NCAR%20Initiative%20on%20Weather%20and%20Climate%20Impact%20Assessment%20Science%20(WCIAS)

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NCAR Initiative on Weather and Climate
Impact Assessment Science (WCIAS)
L. O. Mearns, Director D. Nychka, Acting
Director, 03 L. Dilling, Project Manager
http//www.assessment.ucar.edu Initiative
Review August 3-4, 2004
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Introduction to the Assessment Initiative

• NCAR context
• Motivation for WCIAS Initiative
• Strategy
• Initiative Themes/Goals
• Uncertainty
• Extremes
• Climate and Health
• Long-term vision
• Agenda for the Review

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The NCAR Initiative Context

• New initiatives were selected competitively to
• develop new research strands at NCAR
• Encourage integration across NCAR
• Process started in FY2001, funding in FY2002
• Several large initiatives were funded, e.g.
• Biogeosciences
• Data Assimilation
• Water Cycle across Scales
• Wildland Fire RD Collaboratory
• AND
• Weather and Climate Impact Assessment Science
  (WCIAS)

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What is Impact Assessment?

• Practice of identifying and evaluating the
  detrimental and beneficial consequences of
  phenomena such as weather and climate on natural
  and human systems.

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However, to conduct effective, high quality
assessments, scientists and society must have the
appropriate methods, tools, and research.
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WCIAS Overarching Goal

• To improve societys ability to manage weather
  and climate risks by creating and providing
  research tools and methods at the critical
  frontiers of impact assessment science.

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WCIAS Strategy

• Filling critical gaps in weather and climate
  impact assessment science
• Developing integrating methods
• Moving toward decision-making as a centerpiece
• Promoting integration of assessment science
  activities at NCAR, nationally and internationally

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Filling Critical Gaps in Three Areas

• Uncertainty
• Goal To support improved responses to weather
  and climate risks by understanding and
  characterizing the uncertainties throughout the
  assessment process that affect decision-making.
• Extreme Events
• Goal To increase the resilience of human
  populations to extreme weather and climate events
  through improved tools, modeling and data.
• Climate and Human Health
• Goal To catalyze and nurture an
  interdisciplinary research community studying the
  effects of climate on human health.

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Why these Three Themes ?

• Need for significant methodological development
  and integration as emphasized in IPCC, USNA,
  other national/international assessments
• Areas in which NCAR physical science/statistical
  expertise can be leveraged and drawn towards
  environmental and societal aspects (ESIG)
• The three themes are inter-related and each can
  help in the development of the others

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1.Critical Gaps in Uncertainty
Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty
is an absurd one.
-Voltaire
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1. Critical Gaps in Uncertainty

• Crucial conceptual confusions remain in research
  programs on uncertainty e.g., reduction vs.
  characterization
• Limitations of climate scenarios opposite
  directions of change in precipitation how to
  evaluate impacts?
• Lack of research on regional-scale uncertainties
  still most work on global-scale probabilities
  of climate change

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Projections of Future Climate
T ??P
Spatial Scale of Uncertainty
T ?P
T P
Increasing Uncertainty
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1. Critical Gaps in Uncertainty cont.

• Missing forcings e.g., land cover change, solar
  variability, volcanoes
• Failure to clearly connect stakeholder
  decision-needs to quantification of uncertainty
  of future climate

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• U.S. Workshop on Climate Projections,
  Uncertainty, and Scenarios for Impacts
  Assessment
• 17-19 July 2002
• National Center for Atmospheric ResearchBoulder,
  Colorado

1) Decision-makers/Resource managers2) Impacts
community 3) Emissions scenarios/other forcing
scenarios group 4) Climate modelers
(global/regional)/Climate data analysts5)
Experts in uncertainty 6) Agency/program
representatives
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1. Critical Gaps in Uncertainty

• Characterizing uncertainty on regional scales
  regional probabilities, climate simulations
• Extending capabilities of scenarios by exploring
  forcing uncertainty and assumptions Land cover
  change, paleo-modeling

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1. Critical Gaps Filled in Uncertainty

• Developed new methods to be used for AR4 for
  probabilistic regional climate forecasts
• Incorporated land cover change into simulations
  for scenario development
• Challenged paleo assumptions, including
  stationarity of teleconnections, proxies, and
  solar forcing

