The Millennium Project

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• The Millennium Project
• American Council for the UN University

Planning Committee Meeting
February 14-15, 2001 Smithsonian
Institution Washington, D.C.
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AGENDA Wednesday 14 February 2001

• Recent accomplishments
• Briefing on recent research
• Peer review of Challenges
• State of the Future Index (SOFI)
• Future Issues of Science and Technology
• Analysis of the UN Summit Millennium Speeches
• Environmental Crime the International Criminal
  Court
• Global Partnership for Sustainable Development
• Environmental Security Scanning
• Futures Research Methods V.2
• Node Reports

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Agenda Thursday 15 February 2001

• Project Information System Improvements
• Project issues
• Objectives for 2001-2002 Program
• Nodes plans for next year
• Public Relations, Marketing, and Fund Raising
  Plans
• Review, action items, and conclusions
• Adjourn

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2000-2001 Financial Sponsors
Funding Support

• Deloitte Touche
• General Motors
• Hughes Space and Communications
• United Nations University
• U.S. Army Environmental Policy Institute
• U.S. Department of Energy

In Kind Support

• Smithsonian Institution
• The Futures Group International

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Recent Accomplishments

• State of the Future makes FSs best picks for
  2000
• Challenges for Humanity UN, US Senate
  distribution
• Translations of Projects reports
• UN Strategy Unit
• Science Attaches in planning process
• Explorations on Transnational Crime strategy
• Articles (AEPI, Foresight, FRQ, TFSC)
• Streaming Video
• Talks (China, Argentina, Japan, UNEP, Finland,
  AEPI, Forum 2000, WANGO)
• Project sales

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Sales in the year 2000
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Peer Review of Challenges

• New Questionnaire used with brief overviews of
  each of the 15 challenges
• On-going process until next publication of SOF
• 21 Reviews received thus far
• Nodes, MP staff, listserv selected reviewers
• General improvements but overall descriptions,
  actions, and regional views are well received
• Selected reviewers for more complete versions

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Future Issues of Science and Technology Study

• Purpose Obtain a broad range of
  international perspectives on the emerging issues
  and forces that are likely to influence the
  future of science and technology programs and
  their management

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Three-Year Sequence

• Year 1 What are the important future issues ?
• Year 2 What are the implications for management?
• Year 3 Create scenarios to make choices explicit.

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• Year 1 Study Flow

- Steering Committee for the Study -Science
Attachés Meeting
What are the most important ST
questions? Suggested actions/developments/answers
ST Panel Round 2
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• The Panel Was Highly Engaged

71 new questions were suggested (distilled to
19) 210 new actions/ developments/answers were
suggested to address the original 14 questions
Separate discussions were conducted on the
Millennium Projects Internet listserve
ltmillproj_at_hermes.circ.gwu.edugt People who were
late submitted anyway in hope their responses
would be included Requests were made to use the
material in other ways
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Create New Opportunities
Government Decision Makers
Future Issues of Science Technology
Private Corporate Decision Makers
Avoid Problems
Non-Science Culture
Public knowledge and understanding of ST
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Ratings of the Questions (importance globally, to
my country)

• The first seven most highly rated questions
• 1. What challenges can science pursue whose
  resolution would significantly improve the human
  condition? ( 4.47 4.04)
• 13. What potential catastrophes could change the
  world within the next 25 years which science
  might help to avoid? (4.14 3.70)
• 2. What future applications of science or
  scientific research have the greatest potential
  for danger to human survival? (4.08 3.62)
• 5. What will help bridge the ST gap between
  developed and developing countries? (4.06
  3.59)
• 3. What are the principal factors that will
  influence science over the next 25 years?
  (3.93 3.71)
• 6. What emerging technologies are likely to have
  the most positive economic impact over the next
  25 years? (3.92 3.96)
• 4. What are some seminal, key, or profound
  scientific developments that might occur during
  the next 25 years? (3.86 3.63)
• (Complete list on the hand-out)

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What challenges can science pursue whose
resolution would significantly improve the
human condition?

