The First State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR) U.S. Climate Change Science Program Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.2

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The First State of the Carbon Cycle Report
(SOCCR)U.S. Climate Change Science Program
Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.2
U.S. North American Carbon Program
(NACP) Investigators Meeting Colorado Springs,
CO January 22, 2007 Anthony King Oak Ridge
National Laboratory For the SOCCR Coordinating
Team
Anthony King (ORNL) Lisa Dilling (U.Colo/NCAR)
David Fairman (CBI) Richard Skee Houghton
(WHRC) Gregg Marland (ORNL) Adam Rose (USC) Tom
Wilbanks (ORNL) Greg Zimmerman (ORNL)
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The SOCCR community

• Authors
• Stakeholders
• SOCCR Coordinating Team
• SOCCR Agency Executive Committee
• Climate Change Science Program

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Outline of the Presentation

• Purpose of the SOCCR
• Process of producing the SOCCR
• Product
• Structure of the report
• Key findings and highlights
• Data gaps and uncertainties
• Prospectus vis-à-vis the NACP

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The purpose of the SOCCR is

• To summarize scientific knowledge about carbon
  cycle properties and changes for North America.
• To provide scientific information for decision
  support and policy formulation concerning carbon.

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SOCCR Science Questions

• What are the primary carbon sources and sinks in
  North America, and how are they changing?
• How do North American carbon sources and sinks
  relate to the global carbon cycle?
• How are North American carbon sources and sinks
  affected by present and anticipated future
  changes in human activities and climate?
• What are the primary uncertainties in the North
  American carbon budget, and what factors affect
  carbon budget uncertainties and information
  quality?
• What scientific information is most needed to
  support carbon management and climate policy
  decisions?

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SOCCR Approach

• Integrated content not just natural carbon
  cycle
• Community document- written by leading scientific
  experts (90 or more involved)
• Includes authors from Mexico and Canada (North
  American focus)
• Stakeholders incorporated very early on and at
  points where input can make a difference
• Provide opportunity for direct author/stakeholder
  interaction but responsibility for content lies
  with authors
• Document intended for decision maker audience
  (thinking beyond technical accuracy to
  presentation and style)

http//cdiac.ornl.gov/SOCCR/
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SOCCR SAP 2.2 Milestones

• 2004
• Sept.-October 2004 Initial Stakeholder
  Assessment, review of chapter outline
• November 15-16, 2004 First stakeholder workshop,
  Washington D.C.
• November-December 2004 revised outline posted
  for comment on SOCCR website
• 2005
• January 2005 draft Prospectus submitted to CCSP
• February 2March 7, 2005 public comment on draft
  CCSP 2.2 Prospectus
• May 16-17, 2005 First lead chapter authors
  workshop, Atlanta GA
• October 2005 Zero-order draft completed
• October 24-25, 2005 Joint stakeholder and author
  workshop, Arlington VA
• May 2006 Draft 1 submitted for technical review
• 2006
• September 1, 2006 Delivered revised Draft 2 for
  45-day public review
• October 10, 2006 Third stakeholder workshop,
  Washington DC
• November 3, 2006 Public comment period closes
• November-December 2006 Authors revision and
  response to public comments
• 2007

http//cdiac.ornl.gov/SOCCR/
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Stakeholder Assessment

• Methodology
• Interviews with 30 stakeholders, chosen from
  previous involvement, in Oct. 2004
• Provided draft SOCCR outline before interviews
• Drafted not-for-attribution report, circulated to
  interviewees for comment, revised and finalized
• Feedback on SOCCR content, process and product
• Science how carbon cycle works, main sources and
  sinks, areas of uncertainty (esp. sinks)
• Policy assess mitigation options, esp. in energy
  sector, land management
• SOCCR process and product critical need for
  objectivity (candidate authors), relevance,
  accessibility for non-scientist stakeholders

http//cdiac.ornl.gov/SOCCR/
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Workshop Feedback

• First workshop Major revision of outline
• Feedback on making report relevant to
  stakeholders, emphasize important components,
  have both synthetic and sector-specific
  information, questions for part I
• Second workshop Responding to 0th draft
• Feedback on reducing length, improving clarity,
  develop common elements (parts II and III)
• Third workshop Responding to public (2nd) draft
• Feedback on process, stakeholder involvement,
  content discussion especially of chapter 4,
  discussion of dissemination strategies

http//cdiac.ornl.gov/SOCCR/
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The Design of the SOCCR
The design of the SOCCR as a document started
with an outline in the original proposal but
evolved significantly based on input from the
First Stakeholders Workshop in November 2004, and
the First Authors workshop in May 2005.
There are three parts to the SOCCR, prefaced by
an Executive Summary
Part I The Carbon Cycle in North America Part
II Energy, Industry and Waste Management
Activities Part III Land and Water Systems
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Part I The Carbon Cycle in North America

