Peter Schultz, Ph'D'

1
CLIVAR and the U.S.Climate Change Science
Program U.S. CLIVAR SummitKeystone,
ColoradoAugust 15, 2005

• Peter Schultz, Ph.D.
• Associate Director for Science Integration
• Climate Change Science Program Office

2
CLIVAR - CCSP LINKAGE

• CCSP is counting on U.S. CLIVAR!
• Agencies that fund U.S. CLIVAR are accountable to
  CCSP Milestones, Products, and Payoffs.
• Agency priorities are linked to CCSP priorities.
• CCSP provides a vital framework for CLIVAR

3
CCSP Background

• U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP)
  1990
• Climate Change Research Initiative (CCRI) 2001
• Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) 2002
• CCSP encompasses CCRI and USGCRP
• Coordinates integrates climate research
• Composed of 13 Departments / Agencies
• 2B/year

4
CCSP Strategic Plan
Released July 2003
Vision A nation and the global community
empowered with the science-based knowledge to
manage the risks and opportunities of change in
the climate and related environmental
systems. www.climatescience.gov
5
CCSP Internal Structure
CCSP Interagency Committee Director Asst. Sec.
of Commerce for Oceans
Atmosphere
CCSP Office
Atm. Comp.
Climate Var. Change
Carbon Cycle
Interagency Working Groups
Communications
HD / HCR
Ecosystems
Water Cycle
LULCC
International
Observations
6
CCSP Goals

• CCSP GOALS
• 1. Improve Knowledge of Climate and Environment
• 2. Improve Quantification of Forces Driving
  Changes to Climate
• 3. Reduce Uncertainty in Projections of Future
  Climate Changes
• 4. Understand Sensitivity Adaptability of
  Natural Manmade Ecosystems
• 5. Explore Uses and Limits of Managing Risks and
  Opportunities

RELEVANCE TO CLIVAR HIGH Phenom., Obs.,
Synth. Panel Process Studies Model Improve.
Panel MOD.HIGH HIGH Process Studies
Model Improve. Panel Predictabil., Predict.,
Applicat. Panel LOW MOD.-HIGH Predictabil.,
Predict., Applicat. Panel
7
RELEVANT CCSP ELEMENTS

• CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE
• Q 4.1. To what extent can uncertainties in model
  projections due to climate system feedbacks be
  reduced?
• Milestones, Products, and Payoffs include
• - Refined estimates of feedback processes (and
  climate sensitivity) and their representation in
  models, leading to a narrowing of climate model
  projections (2-4 yrs)
• - Improved climate data products, including,
  e.g., assimilation and reanalysis of Earth system
  data from satellites and in situ for model
  development and testing high-res. regional data
  2-4 yrs
• - Increased understanding of the causes of
  climate var. change 2-4 yrs
• - Targeted paleoclimate time series 2-4 yrs
• - Improved effectiveness of observing systems
  based in part on model guidance 2-4 yrs

8
RELEVANT CCSP ELEMENTS

• CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE (cont.)
• Q 4.2. How can predictions and projections of
  climate be improved, and what are limits of
  predictability?
• Milestones, Products, and Payoffs include
• - Improved probability forecasts of regional
  manifestations of seasonal climate anomalies lt2
  yrs and beyond
• - Improved high-res, 3-D ocean circulation
  models 2-4 yrs
• - Improvements in the representation of major
  modes of climate variability in climate
  predictions and projections gt4 yrs
• - An assessment of potential predictability
  beyond ENSO (e.g., assoc. with PDV, NAO, annular
  modes, tropical Atl. and Indian Oc. gt4 yrs
• - Estimates of limits of predictability of
  variability change forced by human activities
  gt4 yrs

9
RELEVANT CCSP ELEMENTS

• CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE (cont.)
• Q 4.3. What is the likelihood of abrupt changes
  in the climate system?
• Milestones, Products, and Payoffs include
• Improved understanding of thresholds and
  nonlinearities in the climate system, especially
  for coupled atm-oc, thermocline and deepwater,
  hydrology, gt4 yrs
• Databases of drought/megadrought in N. America
  2-4 yrs
• Online database of annual-to-decadal resolution
  time series and maps of Arctic climate
  variability over the past 2,000 years 2-4 yrs
• Probabilistic estimates of future risks of abrupt
  global and regional climate-induced changes,
  including the collapse of the THC, persistent
  ENSO conditions, and abrupt sea level rise 2-4
  yrs

10
RELEVANT CCSP ELEMENTS

• CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE (cont.)
• Q 4.4. How are extreme events related to climate
  variability and change?
• Milestones, Products, and Payoffs include
• - Improved obs and model databases to detect and
  analyze trends in extreme events 2-4 yrs
• - Analysis of the relationships between extreme
  events and natural climate variations and modes
  2-4 yrs
• - Assessment of potential predictability and
  forecasts of probabilities of extreme events
  2-4 yrs
• - Probabilistic estimates of possible future
  changes in frequencies, intensities, and geog.
  distributions of extreme events 2-4 yrs

