Quantification of Uncertainty of Regional Climate Change

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ISU Climate Science Initiative
Meeting objectives To assess the level of
faculty interest in research relating to climate
science at ISU To identify opportunities to
build partnerships at ISU between climate science
and programs in bioeconomy, plant sciences,
cyberinfrastructure, and climate-sensitive areas
of research in agriculture, water resources,
natural systems, and engineering for establishing
ISU as a regional/national leader in climate
science and impacts of climate change.
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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

• Established in 1988 by
• World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
• United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
• Supports the UN Framework Convention on Climate
  Change (UNFCCC)

First Assessment Report - 1990 Second Assessment
Report - 1995 Third Assessment Report (TAR) -
2001 Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) - 2007 Plus
special reports, technical papers, methodology
reports and supporting material.
(source www.ipcc.ch)
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Understanding and Attributing Climate Change

• Continental warming
• likely shows a significant anthropogenic
  contribution over the past 50 years

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U.S. Climate Change Science Program

• Mission Facilitate the creation and application
  of knowledge of the Earths global environment
  through research, observations, decision support,
  and communication.

Integrates climate research of 13 federal agencies
Primary Products 21 Synthesis Assessment
Reports

• Improve knowledge of the Earth's past and present
  climate and environment
• Improve quantification of the forces bringing
  about climate changes
• Reduce uncertainty in projections of future
  climate change
• Understand the sensitivity and adaptability to
  climate change
• Explore the limits of evolving knowledge to
  manage risks and opportunities

(source www.climatescience.gov/)
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What is a climate model?
(IPCC TAR, Ch. 1)
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How can a numerical model represent all of this?

• Options
• Global model
• resolve continental scales
• simulate 10s-100s yr
• Regional model
• resolve broad human scales (river basins,
  agricultural zones, etc.)
• simulate 10s-100s yr

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Example Regional Model Domain
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North American Regional Climate Change Assessment
Program (NARCCAP)

• An international project to evaluate regional
  climate change for North America.
• Uses nested regional climate models fine-scale
  models that use results of coarse global models
  as input.
• How does uncertainty propagate from global models
  through regional models?
• Develop multiple realizations of regional climate
  change for use in climate change impact
  assessment (patterned on global model data for
  the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report).

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North America Regional Climate Change Assessment
Program Participants

• Raymond Arritt, David Flory, William Gutowski,
  Gene Takle, Iowa State University, USA
• Richard Jones, W. Moufouma-Okia, Hadley Centre,
  UK
• Daniel Caya, Sébastien Biner, OURANOS, Canada
• David Bader, Phil Duffy, Lawrence Livermore
  National Laboratories, USA
• Filippo Giorgi, Abdus Salam ICTP, Italy
• Isaac Held, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics
  Laboratory, USA
• René Laprise, Univ. de Québec à Montréal, Canada
• Ruby Leung, Y. Qian, Pacific Northwest National
  Laboratories, USA
• Linda Mearns, Don Middleton, Doug Nychka National
  Center for Atmospheric Research, USA
• Ana Nunes, John Roads, Scripps Institution of
  Oceanography, USA
• Steve Sain, Univ. of Colorado at Denver, USA
• Lisa Sloan, Mark Snyder, Univ. of California at
  Santa Cruz, USA

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NARCCAP PLAN
Current climate or Scenario
global climate models
1971-2000 current
2041-2070 future
regional climate models
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Seasonal Forecasting (MRED project)

• Weather forecasting is short-term (few days to 2
  weeks)
• Climate projection is for decades
• Seasonal forecasting has had less attention,
  despite practical needs
• agriculture, construction and repair,
  transportation, etc.

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Seasonal Forecasting (MRED project)

• MRED project is patterned after NARCCAP
• uses output from the National Centers for
  Environmental Prediction (NCEP) global model as
  input to fine-scale regional models
• many of the same participants as NARCCAP
• ISU has done some exploratory work using a
  similar approach.
• Project has been proposed to NOAA.

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Examples of Studying Impacts of Climate Change

• Global climate models have demonstrated skill in
  simulation of future climates (1980s GCMs
  projected accelerated warming in the Arctic that
  now is being observed)
• Regional model output is being used for studying
• Impact on land-use and climate change on
  landscape change (C. Kling, CARD)
• Impact of climate change on streamflow in UMRB
  (C. Kling, P. Gassman, M. Jha, CARD)
• Impact of climate change on tile drainage flow
  (A. Kalieta, M. Helmers, ABE)
• Changes in wind speed (wind power) under
  climate change (S. Pryor, Indiana U)
• Pavement performance under climate change (C.
  Williams, CCEE)

http//www.rcmlab.agron.iastate.edu/
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Examples of Studying Impacts of Climate Change

