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PowerPoint Presentation - Global Change Curricula and Programs at Iowa State University

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Title: PowerPoint Presentation - Global Change Curricula and Programs at Iowa State University


1
Image courtesy of NASA/GSFC
2
Global Environmental Change Technology and the
Future of Planet Earth
  • Eugene S. Takle, PhD, CCM
  • Director, Climate Science Initiative
  • Professor of Atmospheric Science
  • Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences
  • Professor of Agricultural Meteorology
  • Department of Agronomy
  • Iowa State University
  • Ames, Iowa 50011
  • gstakle_at_iastate.edu

Technology, Globalization, and Culture ME/WLC
484 Ames Iowa 2 September 2008
3
Outline
  • Changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide
  • Radiative forcing
  • Simulations of global climate and future climate
    change
  • Climate change for the US Midwest
  • Climate change and global food production

Except where noted as personal views or from the
ISU Global Change course, all materials presented
herein are from peer-reviewed scientific reports
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Pattern repeats about every 100,000 years
Natural cycles
6
IPCC Third Assessment Report
7
Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
2008 380 ppm
8
Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
2050 550 ppm
9
Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
Business as Usual 950 ppm
10
Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
Business as Usual 950 ppm
?
11
http//www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006
/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif
12
Source IPCC, 2001 Climate Change 2001 The
Scientific Basis
13
Source IPCC, 2001 Climate Change 2001 The
Scientific Basis
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IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers
16
El Chichon (1982)
Agung, 1963
Mt. Pinatubo (1991)
At present trends the imbalance 1 Watt/m2 in
2018
Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004
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Arctic Sea-Ice Extent Observed and Projected by
Global Climate Models
2005
Aug 2008
2007
Meehl, G.A.,et al, 2007 Global Climate
Projections. In Climate Change 2007 The
Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working
Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M.
Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller
(eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,
United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Chapter
10, p. 771
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Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004
25
http//www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006
/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif
26
Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global
temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey
bands indicate 68 and 95 range derived from
multiple simulations.
27
Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global
temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey
bands indicate 68 and 95 range derived from
multiple simulations.
Natural cycles
28
Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global
temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey
bands indicate 68 and 95 range derived from
multiple simulations.
Not Natural
29
Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global
temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey
bands indicate 68 and 95 range derived from
multiple simulations.
Highly Likely Not Natural
Not Natural
30
Source Jerry Meehl, National Center for
Atmospheric Research
31
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers
32
Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers
33
Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
The planet is committed to a warming over the
next 50 years regardless of political decisions
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers
34
Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
Mitigation Possible
Adaptation Necessary
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers
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Projected changes in precipitation between
1980-1999 and 2080-2099 for an energy-conserving
scenario of greenhouse gas emissions
IPCC 2007
38
Precipitation minus Evaporation for Western US
(25N-40N, 95W-125 W)
R. Seager, et al., 2007. Model Projections of an
Imminent Transition to a More Arid Climate in
Southwestern North America. Science, Vol. 316.
no. 5828, pp. 1181 - 1184
39
Precipitation minus Evaporation for Western
US (25N-40N, 95W-125 W)
R. Seager, et al.,2007. Model Projections of an
Imminent Transition to a More Arid Climate in
Southwestern North America. Science, Vol. 316.
no. 5828, pp. 1181 - 1184
40
Precipitation minus Evaporation for Western
US (25N-40N, 95W-125 W)
Colorado River Compact established, 1922
R. Seager, et al.,2007. Model Projections of an
Imminent Transition to a More Arid Climate in
Southwestern North America. Science, Vol. 316.
no. 5828, pp. 1181 - 1184
41
Projected Changes for the Climate of the
Midwest Temperature
  • Longer frost-free period (high)
  • Higher average winter temperatures (high)
  • Fewer extreme cold temperatures in winter (high)
  • Fewer extreme high temperatures in summer in
    short term but more in long term (medium)
  • Higher nighttime temperatures both summer and
    winter (high)
  • More freeze-thaw cycles (high)
  • Increased temperature variability (high)

Estimated from IPCC reports
Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by
models No current trend but model suggestion or
current trend but model inconclusive
Estimated from IPCC reports
42
Projected Changes for the Climate of the
Midwest Precipitation
  • More (10) precipitation annually (medium)
  • Change in seasonality Most of the increase
    will come in the first half of the year (wetter
    springs, drier summers) (high)
  • More water-logging of soils (medium)
  • More variability of summer precipitation (high)
  • More intense rain events and hence more runoff
    (high)
  • Higher episodic streamflow (medium)
  • Longer periods without rain (medium)
  • Higher absolute humidity (high)
  • Stronger storm systems (medium)
  • More winter soil moisture recharge (medium)
  • Snowfall increases (late winter) in short term
    but decreases in the
    long run (medium)

