EC Stratospheric Research Present and Future Claus Brning Climate change and environmental risks Uni

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EC Stratospheric Research Present and Future
Claus BrüningClimate change and environmental
risks Unit European Commission - DG Research
Environment Directorate

• IGBP 20th Anniversary Symposium17-18th
  September 2007

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Overview

• Stratospheric research in the 5th Framework
  Programme (1998-2002) - some pertinent results
• Climate Change and Ozone Depletion research
  topics in the 6th Framework Programme (2003-2006)
• Outlook Stratospheric Research in the 7th
  Framework Programme (2007-2013)
• The WMO 2006 Ozone Assessment Report
  Research-policy interface

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• FP5 (1998-2002)
• Key Action approach Integration of the
  environmental dimension in research strong
  attention to climate, tropospheric and
  stratospheric processes, support of policy
  relevant research
• Over 180 research projects funded in areas
  (budget 250 Mill ECU)
• - Climate change prediction
• - Climate dynamics and abrupt changes
• - Interactions between ecosystems and
  carbon/nitrogen cycle
• - Atmospheric composition Change
• - Stratospheric ozone depletion
• - Mitigation and adaptation
• - European contribution to global observation
  systems
• - Natural hazards research
• Contributing to IGBP, WCRP, IHDP, IPCC and WMO
  Ozone Assessments

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FP5 (1998-2002)Stratospheric ozone depletion

• Basic objectives quantification and
  prediction of ozone depletion in
• the stratosphere, quantification and
  prediction of UV-radiation levels
• at the Earths surface.
• Anthropogenic and natural emissions of ozone
  depleting substances and
• their transformations
• Reduction of uncertainties in stratospheric-tropos
  pheric exchange processes
• Impacts of aircraft emissions
• Ozone loss in the stratosphere over Europe and
  its links with the
• polar, tropical regions and the upper
  troposphere
• Understanding of stratospheric cooling and its
  links to tropospheric global warming
• Atmospheric UV-radiation field and its changes in
  the European region

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Area Stratospheric ozone depletion

• Research in FP5 mainly organised through clusters

Stratospheric Ozone Loss (SOLO) cluster (6
projects) aims to further our understanding of
the processes that lead to stratospheric ozone
loss in the Arctic during the winter and
spring Atmospheric UV radiation (ATUV) cluster
(3 projects) aims to further our understanding
of the evolution of UV radiation at the Earth's
surface and in the atmosphere over the last ten
years. Ozone-Climate Interaction (OCLI) cluster
(5 Projects) studies the physical and chemical
impacts on climate in the past caused by
variations in stratospheric ozone and to what
extent these variations can be explained by
natural and / or anthropogenic forcing Global
Atmospheric Observations (GATO) cluster (5
projects) Coordination of research related to
atmospheric observations on global and long term
time scale Coordination of Research for the Study
of Air-craft impact on the Environment
(CORSAIRE) cluster (9 projects)
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Some pertinent results from FP5 projects

• Quantification of ozone depletion in relation
  to climate change
• For the first time, and based on observations,
  M. Rex and colleagues have been able to quantify
  the relation between Arctic ozone loss and
  changes in climate. They found ozone destruction
  in the Northern Polar region to be three times
  more sensitive to changes in climate than
  previously thought. Cooling trend of the polar
  stratosphere cold winters become colder.
• TRADEOFF (Aircraft Emissions Contribution of
  Different Climate Components to Changes in
  Radiative Forcing) R. Sausen and
• colleagues found that aviation emission
  impacts on cirrus
• clouds three times larger than that from
  CO2 emissions alone
• on climate.
• TROCCINOX (Tropical Convection, Cirrus and
  Nitrogen Oxides Experiment) U. Schumann and
  colleagues revised the annual lighting produced
  NOx from experiments
• LNOx 3.6 - 1.9 Tg/a TROCCINOX
• (LNOx 5-2 Tg/a old data)
• (aircraft NOx about 0.7-1.0 Tg/a)

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FP6 (2002-2006) Global Change and Ecosystems
Programme

• Support of integrated multidisciplinary
  research, sustainability to be integrated in all
  areas of research, especially Energy, Transport
  and Agriculture, implemented mainly through
  Integrated Projects (IPs)

• Area I Impact and mechanisms of greenhouse gas
  emissions and
• atmospheric pollutants on climate, ozone
  depletion and carbon sinks
• Research priorities
• I.1 Carbon and nitrogen cycles sources and sinks
• I.2 Atmospheric pollutants and their regional
  impacts
• I.3 Climate dynamics and variability
• I.4 Prediction of climate change and its impacts
• I.5 Stratospheric ozone and climate interactions
• I.6 Adaptation and mitigation strategies

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FP6 (2002-2006) Global Change and Ecosystems
Programme

• Topic I.5. Stratospheric Ozone and Climate
  Interactions
• Core objectives
• Future stratospheric ozone levels
• Impact of Climate Change on the Stratosphere
• UV Radiation
• Aviation impacts on the UTLS

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Ongoing FP6 research projectsIP SCOUT-O3
(Stratosphere-Climatelinks with emphasis On The
UTLS)

• Objectives
• To better understand fundamental atmospheric
  processes
• to improve chemistry/climate models to assess the
  future
• evolution of the ozone layer and surface
  UV-levels
• Co-ordinator J. Pyle, University of Cambridge
• Participants 58 from 20 countries
• Duration May 2004 to April 2009
• EC funding 15.0 M
• Total costs 22.0 M

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Ongoing FP6 research projects IP QUANTIFY
(Quantifying the Climate Impact of global and
European Transport Systems)
Objectives To quantify the climate impact of
the global and European transport systems for
the present situation and for different
scenarios of future development. Co-ordinator
R. Sausen, DLR-IPA Participants
35 from 16 countries Duration
March 2005 to February 2010 EC funding
8.0 M Total costs 12.0
M
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Ongoing FP6 research projects IP GEOMON
(Global Earth Observation and Monitoring)

• Objectives
• To sustain and analyze European ground-based
  observations of atmospheric compositions to
  quantify and understand the ongoing changes.