• Most highly rated developments/actions/answers
• 1C.Commercial availability of a cheap, efficient,
  environmentally benign, non-nuclear fission and
  non-fossil fuel means of generating base load
  electricity, competitive in price with today's
  fossil fuels.
• 1F. Simple, inexpensive, effective medicines and
  corresponding delivery systems to treat
  widespread diseases and epidemics.
• 1A. Improving the efficiency of water use in
  agriculture by 75.
• 1H. Climate change - understanding and solutions.
• 1B. Cheap, efficient, means for providing potable
  water from salt or brackish sources.
• Examples of Newly Suggested developments/actions/a
  nswers
• Developing strong, lightweight materials that do
  not corrode, are resistant to wear, and easy to
  recycle.
• Developing efficient, inexpensive (e.g.
  photochemical) process to produce hydrogen from
  water.
• Nanofiltering devices for water purification and
  recycling in households.
• Developing methods for enlarging human
  creativity.
• Reaching deeper understanding of the quantum
  foundations of physics.

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What catastrophes could change the world within
the next 25 years which science might help
avoid?

• Most highly rated developments/actions/answers
• 13A. Global epidemics, plagues, naturally caused
  or by human action such as an adverse genetic
  mutation.
• 13F. Economic meltdown - a major worldwide
  depression.
• 13G. Magnitude 9 or greater earthquake.
• 13C. Global war. (But not an old fashioned East
  vs. West war with battle lines rather a global
  terrorist war and rise in global crime as a form
  of war seems more likely)
• 13H. Breakdown of law and order worldwide.
• Examples of Newly Suggested developments/actions/a
  nswers
• Criminal terrorism.
• Major unprecedented migration of poor people to
  the affluent world.
• Fragmentation wars among some nations.
• Climate change induced crop failures, floods,
  droughts, sea level rise, and/or extinctions.
• Major changes in the intensity and direction of
  ocean currents, leading to abrupt climate
  changes.

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What future applications of science or scientific
research have the greatest potential for danger
to human survival?

• Most highly rated developments/actions/answers
• 2D. Accidentally - or intentionally - released
  genetically modified organisms that have
  serious adverse consequences for the biosphere.
• 2H. Use of biotechnology to build new kinds of
  biological weapons of mass destruction.
• 2G. Nanotechnology to build stealthy new means of
  killing large numbers of people.
• 2C. Intelligent Nanotechnology evolves beyond
  human control.
• 2E. Dissemination of information on potentially
  dangerous technologies via Internet.
• Examples of Newly Suggested developments/actions/a
  nswers
• Loss of biodiversity from exclusionary marketing
  for genetically altered, patented varieties.
• Widespread availability of tailored psychotropes
  (e.g. programmed dream pills)
• Human cloning
• Technological development of the less developed
  world to the consumption levels of the US.
• Use of Internet to promote drug use and other
  socially undesirable actions.

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What will help bridge the ST gap between
developed and developing countries?

• Most highly rated developments/actions/answers
• 5F. Education and training.
• 5B. Very low cost, multi-purpose, portable
  computer communications useful to the poor
  majority to begin to enter the education,
  economic, and health systems beyond their
  village.
• 5E. A new economics that effectively rewards
  innovation and work but distributes wealth more
  evenly.
• 5C. More flexible exchange programs that allow
  reciprocal residency and internships in research
  labs of other countries.
• 5A. Use of collaboratories for tele-science so
  that people can work as if they were in one lab
  even though they are in different locations
  around the world.
• Examples of Newly Suggested developments/actions/a
  nswers
• Breaking down the new iron curtain between North
  and South.
• If the pressure of overpopulation ends, many more
  countries will be able to afford (basic) science
  (like China, India, Brazil or Indonesia, etc.).
• Develop cassette colleges for developing world.
• Access to the chaotic jumble of fact,
  misinformation and lies on the Internet by all.
• Development of an effective all language
  simultaneous voice translation system.

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What are the principal factors that will
influence science over the next 25 years?

• Most highly rated developments/actions/answers
• 3F. Education and training of the science
  workforce.
• 3C. Economic contraction or collapse. (Science,
  more than other enterprises, depends on human
  beings having a relatively secure base to work
  from.)
• 3I. Scientific information exchange and
  institutional collaborations.
• 3A. Publicly visible scientific disasters or
  achievements significantly affecting public
  perspectives and thus funding.
• 3B. Public understanding of the relationship of
  science and technology to the emerging knowledge
  economy.
• Examples of Newly Suggested developments/actions/a
  nswers
• Increased corporate control of scientific
  research.
• Applications of breakthroughs of one discipline
  in other disciplines.
• Change in focus of interest (and funding) moving
  away from computing etc. to biological sciences.
• International sharing of major infrastructure.

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What emerging technologies are likely to have
the most positive economic impact over the
next 25 years?