Estimated from IPCC reports
Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by
models No current trend but model suggestion or
current trend but model inconclusive
43
Projected Changes for the Climate of the
Midwest Other
  • Reduced wind speeds (high)
  • Reduced solar radiation (medium)
  • Increased tropospheric ozone (high)
  • Accelerated loss of soil carbon (high)
  • Phenological stages are shortened high)
  • Weeds grow more rapidly under elevated
    atmospheric CO2 (high)
  • Weeds migrate northward and are less sensitive to
    herbicides (high)
  • Plants have increased water used efficiency (high)

Estimated from IPCC and CCSP reports
Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by
models No current trend but model suggestion or
current trend but model inconclusive
44
Observed summer (June-July-August) daily mean
temperature changes (K) between 1976-2000
(Adapted from Folland et al. 2001).
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Suitability Index for Rainfed Agriculture
IPCC 2007
51
Suitability Index for Rainfed Agriculture
IPCC 2007
52
Projected changes in precipitation between
1980-1999 and 2080-2099 for an energy-conserving
scenario of greenhouse gas emissions
IPCC 2007
53
Insured Crop Loss for Corn in Iowa
  Factor Percent Cold Winter 0.9 Decline
in Price 6.6 Drought 35.5 Excess
Moist/Precip/Rain 38.4 Flood
2.6 Freeze 0.1 Hail
7.2 Heat 1.2 Hot Wind
0.0 Mycotoxin (Aflatoxin) 1.0 Plant
Disease 0.3 Winds/Excess Wind
5.0 Other 1.1 Total 100.0
Milliman, Inc., based on 1995-2006 data from the
Risk Management Agency Website
(http//www.rma.usda.gov/)
54
Insured Crop Loss for Soybeans in Iowa
Factor Percent Cold Winter 0.6 Decline
in Price 4.8 Drought 56.8 Excess
Moist/Precip/Rain 20.2 Flood
1.4 Freeze 0.1 Hail 13.0 Heat
0.9 Hot Wind 0.0 Mycotoxin
(Aflatoxin) 0.0 Plant Disease
1.1 Winds/Excess Wind 0.2 Other
1.1 Total 100.0
Milliman, Inc., based on 1995-2006 data from the
Risk Management Agency Website
(http//www.rma.usda.gov/)
55
US Corn Yields (Bushels/Acre)
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Grain and oilseed consumption has exceeded
production 7 of last 8 years
Tostle, Ronald, 2008 Global Agricultural Supply
and Demand Factors Contributing to the Recent
Increase in Food Commodity Prices WRS-0801 May
2008. USDA/ERS
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Lingering Questions Relating to Food Production
and Climate Change
  • What regions now suitable for rainfed agriculture
    will become marginally suitable or unsuitable due
    to climate change?
  • What regions now unsuitable for rainfed
    agriculture might become suitable?

63
Lingering Questions Relating to Food Production
and Climate Change
  • By how much will technological advances reduce
    the impact of climate change on agriculture?
  • Continued advances in drought tolerance for corn
  • Drought or excess-water tolerance for all crops
  • Availability (e.g., water), sustainability and
    political acceptance of expanded irrigation for
    agriculture
  • What dietary changes will occur that will
    impact demand?
  • Relative amount of meat in diets?
  • New crops?
  • More locally produced food?

64
Summary
  • Global temperature change of the last 30 years
    cannot be explained on the basis of natural
    radiative forcing alone. Only when anthropogenic
    effects are considered can we explain recent
    temperature trends
  • Mitigation efforts, although urgently needed,
    will have little effect on global warming until
    the latter half of the
    21st century
  • Adaptation strategies should be
    developed for the next 50 years
  • Impact of climate change on global food
    production is yet to be evaluated with the
    most recent generation of global
    climate models

65
For More Information
  • For peer-reviewed evidence supporting everything
    you have seen in this presentation, see my online
    Global Change course
  • http//www.meteor.iastate.edu/gccourse
  • Contact me directly
  • gstakle_at_iastate.edu
  • Current research on regional climate and climate
    change is being conducted at Iowa State Unversity
    under the Regional Climate Modeling Laboratory
  • http//rcmlab.agron.iastate.edu/
  • North American Regional Climate Change Assessment
    Program
  • http//www.narccap.ucar.edu/
  • For this and other climate change presentations
    see my personal
    website
  • http//www.meteor.iastate.edu/faculty/takle/

Or just Google Eugene Takle
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http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ImageKatrina_vs_sea_
surface_height.JPG
68
Tropical Atlantic Ocean
Hurricane Power Dissipation Index (PDI)
Sea-surface temperature
V
V
  • V

Emanual, Kerry, 2005 Increasing destructiveness
of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years.
Nature, 436, 686-688.
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