Zbigniew Klimont International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

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• Zbigniew Klimont International Institute for
  Applied Systems Analysis

EC4MACSEuropean Consortium for Modelling of Air
Pollution and Climate Strategies Update
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Contents

• EC4MACS background
• EC4MACS workplan
• EC4MACS recent achievements and next steps
• EC4MACS NIAM
• NEC Directive review update

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Background

• The European Commission envisages for 2011/12 a
  review and revisions of their air quality
  legislation and the European Climate Change
  Programme. Model analyses can make useful
  contributions for these reviews.
• The consistency of EU policies in different
  fields are of increasing concern.
• EC4MACS provides institutional funding to a
  consortium of key modelling teams to have
  modelling tools technically ready and accepted by
  stakeholders for policy applications.

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Objectives

• Providing scientific and economic analyes for the
  revision of the EU Thematic Strategy on Air and
  the European Climate Change Programme (ECCP)
• Improvement of existing models by including
  recent scientific findings.
• Update of input data
• Accceptance of modelling tools and input data by
  stakeholders
• Make modelling tools available to the public over
  the Internet.

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Partners

• IIASA (AT) Coordinator, integrated assessment
• MNP/RIVM (NL) - Modelling of environmental
  impacts
• NTUA Athens (GR) Energy projections
• Uni Bonn, EuroCare (DE) Agricultural
  projections
• LUATh Thessaloniki (GR) Transport modelling
• Mike Holland, AEAT, Metroeconomica (UK)
  Economic benefit analysis
• (MET.NO (NO) Modelling of atmospheric chemistry
  and transport)
• JRC-Ispra
• JRC-Sevilla

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The EC4MACS model system
Global/hemispheric boundary conditions
European policy drivers
Cost-effectiveness
Impacts
TREMOVE
Transport
GAINS
POLES
PRIMES
Energy
GEM-E3
CAPRI
Agriculture
EU-FASOM, DNDC
Land use
CCE-CL
Ecosystems
BENEFITS
TM5
EMEP
Atmosphere
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General work plan

• 2007
• Methodological improvements
• 2008
• Data collection
• Feedbacks on methodological improvements
• 2009
• Interim assessment
• Methodology workshop
• 2010
• Uncertainty assessment
• Bilateral consultations on input data
• Stakeholder workshop on baseline projections
• 2011
• Final assessment

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Recent achievements - GAINS

• Interface with PRIMES, numerous scenarios have
  been exchanged for the Commissions burden
  sharing proposal, the CCS study and the NEC
  revision (including the PRIMES 2007 baseline
  scenario)
• GAINS provided cost curves for non-CO2 gases for
  the January 2008 Climate and Energy Package of
  the Commission, and assessed co-benefits on air
  pollution
• Optimization analyses for the NEC revision based
  on the burden sharing energy projection.
  Commission will use this for NEC proposal in June
  2008

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Achievements for EC4MACS

• Database, policy representation, parameterisation
  updated for EU27 Western Balkan Turkey
• Improved description of N Cycle inherited from
  earlier projects (Ammonia, JRC-Ispra
  collaboration)
• Prepared for modelling of biofuels demand shocks,
  but
• No trade in fuels (ethanol, bio-diesel)
• Shares of feed stocks demand shock exogenous
• Update of international database is under way
• Need to update FAOSTAT1 with FAOSTAT2 AGLINK

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DEVELOPMENTS IN 2007 - PRIMES
December 09

• Full update of the model database
• Energy balances statistics, energy prices and
  taxes, economic activity statistics
• New plant level data for the power plants
• Similar data collection took place for other
  sectors
• Information about current policies and measures
• Update of the technological and economic
  projections about the future evolution of new
  energy technologies in all domains
• Update of resources and renewable potential
  information disaggregated per source and Member
  State
• Including data on possibilities for CO2
  geological storage

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DEVELOPMENTS IN 2007 - PRIMES
December 09

• New Baseline scenario constructed
• Very important as it is considered as a reference
  projection against which all alternative policy
  projections are compared to in order to draw
  impact assessment conclusions
• Model calibration to reproduce years 2000 and
  2005
• The final Baseline was ready by the end of Nov
  2007
• Detailed report will be available by the end of
  April 2008
• The new Baseline has been extensively used to
  analyze the effects of the announced Commission
  targets for 2020
• Improved interface of PRIMES and GAINS models

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GHG balance of rapeseed cultivation
kg CO2-eq ha-1
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Tasks for 2008

• Produce interim documentation on methodologies
• Start consultation on methodology over the
  Internet
• Harmonize C/N cycle and agricultural modelling
  approaches
• Link to global scale (with JRCs)