• Most highly rated developments/actions/answers
• 6E. New, clean and inexpensive energy
  technologies
• 6A. Medicines derived from the knowledge founded
  in the Human Genome Project.
• 6D. Nanotechnologies.
• 6F. Genetically engineered products.
• 6C. Increased bandwidth capacity for multi-media
  communications for all Internet users at
  affordable price.
• Examples of Newly Suggested developments/actions/a
  nswers
• Precision agriculture.
• Much improved medical diagnostics and relatively
  inexpensive personal wearable and implant cable
  health monitors.
• New materials such as high-temperature
  superconductors and Buckyballs, biocompatible
  implants.
• Acceptable systems of energy generation by
  nuclear fission using advances in information
  technology for safety, operation, and monitoring
  and control of the nuclear waste stream by means
  such as transmutation, with acceptable means of
  waste storage.

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What are some seminal, key, or profound
scientific developments that might occur during
the next 25 years?

• Most highly rated developments/actions/answers
• 4H. Fusion or some other forms of cheap, abundant
  power with minimal adverse environmental
  consequences.
• 4D. Discovery of the underlying principle, "the
  final theory" that links quantum physics and
  relativity to explain the range of particles and
  forces that make up the universe.
• 4F. Computers that achieve awareness and can
  evolve.
• 4M. Capacity to build things cheaply and reliably
  by moving individual atoms and molecules.
• 4G. Self-replicating nano-robots or biochemical
  structures.
• Examples of Newly Suggested developments/actions/a
  nswers
• Remote microprobes that can be implanted in, or
  circulated through, living organisms or deployed
  in extreme environments, such as the depth of the
  Earth's crust to collect chemical and physical
  data continuously and relatively inexpensively.
• Human-computer symbiotics, such as implantable
  brain boosters, e.g. electro-bio-chemical
  processors with integrated random-access memories
  and telecommunication circuits.
• Capacity to simulate and experiment with the
  brain's neurological functional modules, to
  diagnose disorders and provide therapy for
  example Parkinson's, ALS etc.
• Reducing the cost of solar cell manufacture to
  less than 0.50 per watt.

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Priorities 4.1 What would be the best investment
in basic science for your country's future?

• Education
• Biotechnology, Biology, Genetics
• Computers, Information Systems
• Environment, Ecology
• Chemistry
• Physics, including Plasma and High Energy
• Energy
• Advanced material science
• Medicine, Health, life sciences
• Space Technology, Space Station

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Priorities 4.2 What would be the best investment
in applied science for your country's future?

• Biotechnology, Biology, Genetics
• Energy
• Education
• Environment, Ecology
• Computers, Information Systems
• Advanced material science
• Medicine, Health, life sciences
• Manufacturing, Productivity
• Nanotechnology
• Industry Cooperative Research

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Priorities 4.3 What would be the best investment
in technology for your country's future?

• Energy
• Computers, Information Systems
• Communications, Internet, Mobile
• Nanotechnology
• Biotechnology, Biology, Genetics
• Education
• Electronics
• Environment, Ecology
• Advanced material science
• Manufacturing, Productivity

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Priorities 4.4 What are your country's current
ST priorities?

• Biotechnology, Biology, Genetics
• Computers, Information Systems
• Communications, Internet, Mobile
• Advanced material science
• Environment, Ecology
• Military
• Medicine, Health, life sciences
• Transportation
• Agriculture and Food

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Priorities 4.5 What are the major ST challenges
important to your country that would (or do
already) benefit from an international
collaborative, interdisciplinary approach?

• Biotechnology, Biology, Genetics
• Medicine, Health, life sciences
• Education, Knowledge Transfer, ST Marshall Plan
• Space Technology, Space Station
• Computers, Information Systems
• Bi-lateral and multi-lateral programs
• Communications, Internet, Mobile
• Electronics
• Environment, Ecology

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Additional 71 questions suggested in Round 1
distilled to 19 by staff, then rated by the
Steering Committee

• How can science become a more important part of
  the decision process?
• What scientific developments could have the
  greatest impact on sustainability on earth even
  beyond 25 years?
• How can inter-disciplinary and multi-disciplinary
  research be strengthened and accelerated?
• How can the social economic impact of
  scientific research be evaluated?
• How can funding of ST be directed toward
  research which more directly addresses the global
  basic needs of humanity?