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2. Critical Gaps in Extremes
Frequency of mid-latitude storms in the future??
IPCC WG 2
IPCC WG 1
High uncertainty, but also high impact Included
in summary table even with high uncertainty
High uncertainty Unwilling to list probability
in summary table
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2. Critical Gaps in Extremes

• Understanding the trend of extreme events most
  relevant to impacts (e.g., heat waves, onset of
  frost days) in a changing climate
• Understanding the distribution and frequency of
  extreme phenomena (e.g., tornadoes) under a
  changing climate
• Improved quantification of extreme event
  observations and new tools to study extreme
  events in meteorological records

733 deaths in July 1995 in Chicago from heat
wave
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2. Critical Gaps Filled Extremes

• Experiments to examine future occurrence and
  severity of heat waves and frost days from GCMs
• Global reanalysis data set being used to examine
  potential for severe storms
• Aviation extremes being better quantified

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Critical Gaps 3 Climate and Health

• Both temperature and precipitation extremes are
  important contributors to risks to human health
• Human health risks of great importance to public
  and decision-makers (high dread factor)
• Human health is one of the less well-developed
  impacts areas (e.g., compared to agriculture or
  water resources)
• Many uncertainties in climate-health link (e.g.,
  vector-borne disease)

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Need for Health/Climate/Environment Programs
Specific recommendations from the National
Academy of Sciences Report of the Committee on
Climate, Ecosystems, Infectious Disease, and
Human Health (2001) Development of educational
programs for health workers that explore
environmental and socio-economic factors
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Critical Gaps Filled Climate and Health

• Through an annual Summer Colloquium on Climate
  and Health we support and nurture a new community
  of climate/health researchers
• The first Colloquium was held at NCAR July 21-28,
  2004

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Developing Integrating Methods

• In order to meet the goals and fill critical
  gaps, new methods are needed
• The WCIAS Initiative has developed new tools and
  methods to meet this need, including
• The Extremes Toolkit an online, free tool that
  allows users to analyze data using extreme value
  theory, to estimate trends and changes in
  extremes
• Integration of climate change probabilities with
  an integrated water resource model
• A decision-centered approach to extremes such as
  flooding and wildfire risk

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Towards Decision-Making as aCenterpiece
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Examples of Linkages Among Extremes Projects
Changes in Extremes, Important to Society (e.g.
Heat Waves, Tornados)
Analysis from Climate Models
Probability Estimates
Spatial Scaling of Extremes (Validation)
Climate (OBS)
Downscaling of Extreme Phenomena
Extremes Tool Kit
Social Vulnerability
Extremes Important to Society
Decision Making
Societal Impacts (e.g. Heat Mortality)
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Need for Integration
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Unique Characteristics

• Allows for deep exploration of new topics risk
  taking that is unusual for a conventional
  rfp-funded project
• Rare opportunity to pursue methods-driven
  research that will serve a societal need
  available funding is limited
• Allows for both predictable and unpredictable
  synergies among researchers, programs,
  institutions

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Long-term Goals

• NCAR is recognized as a national and
  international leader in Integrated Uncertainty
  Analysis including decision- making (ISSE)
• NCAR creates a complete, integrated program on
  extreme events (atmospheric science, statistics,
  societal vulnerability)
• Climate and Health Annual Summer Colloquium
  becomes world-class program in training students
  in this interdisciplinary field

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Introducing Our Team

• Linda Mearns
• Doug Nychka
• Jerry Meehl
• Caspar Amman
• Gordon Bonan
• Harold Brooks
• Barbara Brown
• Lisa Dilling
• Mary Downton
• Dorin Drignei
• Johan Feddema
• Susan Foster
• Eric Gilleland
• Bob Harriss
• Rebecca Haacker-Santos
• Vicki Holzhauer
• Rick Katz
• Kathy Miller

• Rebecca Morss
• Susi Moser
• Philippe Naveau
• Keith Oleson
• Jen Oxelson
• Jonathan Patz
• Matt Pocernich
• Marcia Politovich
• Uli Schneider
• Richard Smith
• Claudia Tebaldi
• Robert Tomas
• Gene Wahl
• Warren Washington
• Tom Wigley
• Olga Wilhelmi
• David Yates

In 5 UCAR/NCAR divisions, many programs, and
multiple universities
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Todays Agenda

• Overview
• Filling Critical Gaps highlights
• Developing Integrating Methods
• -- Lunch --
• Moving Toward Decision-Making as a Centerpiece
• Integration, Management, and the Future
• Integration, Education, Collaboration
• Management and Budget
• Future Plans