challenging habits of climate change
    communication
  • Dont create fear without agency

84
  • Blowing Away Myths
  • Challenging habits of climate change
    communication
  • Dont attack or criticise home or family

85
  • Blowing Away Myths
  • Forget the climate change detractors

86
  • Blowing Away Myths
  • There is no rational man

87
  • Blowing Away Myths
  • Information cant work alone

88
  • A New Way of Thinking
  • Do link climate change mitigation to positive
    desires/aspirations

89
  • A New Way of Thinking
  • Beware the impacts of cognitive dissonance

90
  • Linking Policy Communications
  • Everyone must use a clear and consistent
    explanation of climate change

Climate Change
GreenhouseEffect
Global Warming
91
Audience Rules Make climate change a home not
away issue
92
  • Create a trusted, credible, recognised voice on
    climate change

93
  • Raise the status of climate change mitigation
    behaviours

94
(No Transcript)
95
  • Message Rules
  • Set a central message
  • Tailor the message to different audiences
  • Engage your audiences emotions
  • 10 WORDS OR LESS

96
Channels
97
200 million on advertising Next to nothing
98
Channels
  • Direct marketing - direct mail/e-mail/cold
    calling
  • New technology - SMS etc
  • Education channels (schools, higher and further
    education)
  • Sponsorships
  • Advertising
  • Radio
  • TV
  • Press
  • Online
  • 6. Editorial / Press releases
  • Specialist and mainstream
  • 7. Viral (e-mails etc)
  • 8. Exhibitions
  • Celebrity endorsements
  • Online (web and web-log)
  • 11. PR Stunts
  • Business communications
  • Networks/forums/conferences
  • Entertainment media (product placement)
  • Road shows
  • Cultural events
  • Speeches
  • Consultations/ dialogue
  • Competitions
  • Anniversaries
  • TV programmes
  • Loyalty/coupons - some type of offer
  • Reports, brochures, newsletters etc
  • Awards

99
Free Channels
  • News, Features and Listings (print, radio,
    electronic)
  • Broadcast
  • Lifestyle
  • Local, community and regional media outlets

Paid Channels
  • Branding
  • Collateral
  • Advertising magazines, commercial TV, radio,
    local print
  • Sponsorships

100
Management and measurement
101
  • Government policy and communications on climate
    change must be consistent

102
  • The communications must be sustained over time

103
  • Better to light a candle than to curse the
    darkness
  • Old Chinese Proverb

104
Measurement
  • Qualitative research (focus groups)
  • Quantitative analysis (surveys, stats and press
    clipping)
  • Impact and influence (the objective!)
  • Interest and follow-up (questions)

105
If you remember
  • Be positive
  • Be targeted
  • Be creative

106
Effective Communication?What do you think?
107
(No Transcript)
108
(No Transcript)
109
(No Transcript)
110
  • Sir Terry Leahy pledged in January to
  • Carbon footprint Tesco products
  • Halve the price of energy-efficient light bulbs.
  • Reduce the carbon footprint of new existing
    stores and distribution centres by 50 by 2020.
  • Restrict air transport to less than 1 per cent of
    products and put an aeroplane symbol on all
    air-freighted products in store.

111
Marks Spencer launches "Plan A"- 200m
'eco-plan' CLIMATE CHANGE - making our
operations in UK and Republic of Ireland carbon
neutral by 2012.
112
(No Transcript)
113
Virgin profits to renewable energy
  Sir Richard Branson has pledged 3bn to fight
global warming, comprising all profits from his
travel firms including airline VirginAtlantic
and Virgin Trains over the next 10 years.
114
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115
(No Transcript)
116
Climate Care
117
Reflection
118
Any questions?
Carole Bond 01225 852 533 carole_at_carbon-data.co.
uk
  • Sandra Clarke 01451 832 206
  • sandra_at_smadar.co.uk

Sarah Hendel-Blackford 01392 442125 sarah.hendel-
blackford_at_environment-agency.gov.uk
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