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Second Science Attachés Meeting

• Attachés appreciated involvement in the study
• Review categories in the National Priorities
  section
• Current Priorities may have been misinterpreted
  ask what priorities are increasing in importance
• Gov ST budget data available OECD, UNESCO
• Add nuclear conflict to answers under question
  13.
• Intro Rd 2 with short status report of the study
• Go for more depth shortening lists of 14 and 19
• Make the full text of Round 1 responses available

2. Use
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UN Millennium Summit Speeches
The largest gathering of world leaders in history
assembled at the United Nations September 6-9,
2000 to assess the challenges of the 21st century.

• 144 heads of State or Government
• 6 Deputy Ministers,
• 21 other Ministers
• 5 Vice-Presidents
• 1 Crown Price
• 10 chairpersons of delegations
• 10 observers
• 2 from civil society (Conferences of Presiding
  Officers of the National Parliaments and the
  Millennium Forum)

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UN Millennium Summit Speeches

• 63 Key Concepts Grouped into 6 Themes
• Globalization inevitable, Internet all, be
  careful
• Rich-poor gap open markets, create partnerships
• Peace and conflict Rapid response and prevention
• Human rights Implement Intl agreements
• UN reform expand SC, empower ECOSOC
• Environment Kyoto, nuclear waste, basis of SD
• Little ideological rancor
• Finland We know the facts. We know what we want.
  We know how to get it. All we need is the will to
  do it.

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UN Millennium Summit Speeches
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UN Millennium Summit Speeches
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Topic Stressed by Various Countries
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Comparison Between Richer and Poorer Countries
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Topics Most Often Mentioned by Poorer Countries
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Topics most often mentioned by Richer Countries
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Environmental Crimes in Military Actions and the
International Criminal Court

• ICC 139 signatories and 28 ratifications
• Documents, UN Interviews, Scenario Comments
• ICC action on mil/env-crimes extremely unlikely
  since environment is law on the ICC priorities
  and must meet all of these conditions
• most serious to the international community
• specifically intended, not collateral damage
• cause long-term and severe damage to the natural
  environment and clearly excessive to
  anticipated military gains
• no legal basis in criminals country to act
  (Complementary)

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Potential Env-Crimes in Military Actions and the
ICC

• Country X would not send troops unless they were
  exempt from any ICC prosecution
• A secret nuclear waste storage area is damaged
• Prosecute the officer in charge of the biological
  weapons storage area
• The major source of greenhouse gases refused to
  reduce its emissions
• Country X which has not ratified the ICC statute
  says it will not cooperate with a case against
  one of its military officers

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Environmental Security ScanningSome patterns and
questions

• Sovereignty - UN early warning response teams,
  ICC and war crimes, genetically modified foods
  and organisms, environmental conditions that
  affect public health, Bioagent Chips deployed
  to detect biological warfare attacks. Where
  should the nation-state end and the UN begin to
  address environmental problems?
• Worsening environment - forests, resources (fish,
  wet lands , water), greenhouse gases, and
  interaction of these. With water tables falling
  in all continents, and ethnic tensions on the
  rise, water pollution caused by one group
  affecting another could escalate more seriously
  than in the past. Putin abolishes Russias
  environmental protection agency.
• Environmental Accounting - value of
  environmental conditions
• Environmental Ministers ... we can ensure
  environmental security through early warning...
  raising environmental-security on global agenda.

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Futures Research Methods V.2

• Introduction Overview Environmental Scanning
• Participatory Methods Structural Analysis
• Delphi Systems and Modeling
• Decision Modeling Scenario Construction
• Trend Impact Analysis Cross-Impact Analysis
• Statistical Modeling Simulation-Gaming
• Futures Wheel Normative Forecasting
• Technological Sequence Analysis
• Relevance Trees and Morphological Analysis
• Genius Forecasting, Vision, and Intuition
• Method Frontiers and Integration

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Additional Chapters for FRM Version 2.0

• Science and Technology Roadmapping
• Field Anomaly Relaxation
• Godets tool box (Scenario, MIMAC, etc)
• Text Mining
• Summary of Non-linear Techniques Chaos Modeling
• Software additions for methods
• SOFI
• Others

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Discussion of Objectives for the 2001-2002
Program

• Publish State of the Future at the Millennium V
  2.0
• Publish Futures Research Methods CD-RO V 2.0
• Rd 2 and report on Future Issues of ST
• Yr 2 Future Issues of ST Management
  implications
• Complete Env-Crime the ICC
• Complete UN Millennium Summit Analysis
• Partnership for Sustainable Development report
• Complete SOFI paper, journal submission, and
  Delphi SOFI indicators for relative weights
• Continue work on data mining for futures,
  Starlight, others
• Nodes plans for next year