Title: Scenarios, policies and impacts for the linked transport and energy systems Results of the European
1Scenarios, policies and impacts for the linked
transport and energy systems Results of the
European TRIAS project
- Wolfgang Schade and Nicki Helfrich, Fraunhofer
ISI, Germany - Michael Krail, IWW University of Karlsruhe,
Germany - Davide Fiorello and Francesca Fermi, TRT -
Trasporti e Territorio, Italy - Burkhard Schade, IPTS European Commission, Spain
2TRIAS model linkage for integrated assessment of
scenarios
POLES
Fossil fuel prices
Energy prices, Investments Trade in
primary energy sources, Subsidies, Carbon taxes
Transport energy demand, GDP development
BIOFUEL
Investments, Production, Biofuel price, Biofuel
share
Fuel demand
ASTRA
Large scale (Country results)
3Development of a technology database for
production pathways of biofuels and hydrogen
4Baseline scenario results
5Overview on TRIAS Baseline Trends time horizon
2050
6TRIAS transport demand baseline
Passenger transport demand
Freight transport demand
330
50
200
EU15
EU12
EU15
EU12
7World energy demand by region
8Transport fuel demand by type
9Policy scenario results
10List of policy scenarios
- Subsidies scenario to foster biofuels for
transport and excluding hydrogen (SUB-BIO) - Subsidies scenario to foster hydrogen for
transport and excluding biofuels (SUB-H2) - Carbon tax and subsidies scenarios to foster
biofuels for transport and excluding hydrogen
(CT-BIO) - Carbon tax and subsidies scenario to foster
hydrogen for transport and excluding biofuels
(CT-H2) - Combined carbon tax and subsidies scenario to
foster new technologies i.e. biofuels and H2
(COMBI) - On top of COMBI scenario
- First mover scenario for hydrogen use for
transport on top of combined scenario (FIRST) - Mandatory biofuels quotas on top of combined
scenario (QUOTA) - CO2 emission limits on top of combined scenario
(CO2-LIMIT)
11Impact on GDP compared to Baseline
12Impact on average cost by car compared to Baseline
13Summary of Scenario Results
Source TRIAS
14Sensitivity results
15Baseline structural change of the car fleet
- continued shift to diesel
- alternatives mainly CNG (short-term) and
bioethanol (medium-term)
16Sensitivity of vehicle fleet penetration rates
Medium-size gasoline car
17Conclusions
- With moderate scenarios in TRIAS new technologies
(i.e. biofuels, hydrogen) will only slowly enter
the market. - Continuous significant policy support and high
oil prices will speed up market penetration of
new technologies. - In general, the economic impact of policies
supporting new technologies would be positive due
to investment stimulus and reduced fossil fuel
imports. - Sensitivity analysis reveals a wide range of
potential future compositions of the car fleet,
and thus energy demand structure. - Results should be reconsidered with higher oil
prices and lower costs of electric vehicles due
to recent technical progress of the battery
technology.
18Thank you for your attention!
Further information TRIAS website
http//www.isi.fhg.de/TRIAS This work is
continued in the iTREN-2030 project. iTREN-2030
website http//www.isi.fhg.de/projects/iTREN-2030
/
Institute for Economic Policy Research University
of Karlsruhe, Germany
IWW
Trasporti e Territorio Milan, Italy
TRT
IPTS
19Optional
20TRIAS demographic baseline ageing society
21Development of oil supplier regions for EU
2020
2030
2040
2050
22Linkage and iterations between ASTRA-POLES-BIOFUEL
- 13 iterations to achieve stable baseline
- On average 5 iterations to achieve stable
scenarios
23Elements of the scenario specification
- Subsidies are either adapted to follow paths for
introduction of new technologies of other
projects or to receive expected results from the
models e.g. in quota scenario the biofuels quotas
have to be achieved - Carbon taxes increase from zero in 2010 to 30 /t
CO2 in 2030 and afterwards remain constant. - All policies stimulate additional investment. The
stronger the stimulus for investment the more
positive is the longer-term impact on the
economy. Depending on the policy additional
investments may occur in - plants to produce biofuels,
- plants and infrastructure to produce and
distribute hydrogen, - RD and manufacturing plants for new type of
vehicles (e.g. bioethanol, hydrogen) or
improvements of existing technologies (e.g.
efficiency of gasoline vehicles to cope with CO2
emission limits). - All additional investments are counterfinanced
somewhere in the economic system. - Counterfinancing of additional investments by
carbon taxes or government subsidies (affecting
government debt) leads only to minor cost
increases and thus has limited dampening impacts.
- Imports of fossil fuels can be reduced improving
the trade balance of the European countries. - In first mover scenario additional exports of
hydrogen vehicles stimulate the economy, as
Europe becomes the technology leader and due to
this competitive advantage increases its exports
of such vehicles to other parts of the world.