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AN OUTLOOK INTO 2008 ACTIVITIES - PRIMES
December 09

• Evaluation of alternative policy assumptions on
  the evolution of the energy system
• The detailed definition of scenarios will be
  decided in close interaction with DG-ENV and the
  EC4MACS steering group
• A first set of tentative alternative policy
  scenarios has been already prepared
• Scenarios exploring the range of different burden
  sharing targets per Member State
• Specific scenarios exploring the possibility of
  CCS technology deployment

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Questions that could help to improve GAINS

• Are direct N2O emissions really linearly
  dependent on N-input?
• Will the Nitrate Directive have an effect on N2O
  emissions?
• Which impacts can be expected from changing
  production technologies/agronomic optimizations?
• Do we need extra-emission factors for organic
  farming?
• What is the cost-efficiency of precision farming?

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Three questions to NIAM

• How can EC4MACS improve the communication with
  national modelling teams?
• Which information from EC4MACS would be useful
  for national modelling teams?
• Which information could be provided by national
  modelling teams to be included in the Europe-wide
  analysis?

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Interaction with national modelling teams

• Information that could be offered
• GAINS is accessible available on the Internet,
  all data can be freely downloaded
• National versions of GAINS possible
• Most useful information from national teams
• Implementation of current emission control
  legislation
• Energy projections coherent with national climate
  policy
• Under EC4MACS, bilateral consultations foreseen
  for 2010.

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Possible interactions with national teams

• Farm practice/management (NitroEurope-IP crop
  rotations timing of operations ...)
• Detailed land use maps (e.g. commune-level for
  validation of our agri-maps)

• Regionalized emission factors for Nr/GHG fluxes
  from agricultural soils

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Different approaches for national GAINS
implementations

• The Italian way
• Provinces as separate emission source regions
• Province-to-grid transfer matrices
• Software hosted locally, only limited update
• The Dutch way
• Entire country as one source region (as in
  GAINS-Europe)
• Sector-to-grid transfer matrices
• Software hosted at IIASA server (but with
  restricted access), regularly updated
• Fully integrated into GAINS-Europe

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State of play of the revision of the EU NEC
Directive

• Markus Amann (IIASA)
• based on input from Ger Klaassen and Andre Zuber
  (EC)

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State of play

• DG-ENV has started Inter-Service consultations
• Commissions agreement planned for July 2008
• No further stakeholder involvement before
  publication of final Commissions proposal
• Once agreed, NEC6 report and scenario details on
  GAINS internet will be released

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Assumptions on economic drivers for NEC
optimization

• Economic development and energy policy as in
  PRIMES Nov 2007 baseline
• Energy projection (developed with PRIMES) is
  compliant with Climate and Energy package.
• Flexible instruments to cut-off domestic measures
  at 30/t CO2
• Assuming trading of renewable energy permits
  among Member States
• Results in -12 CO2 in 2020 in the EU-27
• National projections of agricultural activities
  as used before

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Primary energy consumption in EU-272000 and
projections for 2020
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Environmental improvements and emission
reductions, central case, EU-27, 2020
Environmental improvements
Emission reductions
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Emission control costs for additional measures
on per-capita basis (/person/yr)
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GDP/capita2000 and 2020
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Air pollution control costs 2020on top of
current policy
Costs as of GDP per Member State
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Trade-off between efficiency and equityIncrease
in total costs if GDP-related costs in each MS
limited
Costs as of GDP per Member State
Costs for EU-27
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Trade-off between efficiency and equityIncrease
in total costs if GDP-related costs in each MS
limited
Costs as of GDP per Member State
Costs for EU-27
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Trade-off between efficiency and equityIncrease
in total costs if GDP-related costs in each MS
limited
Costs as of GDP per Member State
Costs for EU-27
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Sensitivity cases

• Without Climate and Energy Package (i.e., for
  PRIMES 2007 baseline)
• Without trading of renewable energy
• With full implementation of Nitrates Directive
• For alternative health impact hypothesis (primary
  PM only)
• For higher environmental ambition level (as
  suggested by European Parliament)

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EU-27 emissions of the sensitivity casesrelative
to 2000
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SO2 reductionsfor the central and the
sensitivity cases
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NOx reductionsfor the central and the
sensitivity cases
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PM2.5 reductionsfor the central and the
sensitivity cases
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NH3 reductionsfor the central and the
sensitivity cases
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Conclusions

• While final decision on NECs not yet taken within
  the Commission, NEC proposal will be coherent
  with Climate and Energy package
• Proposed emission reductions are in safe distance
  to MRR
• Sensitivity cases suggest robustness against
  (reasonable) changes in major exogenous policy
  assumptions
• Full documentation will be released after
  publication of the final Commission proposal