The AIACC Project Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change in Multiple Regions

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The AIACC ProjectAssessments of Impacts and
Adaptations to Climate Change in Multiple Regions
Sectors

• AIACC Africa Region Meeting
• Hartebeespoortdam, South Africa
• 10 March 2003

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Variations of the Earths Surface Temperature
(IPCC, 2001)
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Developing countries are particularly vulnerable

• Significant exposures to potentially adverse
  impacts on crop yields, human health, water
• Large share of population earns livelihoods from
  climate sensitive activities (agriculture,
  livestock, fisheries)
• Large share of population lives in extreme
  poverty
• Low capacity to adapt due to low levels of human,
  financial, natural, physical and technological
  resources limited institutional capabilities

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Attention is focusing on adaptation

• Climate is changing and will continue to change
• Many are vulnerable
• Adaptation needs to go forward in hand with
  mitigation
• CoP decisions in Bonn and Marrkech
• Invitation to submit NAPAs
• Establishment of adaptation fund, other funds

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Developing sound adaptation strategies requires
good science

• Scientific investigation needed to answer
• Who are most vulnerable?
• What are the causes of their vulnerability?
• What are their options for adaptation and what
  are the consequences and costs of adaptation?
• Answering these questions can help to identify
  effective adaptation strategies

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AIACC Partners

• AIACC is a partnership among GEF, UNEP, START,
  TWAS, IPCC, and developing country institutions
• GEF provides the principal funding
• UNEP is the implementing agency
• START and TWAS are the executing agencies
• Participating institutions in developing
  countries have provided collateral funding
• Additional funding comes from USAID, USEPA, CIDA
  and World Bank

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AIACC Objectives

• Advance scientific understanding
• Of climate change I, A V in developing country
  regions.
• Build and enhance scientific technical capacity
  in developing countries
• To investigate I, A V and
• To participate in international scientific
  assessments (e.g. IPCC, MA)
• Contribute to National Communications, NAPAs and
  adaptation planning

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Means to achieving objectives

• Fund regional research projects
• Provide training and mentoring
• Engage stakeholders in the project
• Link with National Communications
• Establish a network of scientists and
  stakeholders to endure beyond the AIACC project

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AIACC funds regional research

• 150 proposals submitted
• Proposals were peer reviewed
• 24 Awards made in 2002 based on
• Scientific merit
• Regional significance
• Endorsed by GEF National Focal Points
• 100k-250k awarded to regional studies for 2-3
  years of research
• Regional studies add to scientific knowledge and
  capacity

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AIACC studies active in 46 developing countries

• Each study involves a team of scientists from
  multiple disciplines
• 235 scientists from developing countries
  participating as investigators
• 60 graduate and undergraduate students
• 40 scientists from developed countries
  collaborating

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AIACC provides training

• Global training workshops
• Regional workshops organized by regional study
  teams
• Additional small grants to AIACC participants
  (USAID supported)
• Visiting scientist exchanges
• Develop implement own training activities

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AIACC Provides Mentoring
Team of 10 AIACC mentors to assist throughout the
project

• Advice on methods, data, scenarios, models
• Troubleshooting
• Referrals to other sources of expertise
• Encourage/facilitate peer review publication
• Encourage/facilitate contributions to National
  Communications

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Stakeholders, Natl Communications, Networks

• AIACC engages stakeholders
• For input to objectives, approaches, evaluation
  of adaptations, review of outputs
• AIACC links with National Communications
• Each regional study making contact with relevant
  ministries, committees, persons
• AIACC builds networks
• Through participation in studies, workshops,
  discuss aiacc list-serve, and web-based
  database and information network

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Commonalities among regional studies

• Most are interested in
• Near-term consequences of climate change for
  people
• Interactions with other stresses or threats
• Human and social aspects of vulnerability
• Response strategies (i.e. adaptation) that would
  lessen risks from climate change AND address
  other more immediate threats
• Has led many AIACC studies to take a 2nd
  Generation approach to assessment

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2nd-Generation Assessments

• Emphasize understanding human side of
  vulnerabilities
• Who is vulnerable to harm? From what? Why?
• Explore multiple, interacting stresses
• Climate change, extreme weather, population
  growth, land use change, urbanization, land
  degradation . . .
• Evaluate responses, adaptations
• Focus responses on causes of vulnerability
• Engage stakeholders
• Enhance relevance, utility, credibility

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AIACC Regional Studies in N W Africa
Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia Agriculture Water Historical impacts of variability Crop modeling future impacts Irrigation water SD Adaptations
Sudan Human settlements Agriculture Vulnerability to climatic hazards Food security Environmental mgt adaptations
Nigeria, Niger Agriculture Crop modeling future impacts Seasonal forecasts
Nigeria, Mali Rural settlements Agriculture Vuln.of demog. groups to drought Impact thresholds, risk analysis Adaptations
West Africa (0-30oN, 15oW-20oE) Climate Diag. eval. of GCM projections Statistical dynamical downscaling for W. Africa
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AIACC Regional Studies in Eastern Southern
Africa
Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda Human Health Sensitivities of malaria and cholera incidence to climate model project future risks Evaluate adaptive responses
South Africa Biodiversity Predictive models of plant animal responses to climate Adaptation to conserve biodiversity
Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Tanzania Agriculture Water Land-use Integrated assessment (MIMOSA) Primary focus on land-use
Botswana Agriculture Water Land-use Present water, food conditions Int. Assess. of future impacts Adaptations
South Africa, Gambia Water Agriculture Benefit-cost analysis of adaptations
Sub-Saharan Africa Climate Diag. eval. of GCM projections Stat. dyn. downscaling for sub-Saharan Africa
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AIACC Regional Studies in Small Islands
Caribbean Human Health Investigate/model health responses to climate (dengue) Future health impacts of climate change Adaptations
Fiji, Cook Islands Water Coastal infrastructure Natural resources IAM, extended to include human dimensions Adaptations
Seychelles Comoros Tourism Natural resources Direct impacts of climate change SLR on tourism Indirect impacts on tourism from effects on natural resources Adaptations
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Anticipated outcomes

• Advance science
• Publication of peer reviewed papers, thematic
  reports that expand literature on developing
  country I, A and V
• Citation of AIACC findings in IPCC MA reports
• Build capacity
• Participants continue their research and link to
  policy
• Increased numbers of developing country
  researchers engaged in IPCC, global change
  research
• Contribute to National Communications
• AIACC participants collaborate in preparation of
  Natl Communications
• Use of AIACC findings in National Communicaitons