Co-ordinator P. CIAIS, CEA,
FR Participants 37 from 15
countries Duration January 2007
to December 2011 EC funding proposed 6.6
M Total costs 10.0 M
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Ongoing FP6 research projects
Specific Support ActionATTICA (European
Assessment of the Transport Impacts on Climate
Change and Ozone Depletion)

• Objective Assess the impact of aviation,
  shipping and road transport on climate and ozone
  depletion
• Co-ordinator R. Sausen, DLR, Germany
• Proposed budget 680.000 EURO
• HCFC-Works shop (specific policy
  support action)
• Objective Supporting developing countries to
  reduce consumption of HCFCs by providing
  information of alternatives, technology transfer
  etc., aiming at an early phase-out of HCFCs use.
• Co-ordinator M. Wagner, ICF Consulting
• Proposed budget 300.000 EURO

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FP7(2007-2013)Environment (including climate
change) Programme

• Objectives
• To promote sustainable management of the
• Environment and its resources through advancing
• our knowledge on the interactions between
  climate,
• biosphere, ecosystems and Human activities
• Stratospheric Research will be mainly implemented
  
• under
• Activity 6.1. Climate Change Pollution and
  Risks

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FP7(2007-2013)Environment (including climate
change) Programme

• 6.1.1 Climate change pollution and risks
• area 1 The Earth System and Climate Functioning
  and abrupt changes
• area 2 Emissions and Pressures natural and
  anthropogenic
• area 3 The Global Carbon cycle - GreenHouse Gas
  budget
• area 4 Future Climate
• area 5 Climate Change Natural and Socio-economic
  Impacts
• area 6. Response strategies Adaptation,
  Mitigation and Policies
• 6.1.2 Environment and Health
• area 1 Health effects of exposure to
  environmental stressors
• area 2 Integrated approaches for environment and
  health risk assessment
• area 3 Delivery of methods and decision support
  tools for risk analysis and
• policy development
• 6.1.3 Natural Hazards

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FP7(2007-2013)

• Indicative topics for the second call in FP7
  (2008) related to
• UV and stratospheric research
• 6.1.1 Climate change pollution and risks
• area 2 Emissions and Pressures natural and
  anthropogenic
• - Climate-chemistry interactions in the
  Stratosphere related
• to Ozone depletion
• area 6 Response strategies Adaptation,
  Mitigation and Policies
• - Implications and risks of novel options to
  limit
• climate change
• 6.1.2 Environment and Health
• area 1 Health effects of exposure to
  environmental stressors
• - Quantification of changing UV surface
  radiation levels and
• its impacts on human health

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The WMO 2006 Ozone Assessment Report
Research-policy interface

• The WMO 2006 Ozone Assessment Report is an
  excellent document and should help guiding policy
  makers on how to proceed safeguarding the ozone
  layer. It has been established with significant
  contributions from the European stratospheric
  science community from projects funded by past
  and ongoing the EC research Framework Programmes.
• The dissemination of the results of the
  report is an important issue.
• Actions
• The European Commission has organised an
  internal Climate Change Seminar on 27 June in
  Brussels for Commission services, on
• Climate change and stratospheric ozone
  recovery
• a coupled problem!
• Results of the 2006 "WMO Scientific
  Assessment of Ozone Depletion" (Martin Dameris,
  DLR, DE)

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The WMO 2006 Ozone Assessment Report
Research-policy interface

• translation of complex scientific results
  into simplified messages for the public is a
  non-trivial problem.
• Some basic conclusions from the seminar
• Climate change already has and will further cool
  the stratosphere.
• Future increases of greenhouse gas concentrations
  will contribute to the average cooling in the
  stratosphere.
• A cooler stratosphere over polar regions will
  lead to an increase in the amount of polar
  stratospheric clouds (PSCs).
• PSCs plus high concentration of halogen
  components are responsible for polar ozone
  depletion and the Antarctic ozone hole.

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The WMO 2006 Ozone Assessment Report
Research-policy interface

• Therefore there is a (high) risk that Climate
  Change and high concentration of halogen
  (chlorine) components in the stratosphere will
  cause the development of an ozone hole even over
  arctic polar region in spring time.
• For this reason it is essential that the Montreal
  Protocol, the reduction of emissions CFCs, HCFCs
  etc. is implemented consequently.
• Only under the condition that the implementation
  of the Montreal Protocol remains on track,
  atmospheric chlorine loads will decrease further
  and that anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions
  are cut, a lasting recovery of the stratospheric
  ozone layer is expected.

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The WMO 2006 Ozone Assessment Report
Research-policy interface

• Final remarks
• Its probably fair to say that EC Framework
  Programmes became a very effective tool to
  integrate European research, very fruitful in the
  area of stratospheric research were international
  collaboration is essential.
• Based on the results of the WMO 2006 Ozone
  Assessment
• report and the pending research questions,
  stratospheric
• research, as already indicated, will remain a
  priority within
• 7th Framework Programme.
• For further information please contact the web
• http//cordis.europa.eu/fp7/