• Regional model output is being used for studying
• Seasonal climate forecasts (MRED J Roads, R.
  Leung, C. Anderson, H. Juang)
• Impact of climate change on crop yields (Z.
  Pan, SLU)
• Impact of climate change on plant disease (X.
  B. Yang, Plant Pathology, and Z. Pan)
• Others?
• Discussions on climate change impacts
• Montane plant and butterfly changes (D.
  Debinski, EEOB)
• Soil erosion (R. Cruse, Agron)
• Buffer strips, cloud forests (H. Asbjornsen,
  NREM)
• Turtle populations (F. Janzen, EEOB)
• Carbon sequestration (P. Schnable, Agron)
• Bioeconomy (R. Brown, S. Fales, J. Miranowski)

http//rcmlab.agron.iastate.edu/
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Midwest Consortium for Climate Assessment (MiCCA)
MiCCAs mission is to translate and enhance the
latest NOAA climate forecast products to maximize
economic gains for agricultural producers and
their agribusiness service providers in the U.S.
Midwest through use of advanced regional models,
interactive web-based decision-making tools, and
high-volume customized delivery and feedback
through the existing integrated regional, state,
and county level extension service network
throughout the 9-state region (MN, IA, MO, WI,
IL, MI, IN, OH, KY).
http//rcmlab.agron.iastate.edu/
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Iowa Environmental Mesonet

• Goal Build a centralized clearing house for
  environmental data in Iowa
• "Network of networks" Collect, process and
  archive data from pre-existing networks
• Build two-way partnerships with data providers
  and data users foster interdisciplinary
  collaboration and research
• Daily data processing
• IEM ingests over 300,000 obs/day (111 million in
  1996)
• 20 GB of compressed Level2 NEXRAD data is
  processed, 10,000 Level3 NEXRAD radar attribute
  files are ingested into the spatial database
• Thousands of NWS issued text products are
  processed to extract data and information.
• 99 of processing done in real-time.

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Observation Archive (as of 10/2006)
Begins Current Stations Obs Stored
ASOS 1945 17 1,323,570
IA AWOS 1995 37 191,017,657
IA RWIS 1994 53 15,015,105
SchoolNet 2002 131 166,626,011
NWS COOP 1893 185 3,107,343
Ag Climate 1998 14 1,003,436
Other Lots 20,000,000
Total 400 million
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Virtual Environmental Observatories

• Assemble comprehensive historical databases on
• environment measurements (meteorological, soil
  moisture, soil carbon, crop status, ground water,
  streamflow, water quality, air quality, etc.)
• landscape information (elevations, soil types,
  land-use, land cover, animal/bird populations,
  drainage, tillage, cropping patterns, chemical
  application, conservation practices, ownership,
  etc.)
• human demographics (population, built
  environment, pollutant sources, etc.)
• Assemble dynamical models for imposing
  constraints and consistencies
• Physical laws, balances, plausibility
• Forecast future conditions with applications to
• extreme weather events,flood/drought impacts
  forecasting, emergency management, advanced
  preparedness, toxic releases, crop development,
  chemical/seed purchase, chemical application,
  planting/marketing planning, recreational
  opportunities, etc.

http//rcmlab.agron.iastate.edu/
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Whats it going to cost us?
Total cost of large-scale carbon capture and
storage 76 - 450/tC
Example Added cost to drive your
car. (0.076-0.450)/kg C x (12 kg C/44 kg CO2) x
10.4 kg CO2/gal x (1 gal/25 mi) x 12,000 mi/yr
103 - 613/yr (0.22 - 1.28/gal)
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An Investment Opportunity?
Total cost of large-scale carbon capture and
storage 76 - 450/tC
Current price of sequestered carbon on Chicago
Climate Exchange 10/tC
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Center for Carbon-Capturing Crops
Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations/global
climate change Produce crops with cell walls that
are resistant to microbial degradation

• Sequester carbon in soil
• Increase organic matter
• Increase farm income

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Genetic Approaches
Cell wall composition varies among genotypes
Use genetic variation to identify genes that
regulate resistance of roots to microbial
degradation (guilt by association)
Hazen et al., 2003 Plant Physiol.
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Sampling Nested Association Mapping Lines
6,000 recombinant inbred lines generated to
sample the genetic diversity of maize
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Root Samples from the NAM Lines
N2 x 6,000 Samples
Sarah Hargreaves
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Genetic Variation in Distribution of Vascular
Bundles and Lignification among 25 NAM Parents
NC358
CML277
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Next Steps - Near Term

• Website
• Directory of ISU climate related research and
  interests (short CV, pubs, grants, ideas)
• Seminar series
• Office of climate-change and climate-impacts
  research
• One full-time position
• Educational initiatives and support
• Proposal collaboration
• Long-term vision statement

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Next Steps - Long-Term

• Center or institute
• Faculty positions
• Graduate assistantships
• Named chair