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Title: New Energy Externalities Development for Sustainability Final Conference "External costs of energy t


1
New Energy Externalities Development for
Sustainability Final Conference "External costs
of energy technologies"
The NEEDS TIMES Pan EU modelling platform and
main results of scenario analysis
Vincenzo Cuomo Markus Blesl, Denise Van
Regemorter RS2a Modelling Pan European Policy
scenarios Brussels, February 17-th, 2009
2
Main objectives
  • Developing a new modelling framework for the EU
    as a whole, especially its multi-country aspect
    with trade exchanges among countries
  • Contributing to policy evaluation through
  • Integration of different objectives in one global
    modelling environment, allowing to evaluate their
    mutual interactions
  • Evaluation of the optimal mix of options to reach
    severe energy-environmental targets
  • Assessment of the structural changes in the
    energy system and the role of technologies in
    different boundary conditions
  • Assessment of the role of external costs in the
    definition of policy strategies
  • Scenario analysis for the evaluation of key EU
    targets

3
Interactions among RSs

SOCIO-ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENTAL SCENARIOS
INITIAL TECHNICAL DATA (RS2a input from Other
Streams)
LIFE CYCLE DATA (RS1a)
EXTERNALITIES (RS1b, RS1c)
TECHNOLOGY DATABASE (ALL STREAMS)
COHERENT ENERGY-TECHNOLOGY TRADE PATHWAYS
(RS2a)
OTHER INDICATORS, SOCIAL ACCEPTANCE, MCDA (RS2b)
4
Modelling Pan European Energy Scenarios
Key aspects Main EU Directives Stakeholder
preferences Country level detail
5
A common integrated structure
NEEDS Project
  • The NEEDS modelling platform

LCA of the most relevant power supply options
  • Based on the TIMES multi-period linear
    optimization models generator
  • Common structure of country models (RES-Reference
    Energy System)
  • Common sources for the main data (energy
    balances, material flows, air emissions)

Energy system models of 30 EU countries (EU27,
CH, IS, NO)
Technology Database (inv cost, oper cost,
efficiency, ...)
Pan European Model
  • Externalities of technologies for the production,
    transport, transformation and consumption of
    energy

The NEEDS TIMES PEM represents the reference
modelling platform for several outreach
projects/proposals in the framework of EU Programs
6
The TIMES models generator
  • Partial Equilibrium model
  • Maximisation of the consumer/producer surplus
  • Supply and demand quantities equilibrate through
    prices changes
  • Perfect foresight
  • Long term time horizon, to support the definition
    of long term strategies, taking into account
    different standards of energy devices, technology
    development and policy targets
  • High technological detail in energy supply and
    end-use sectors (both existing and future
    technologies), potential of fossil and renewable
    resources by country, resulting in a data
    intensive model
  • Approach based on full energy costs along the
    life-time of technologies and within the time
    horizon, i.e. including LCA components and
    external costs
  • Normative perspective, focussed on the
    development needed under a policy scenario

7
The modelling tools
  • - A set of data files, the templates, that fully
    describe the energy system (technologies,
    commodities, resources and reference demands for
    energy services) in a format compatible with the
    associated model generator.
  • - The TIMES model generator, written in GAMS that
    processes the data files, generates the matrix
    that specifies the mathematical programming
    problem, solves the mathematical programming and
    post-processes the optimization results.
  • - The VEDA"shell", a user interface for creating
    and managing the data input, running the model
    generator, and analysing results.
  • The structure of the PEM is similar to the
    country models one but with some additional set
    of data files
  • Further Scenario Files.
  • Additional Data Dictionary (DD) files for
    specifying further technical features and
    constraints.

8
The country models
  • Country models based on a common structure (RES)
  • Supply
  • Reserves, resources, exploration and conversion
  • Country specific renewable potential and
    availability
  • Electricity and Heat production
  • Public electricity plants
  • CHP plants and heating plants
  • Industry
  • Energy intensive industry
  • Other industries
  • Residential and Commercial
  • All end use demand
  • Transport
  • Different transport modes
  • Geographical coverage
  • 30 European countries (EU 27 Iceland, Norway
    and Switzerland)
  • Time horizon
  • 2000-2050
  • Energy carriers included
  • (Eurostat, 2005) energy balances, with some
    aggregations
  • Materials explicitly modelled
  • Only those flows whose production requires much
    more energy or which are important for the
    production processes (e.g. scrap steel).
  • Pollutants included
  • GHG (CO2,CH4,N2O,SF6)
  • LAP (SO2,NOx,CO,NMVOC,PM2.5,PM10)

The Iron and Steel industry RES
9
The technology database
  • A basic but fairly complete set of technologies
    and processes (existing and future) was carried
    out and included into the models data input for
    analysing technology development on the time
    horizon and performing scenario analysis.
  • It includes a default set of technological and
    economical parameters and additional information
    on LCA and ExternE data, collected into a format
    suitable to be converted into a model
    user-interface ready format and available for
    direct import into the models
  • Sectors considered
  • Upstream (172)
  • Heat and Electricity generation (124)
  • Industry (223)
  • Residential and Commercial (504)
  • Transport (53)

10
The Pan European TIMES model
  • It is more than the sum of the 30 national
    models
  • A multi-region approach at Pan EU level
    integrates the single EU countries energy models
  • representation of the main energy exchanges
    between EU countries and also with non EU
    countries,
  • Electricity trades are modeled via trade
    technologies
  • it allows to reflect links and to impose
    constraints at the European level, reflecting the
    coordination of policies across borders and,
    consequently, the harmonisation of the underlying
    country models features and assumptions.