• Chapter 1. What is the Carbon Cycle and Why Do
  We Care?
• SOCCR Coordinating Team
• Chapter 2. The Carbon Cycle of North America in a
  Global Context
• Chris Field (Coordinating Lead), Burke Hales,
  Jorge Sarmiento
• Chapter 3. The North American Carbon Budget Past
  and Present?
• Steve Pacala (Coordinating Lead), Rich Birdsey,
  Scott Bridgham, Rich Conant, Ken Davis, Burke
  Hales, Richard Houghton, Jen Jenkins, Mark
  Johnston, Gregg Marland, and Keith Paustian
• Chapter 4. What are the Options That Could
  Significantly Affect the Carbon Cycle?
• Erik Haites (Coordinating Lead), Ken Caldeira,
  Patricia Romero Lankao, Adam Rose, Tom Wilbanks
• Chapter 5. How Can We Improve the Usefulness of
  Carbon Science for Decision-Making?
• Lisa Dilling and Ron Mitchell (Coordinating
  Leads), David Fairman

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Part II Energy, Industry and Waste Management
Activities

• Overview of Part II Energy, Industry, and Waste
  Management Activities An Introduction to CO2
  Emissions from Fossil Fuels
• -- Gregg Marland
• Chapter 6 Energy Extraction and Conversion
• -- Thomas Wilbanks
• Chapter 7 Transportation
• -- David Greene
• Chapter 8 Industry and Waste Management
• -- John Nyboer
• Chapter 9 Buildings
• -- James McMahon

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Part III Land and Water Systems

• Overview of Part III The Carbon Cycle in Land
  and Water Systems
• Richard (Skee) Houghton
• Chapter 10. Agriculture and Grazing Lands
• Rich Conant and Keith Paustian
• Chapter 11. North American Forests
• Richard Birdsey, Jennifer Jenkins, Mark Johnston
  and Elisabeth Huber-Sannwald
• Chapter 12. Carbon Cycle in the Permafrost Region
  of North America
• Charles Tarnocai
• Chapter 13. Wetlands
• Scott Bridgham
• Chapter 14. Human Settlements and the North
  American Carbon Cycle
• Diane Pataki
• Chapter 15. Coastal Oceans

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Some key findings of the current draft of the
SOCCR CCSP SAP 2.2

• North American carbon budget
• Options to manage carbon

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North America is currently a net source of CO2
(1336 334 Mt C yr-1), with 30 of fossil fuel
emissions (1856 ? 464 Mt C yr-1 in 2003) offset
by a net terrestrial sink of 520 ? 260 Mt C yr-1.
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Key findings of the draft SOCCR CCSP SAP 2.2

• Energy and industrial fossil-fuel emissions are
  dominated by emissions from the United States
  (85 in 2003 Canada 9 and Mexico 6).
• The terrestrial sink is primarily associated with
  regrowing forests in the United States (?50),
  with woody encroachment the next largest (?20),
  but highly uncertain contributor.
• The future of the North American terrestrial sink
  is highly uncertain, with the expectation that
  the forest regrowth contribution will decline
  clouded by uncertainty in ecosystem response to
  CO2 and climate.

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Key findings of the draft SOCCR CCSP SAP 2.2

• Addressing imbalances in North American carbon
  budget requires options focused on reducing
  fossil fuel emissions.
• Potential for options focused on enhancing sinks
  is likely insufficient to deal with magnitude of
  current imbalance.
• Options include efficiency improvement, fuel
  switching, and technologies such as capture and
  storage.
• Mechanisms likely a mix of voluntary and
  policy-driven options, locally, regionally,
  nationally, and internationally.
• Demand for information by decision makers will
  require new thinking and mechanisms in carbon
  cycle research.

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North America is currently a net source of CO2
(1336 334 Mt C yr-1), with 30 of fossil
fuel emissions (1856 ? 464 Mt C yr-1 in 2003)
offset by a net terrestrial sink of 520 ? 260 Mt
C yr-1.
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Future sinks ?
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Key findings of the draft SOCCR CCSP SAP 2.2

• The terrestrial sink is primarily associated with
  regrowing forests in the United States (?50),
  with woody encroachment the next largest (?20),
  but highly uncertain contributor.
• The future of the North American terrestrial sink
  is highly uncertain, with the expectation that
  the forest regrowth contribution will decline
  clouded by uncertainty in ecosystem response to
  CO2 and climate.

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Prospectus for synthesis and assessment
vis-à-vis the NACP

• The first SOCCR is pre-NACP
• information
• Findings
• The SOCCR could provide a framework for a
  post-NACP re-assessment
• SOCCR CCSP SAP 2.2 will be released near the time
  of the IPCC Fourth assessment.
• The assessments for North America need to be
  compared.

MODIS annual NPP averaged over 2000-2005.
Courtesy of Steve Running, U. Montana.
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The First State of the Carbon Cycle Report
(SOCCR) The North American Carbon Budget and
Implications for the Global Carbon Cycle U.S.
Climate Change Science Program Synthesis and
Assessment Product 2.2 currently in Draft
2 responding to public review scheduled for
release March 2007
cdiac.ornl.gov/SOCCR/
www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap2-2/default.
htm/