11
RELEVANT CCSP ELEMENTS

• CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE (cont.)
• Q 4.5. How can information on climate var.
  change be most efficiently developed and
  integrated with non-climatic knowledge, and
  communicated to serve society?
• Milestones, Products, and Payoffs include
• - Establishment of research teams involving
  climate and social scientists and stakeholders to
  create focused, user-responsive partnerships lt2
  yrs and beyond
• - Assessment of the adequacy of existing
  operational climate monitoring networks to
  provide regional decision support 2-4 yrs
• - Development of high-resolution climate
  products based on obs, paleo data, and climate
  forecasts 2-4 yrs
• - Documented regional impacts of climate var.,
  and development of reports on the potential
  implications of projected changes gt 4yrs

12
RELEVANT CCSP ELEMENTS

• WATER CYCLE
• Q 5.1. What are the mechanisms and processes
  responsible for the maintenance and variability
  of the water cycle? Trends? Causes of trends?
• Q 5.2. How do feedback processes control
  interactions between the global water cycle and
  other parts of the climate system?
• Q 5.3. What are the key uncertainties in S-I
  predictions and long-term projections of water
  cycle variables, and what model improvements are
  needed?

13
RELEVANT CCSP ELEMENTS

• WATER CYCLE (cont.)
• Q 5.4. What are the consequences of water cycle
  variability and change to societies and
  ecosystems?
• Q 5.5. How can global water cycle information be
  used to inform decision processes in the context
  of changing water resource conditions and
  policies?
• ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION
• Q 3.5 What are the couplings and feedback
  mechanisms among climate change, air pollution,
  and ozone layer depletion?

14
RELEVANT CCSP ELEMENTS

• MODELING
• Goal 1. Improve the scientific basis of climate
  and impacts models.
• Goal 2. Provide the infrastructure and capacity
  necessary to support a scientifically rigorous
  and responsive U.S. climate modeling activity.
• Goal 3. Coordinate and accelerate climate
  modeling activities and provide relevant decision
  support information on a timely basis.

15
RELEVANT CCSP ELEMENTS

• OBSERVATIONS
• Goal 1. Design, develop, deploy, integrate, and
  sustain observation components into a
  comprehensive system.
• Goal 2. Accelerate the development and deployment
  of observing and monitoring elements needed for
  decision support.
• Goal 3. Provide stewardship of the observing
  system.
• Goal 4. Integrate modeling activities with the
  observing system.
• Goal 5. Foster international cooperation to
  develop a complete global observing system.
• Manage the observing system with an effective
  interagency structure.

16
RELEVANT CCSP ELEMENTS

• OTHER KEY CCSP RESEARCH ELEMENT LINKAGES
• - CARBON CYCLE
• - LAND USE / LAND COVER CHANGE
• - ECOSYSTEMS
• - HUMAN CONTRIBUTIONS AND RESPONSES

17
Synthesis Assessment Products

• 21 CCSP SYNTHESIS AND ASSESSMENT PRODUCTS
• Current evaluations of the science foundation
  that can be used for informing public debate,
  policy, and operational decisions, and for
  setting future direction and priorities of the
  program
• CLIVAR-Relevant SA Products
• 1.1 Temperature trends
• 1.2 Past Arctic climate variability and change
• 1.3 Re-analyses of historical climate data.
  Implications for attribution
• 3.1 Climate models and their uses and
  limitations
• 3.2 Climate projections
• 3.3 Climate extremes
• 3.4 Risks of abrupt climate change
• 5.1 Uses and limitations of climate information
  in decision support
• 5.2 Characterizing scientific uncertainty to
  inform decisionmaking
• 5.3 Decision support using S-I forecasts and
  observational data

18
Synthesis Assessment Products

• CONCLUSIONS
• It is in U.S. CLIVARs self-interest to account
  for relevant CCSP research elements in its
  planning.
• CCSP encourages movement toward providing
  capabilities, products, and information to inform
  stakeholders and decision-makers.
• Think carefully about demonstrating progress
  (via metrics) toward CCSP objectives.
• Strong scientific leadership by CLIVAR
  (scientists and agencies) is required.
• A robust partnership between CCSP and CLIVAR
  may yield benefits for both.

19
Synthesis Assessment Products
20
(No Transcript)
21
(No Transcript)
22
(No Transcript)
23
CCSP Workshop

• Location Marriott Crystal Gateway, Arlington,
  VA
• Purpose To facilitate exchange of ideas among
  the government, academic, international, NGO, and
  stakeholder groups participating in the CCSP
  process.
• Topics Discussions will include the scientific
  basis and the use of the CCSP Synthesis and
  Assessment Products in addressing CCSPs three
  decision support goals
• Prepare scientific syntheses and assessments
  (national and international)
• Develop and illustrate adaptive management and
  planning capabilities.
• Develop and evaluate methods to support climate
  change policy inquiries
• Registration http//www.climatescience.gov/works
  hop2005/

24
Synthesis Assessment Products
U.S. CLIVAR reorganization aligns well with CCSP
Phenomenology, Observations, and Synthesis
Panel  (POS) Goal 1 Process Studies and Model
Improvement Panel (PSMI) Goals 1
3 Predictability, Prediction, Applications
Interface Panel (PPAI) Goals 3 5