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Real Time Cost Impact Assessment of Composite and Metallic Design Alternatives

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Composites and metallic DFM analysis of SUV Fender. Considers 3 options: Fabrication of steel fender. Fabrication of aluminium fender ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Real Time Cost Impact Assessment of Composite and Metallic Design Alternatives


1
Real Time Cost Impact Assessment of Composite and
Metallic Design Alternatives
  • Dr. Christopher Rush
  • Joe Falque
  • Karen McRitchie

2
Overview
  • Introduction
  • Composite Structures New Challenges
  • Background and Related Research
  • Cost Estimating Challenges, Parametric Cost
    Modeling
  • Design for Manufacture and SEER-DFM
  • SEER-DFM Examples
  • Analysis of Transmission Servo Piston
  • Composite and Metallic DFM analysis of SUV Fender
  • Summary and Conclusions

3
Objective
  • Introduce the SEER-DFM cost model methodology for
    developing composite and metallic cost trade
    study analyses

4
Introduction
  • Composite technology is evolving
  • Engineers are less familiar with composite
    structures and processes compared to traditional
    metallic processes
  • Presents new set of design and cost modeling
    challenges
  • Cost Commitment (see next slide)
  • Composite Affordability Initiative (CAI) sought
    to address these issues
  • SEER-DFM embodies 30 composite processes along
    side 70 more traditional manufacturing processes
  • Provides a framework to perform real time cost
    trade studies

5
Cost Commitment
  • 70 - 80 of product cost is committed during
    product concept phases
  • Most cost incurred during production phases
  • Scope for cost reduction reduces in product phase

6
Background and Related Research
  • Cost Estimating Challenges
  • Limited amount of data during development phases,
    high uncertainty and expected error
  • Accounting for technology changes
  • Requirements to show how cost estimates were
    derived
  • risks, assumptions, uncertainty
  • Estimates need to follow a consistent reliable
    process

7
Background and Related Research
  • Parametric Cost Modeling
  • Dates back to the 1950s
  • introduced by the RAND Corporation for the US Air
    Force
  • widely used by Government and Industry
  • Uses historical samples to establish
    relationships
  • Uses the past to predict the future
  • Sometimes called Statistical Estimating
  • Linear regression most popular simplest
    technique y a b(x)
  • Typically used during the product development
    stages
  • Reduces time required to produce estimates

8
Background and Related Research
  • Cost estimating relationship example

9
Design for Manufacture and SEER-DFM
  • Design for manufacture (DFM)
  • Practice of designing with manufacturing in mind
  • Emphasis on multidisciplinary teams, supersedes
    sequential product development process

10
Design for Manufacture and SEER-DFM
  • Integrated product teams reduce the likelihood of
    costly engineering changes

11
Design for Manufacture and SEER-DFM
  • DFM saves companies money

Savings
Respondents
12
Design for Manufacture and SEER-DFM
  • Process based parametric cost modeling
  • Applies the parametric concept to manufacturing
    processes

Finishing Air Gun Spray Thermal Spray
Electrostatic Vacuum Metalize Dip
Chromate/Phosphate Electrocoat Electroplate
Brush Electrical Assembly Cable
Harness Mechanical Assembly Fasteners
Riveting/Staking Gas Flame Welding Arc, MIG,
TIG Welding Electron Beam Welding Spot Welding
Brazing Adhesive Bonding Mold/Cast/Forge Injecti
on Molding Rotational Molding Thermoform
Molding Sand Casting Die Casting Investment
Casting Forging Powdered Metals
Machining Conventional High Speed Milling
Shaping Turning Boring Grinding Screw
Machining EDMing Drilling Reaming Tapping
Sawing Broaching Gear Hobbing Deburring
Coring Fabrication Shears-Brakes Punches CNC
Turret Laser Cut Gas Flame Cut Plasma Arc Cut
Dedicated tool Die Progressive Die Spin
Forming Tube Bending Plate Roll
Bending Composites Layup Filament Winding
Pulltrusion Composite Spray PC Board
Assembly Board Fabrication PCB Assembly/Solder
13
Design for Manufacture and SEER-DFM
  • Extended CAI Processes

14
Design for Manufacture and SEER-DFM
  • Process based parametric cost modeling
  • When integrated with the design process cost
    becomes an optimization variable
  • Perform real time cost trade studies during
    design process

15
SEER-DFM Case Studies
  • DFM Analysis of Transmission Servo Piston
  • Study goals
  • Ascertain manufacturing costs
  • Evaluate tradeoffs using DFM principles
  • Study began with a rough sketch
  • Processes modeled using work elements e.g.
    machining, fabrication, and assembly
  • Part modeled by creating a work breakdown
    structure

16
SEER-DFM Case Studies
  • Describe major components of transmission servo
    piston, and their assembly
  • Describe each component with respect to the
    people, product, and processes required to
    manufacture and/or assemble it
  • Reduce data input with knowledge bases
  • Pre defined templates of inputs

17
SEER-DFM Case Studies
  • Output estimate results using charts and reports
  • Reports and charts illustrate that most cost is
    related to machining labor

18
SEER-DFM Case Studies
  • Alert function suggests
  • consider casting instead of raw stock
  • reduce part count consolidate
  • Change parameter detail inputs for real time cost
    impact assessment
  • Including spring retainer as part of the casting
    more complex cast, but reduced assembly cost

19
SEER-DFM Case Studies
  • Composites and metallic DFM analysis of SUV Fender
  • Considers 3 options
  • Fabrication of steel fender
  • Fabrication of aluminium fender
  • Composite manufacture using P4 process and RTM
    curing
  • Assumptions
  • 180,000 production run
  • Manufacturing labor rate US100
  • Assembly labor rate US75

20
SEER-DFM Case Studies
  • P4 (Programmable Powdered Preform Process)
  • Developed for automotive
  • GM use P4 to cost effectively manufacture
    Silverado truck cargo
  • Process time 4 minutes

21
SEER-DFM Case Studies
  • Spray cut fibres and powdered binder on to a
    preformed, perforated screen tool
  • Vacuum and chopper head pressure ensure uniform
    layup thickness
  • Hot air is blown through a consolidation tool to
    melt the powdered binder on the preform
  • Preform is then ready for resin infusion - RTM

22
SEER-DFM Case Studies
  • P4 parameter inputs RTM inputs

23
SEER-DFM Case Studies
  • Trade off analysis
  • P4 process reduces time by 50
  • P4 process reduces labor cost by 36
  • Reduced material costs
  • 45 compared to aluminium
  • 2 compared to steel
  • Reduced total cost
  • 42 compared to aluminium
  • 21 compared to steel
  • Despite increased P4 tooling cost per unit
  • Effect on bottom line
  • Total savings 553,264

24
SEER-DFM Case Studies
  • Estimate Probability
  • All estimates have a degree of uncertainty
  • Model uncertainty using least, likely, most
    inputs
  • Output a range of possibilities for management
    decisions

25
Summary and Conclusions
  • Introduced a process based parametric cost model
    methodology
  • Cost model integrates cost as design variable
  • Perform numerous real time cost impact
    assessments
  • Achieve optimum design through informed DFM
    decisions
  • Methodology is used to assess cost impact of
    composite and metallic design options

26
Contact Details
  • Christopher Rush
  • Galorath Incorporated100 N Sepulveda Blvd, Suite
    1801El Segundo, CA 90245
  • Tel 310 414 3222
  • Email CRush_at_Galorath.com
  • Website www.galorath.com
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