Climate Change Policy: A Role for Philanthropies Presented at Great Debates in Environmental Policy

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Climate Change Policy A Role for
PhilanthropiesPresented atGreat Debates in
Environmental Policy and PhilanthropyPhilanthropy
Roundtable4 October 2006

• Michael Oppenheimer
• Princeton University

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My focus today

• What is the current policy landscape?
• What may happen next in the policy arena?
• Which outcomes desirable, which not?
• Where do philanthropies have leverage?

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Where does science stand?

• Human-made climate change underway and measurable
• Warming will increase indefinitely, absent
  significant greenhouse-gas emissions reductions
• Long term risks are large Concern that key
  thresholds are near, but uncertainty is large
• Greenhouse gases have very long lifetimes
  crossing a threshold means locking in the
  consequences for a long, long time.

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Beyond the scientific community

• Public aware and concerned, if not engaged on
  urgency
• Policies, including regulation, are being
  implemented at all levels of government
• but insufficient to prevent continuous warming
• Gears are aligning a chance to solve the problem
  and get it right.

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Most Promising Development

• Governor Schwarzenegger is using the climate
  issue to increase his chances of re-election in a
  close campaign.
• ..Paraphrase, critic of recent
  California global warming legislation

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Meanwhile, Making Things Worse Atlantic City
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Policy Arena Whats Happening?

• States
• California regulations
• ---on ghgs from cars -30 vs 2002 fleet
  by 2016 beginning with 2009 model year
• ---state cap on industrial emissions 1990
  levels by 2020
• About 10 other states would follow Calif. rules
  if
• RGGI states -10 vs 1990 by 2018 on powerplants
• Planning, etc., in many other states

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Policy Arena

• International
• Kyoto implementation Potential for two-way
  emissions trading with California, RGGI, etc.
• Carbon markets
• Discussion of post-Kyoto agreement (developing
  countries?)

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Policy Arena

• Litigation
• Supreme Court is CO2 subject to CAA?
• (Mass vs EPA)
• Federal nuisance litigation (Conn vs. AEP)
• Calif vs 6 automakers for damages

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Policy Arena

• Inside the Beltway Current policy (voluntary,
  technology)
• Whats Next
  
  
• ?
• Mandatory program inevitable
• An effective program is NOT inevitable could be
  anything from comprehensive cap-and-trade to
  ineffective regulation combined with big
  technology subsidies
• Design matters even a comprehensive approach can
  run off the rails on the details.

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Alternative Futures

• I.
• Successful state-level action builds to a
  national program
• Implementation of federal, economy-wide cap plus
  smaller scale command and control and subsidy
  applied judiciously and where appropriate only
• International negotiations to build post-Kyoto
  regime, perhaps with limited US participation at
  first
• Eventually, US fully engaged in international
  framework, perhaps beginning with partnerships
  including India and China, et al.

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Or

• II.
• Litigation
• Trade sanctions
• Same outcome, but slower, less effective, more
  costly

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Efforts that fell short, mistakes to avoid

• Voluntary approaches, uncapped emissions market
  wont get close to solving the problem No bite
• Technology programs without regulation and/or
  picking winners is dangerous waste of time and
  money in the commercial arena
• --Synfuels
• --Much of nuclear past
• This is neither Manhattan nor Apollo!
• Ok for litigation to drive but not decide
  asbestos
• (Note similarities to Bush Administration plans)

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Past successes to learn from

• Title IV, US Clean Air Act 1990
• DoE research-regulation mix
• CAFE (fuel economy regulation)
• New York City water tunnel and water use
• Policy Pricing (or cap) plus long term view

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What activity is worth supporting?

• State-level public information/organization
  (regional national groups working together)
• Demonstration projects that help markets develop/
  helping firms anticipate future regulation
• Studies of regional impacts
• Organizing for federal legislation/ public
  education
• International Helping China et al build
  emissions reduction infrastructure
• Litigation
• Adaptation regional groups
• Academia How does technology advance?

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What to avoid

• Complex schemes with multiple objectives tax
  re-balance
• Direct funding for technologies
• Relying on high energy prices