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Title: The basic lines of scientific research into water resources


1
The basic lines of scientific research into
water resources
2
The basic lines of scientific research into
water resources
3
  • WATER RESOURCE MANAGEMENT
  • IN UKRAINE UNDER
  • LIFECONDITIONED TRANSFORMATION AND GLOBAL
    CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE BASIS OF
  • CLIMATE RUNOFF MODEL

4
PROJECT GOAL
  • To present efficiency of
  • climate runoff model
  • in evaluation of water management transformation
    consequences

5
Project Members
  • Department of Land Hydrology, Odessa State
    Environmental University, 15 Lvovskaya Street,
    Odessa 65016, Ukraine
  • Head of the Department of Land Hydrology Eugen
    D. Gopchenko
  • Leader of the Project professor Nataliya S.
    Loboda (loboda_at_paco.net)
  • Phone 326-746
  • e-mail gidro_at_ogmi.farlep.odessa.ua

6
CLIMATE-RUNOFF MODEL
Lifeconditioned runoff
7
PRINCIPAL QUESTIONS
8
Hydrological system under anthropogenic influence
  • Hydrological system under anthropogenic
    influence can be described by means of the
    classical mechanics master equation of the
    Liuville type as follows
  • dY
  • L(?,Y) e
  • dt
  • Y(t) Y(t0)-S L(?,Y)dt S e dt
  • ? (t0 ) - natural flow
  • Y(t ) - anthropogenic flow
  • e - external effect caused global
    warming
  • L - operator of life-conditioned
    influence describing flow
  • changes under
    water-management transformations
  • (irrigation, additional
    evaporation from water surface of artificial
    water
  • reservoirs, regenerated
    flow).

9
Annual Climatic Norms of Runoff Calculated by
Meteorological Data
  • Zones of surplus (Yk?140 ??),
  • sufficient (30?Yk lt140 ??) and insufficient
    (Yklt30 ??) humidity

10
Norm of Climatic Annual Runoff Characterizes
Water Resources under Natural State
Scheme of Irrigative System in the South of
Ukraine
11
Norm of Climatic Annual Runoff Characterizes
Water Resources under Natural State
Critical scales f () of water surface in
artificial reservoirs in the south western
Ukraine under initial climatic conditions
Norms of climatic runoff, mm Critical scales f () , under decreasing water resources Critical scales f () , under decreasing water resources Critical scales f () , under decreasing water resources
Norms of climatic runoff, mm 10 50 70
30 0,7 4,0 6,5
20 0,5 3,0 5,0
10 0,3 2,0 3,7
  • Destruction of Water System

12
Influence of Global Warming on the Natural
Resources of Ukraine
Resources of humidity (X), Resources of warmth
and water resources (Y) in the central part of
Ukraine under climatice conditions within the
latest century and in accordance with the
scenarios (1,2,3), (0) being the initial stage
of global warming Maximum decrease of water
resources comprises 25, according to the Script
1
13
Response Functions for Long Time Average of
Annual Lifeconditioned Runoff of Catchments
The figure shows response functions for long time
average (norm) of annual lifeconditioned runoff
of catchments, situated on the Crimea pensulas
plain. Ordinates of these dependences are
coefficients, characterizing changes to
the norms of runoff under conditions of
additional inflow from agricultural areas,
irrigated by water of North Crimean Canal. The
figure illustrates increasing norms of
lifeconditioned runoff with growing areas of
irrigation . If The anthropogenic
effect depends on the level of optimal moistening
of soil. At present time small rivers of
the Crimean pensulas plain are drainage canals.
The red line shows the level of essential
changes of runoff norms equal to 10.
14
DEVELOPMENT OF SCIENTIFIC BASE AND
RECOMMENDATIONS FOR WATER RESOURCE MANAGEMENT
DURING FORMATION OF CATASTROPHIC FLOODS ON THE
RIVERS
15
DANGEROUS HYDROLOGICAL PHENOMENA
WINTER
SUMMER
AUTUMN
SPRING
16
OSENU TECHNIQUE FOR ACCOUNT OF THE MAXIMUM
RUNOFF OF THE RIVERS
SCHEME OF STREAMFLOW GENERATION
17
(No Transcript)
18
TERRITORIAL LONG-TERM FORECAST OF MAXIMUM RIVER
RUNOFF RESULTING FROM MELTING OF SNOW AND
PRECIPITATION
19
INITIAL DATA BASE
Basic data
On-line data
Depth of frost zone
Water-storage of snow cover
Air temperature
Morphometric features of water catchment
Average perennial hydrological characteristics
Precipitation
Soil moisture
Processing of on-line hydrometeorological data
Scheme of long-term forecast for maximum
flood kmf(SmP1P2)/(SoP1oP2?)
?. Qualitative forecast (model of discriminant
function) DFaoa1x1a2x2amxm
Derivation of the value for maximum flood
Map for the forecast module coefficients (km)
??. Quantitative forecast derivation of module
coefficient km
Estimation of forecast
???. Determination of probability of the
forecast value in perennial period (?)
Map for the probability (?)
Forecast lead time
20






Change of forecast module coefficient for maximum
discharge of spring flood across the territory in
2003




















????????? ????????? ? 200
3
?.

21
Change in probability of forecast module
coefficients for values of maximum discharge of
spring flood across the territory in 2003 (in
per cent)




22
Thank You !
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