The NEEDS-TIMES modelling platform allows to
performing a more effective policy analyses both
on country level and in a EU wide perspective
enabling the definition of cross country
constraints.
11
Main outputs
  • Optimal energy-technology pathways by scenario
  • Marginal costs of CO2 and resources
  • Mix of fuels and technologies in electricity
    production and end-use sectors
  • Emission pathways by scenario
  • Long-term Oil and Gas demands by each EU country,
    by scenario
  • The implemented modeling platform has a built in
    flexibility and distinguishes clearly the
    exogenous parameters from the endogenous
    variables.
  • These features make it an effective tool to
    analyse the effects of different policy
    alternatives and to perform a sensitivity
    analysis of solutions

12
The NEEDS Reference Scenario
The reference scenario describes the development
of the EU-27 energy system in agreement with most
of present policies and the latest DG TREN
projections. Main assumptions - Business as
usual trend of all exogenous assumptions around
drivers, energy prices and policies, as derived
with the help of the general equilibrium model
GEM-E3 (EU22 countries), and macroeconomic and
energy price background assumptions in line with
the DG TREN 2005 projections. - No limits on CO2
emissions a specific climate policy allowing for
a proper evaluation of Kyoto and post Kyoto
targets was not considered, instead a tax of 10
Euro/ton for CO2 was applied. - Use of renewable
energies, in line with national policies aimed to
promoting their utilization. - Implementation of
country decisions as concerns nuclear. In
particular, nuclear phase out was considered in
countries with corresponding aims or agreements
(Germany, Netherlands, Belgium and Sweden).
13
The NEEDS Scenarios
The baseline results indicate that EU needs
policies to control carbon emissions and to
become less dependent on oil and gas imports.
Thus, the following scenarios were defined in
agreement with stakeholders
14
New frontiers opened by the NEEDS modelling
platform
  • The NEEDS modelling platform constitutes an
    integrated tool for the analysis of the EU as
    well as national energy systems, evaluating the
    effectiveness of different policy instruments and
    their long term impact in terms of energy and
    technology mix, emissions and costs.
  • A tool for supporting stakeholders decisions, in
    order to evaluating
  • The impact of targeted air quality EU policies
    (emissions standards) on emissions, costs and
    climate change
  • The full costs and benefits of EU Directives that
    have an impact on the energy system
  • The impact of different Post Kyoto strategies on
    the future of energy technologies
  • The impact of alternative internalisation
    policies and their contribution to sustainability
  • The technologies and policies that exhibit the
    most robust behaviour in an overall
    sustainability perspective

15
Further modelling improvements
  • Integration of additional sustainability criteria
    in models in order to more fully analyse
    sustainability of energy systems
  • Integration with risk analysis
  • Integration with other models covering the rest
    of the economy and more social aspects
  • Use of multi-attribute optimization techniques
    combined with decision making analyses, to
    elaborate a compromise between the policy targets
    and the preference of EU stakeholders.

16
Future perspectives and recommendations
  • The TIMES NEEDS Pan EU modelling platform is now
    available and allows exploiting synergies and
    trade-offs for climate, local environments and
    energy systems
  • It should be maintained and updated to be applied
    in new studies for policy analyses

17
Current E.U. sponsored Projects Proposalsusing
Pan-EU TIMES models
  • The set up of the NEEDS TIMES models pave the way
    for the development of a wide range of possible
    applications and have fostered a number of
    outreach initiatives among which
  • Contribution to EU and national policy analysis
    (e.g. Ministry of Environment of in Estonia GHG
    reporting Template, IEA/ETO ETP2008 report
  • New research projects (VII FP, IEE)
  • RES2020 2007-2009 Focus on renewable energy for
    EU at horizon 2020 and beyond
  • PLANETS 2008-2010 Focus on advances on how to
    deal with uncertainty in global and EU Climate
    Policies
  • REACCESS 2008-2010 Focus on Security of Energy
    Supply for EU at horizon 2050
  • REALISEGRID 2008-2010 Focus on Intra-EU (
    Balkans) Electricity Exchanges and Infrastructure

18
Presentations of policy scenario results will
be given by
  • Markus Blesl (IER,University of Stuttgart)
  • Denise Van Regemorter (CES,Katholieke
    Universiteit Leuven)
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