Fundamentals of Political Science

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Fundamentals of Political Science

• Dr. Sujian Guo
• Professor of Political Science
• San Francisco State Unversity
• Email sguo_at_sfsu.edu
• http//bss.sfsu.edu/sguo

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Central Questions

• How the Third Wave democratization happened?
• How could such similar outcomes emerge from such
  a diversity of national and regional situations?
• What are the patterns of transition processes or
  the routes of change from country to country,
  from region to region?
• Do these diverse routes or modes of transition
  have significance for the stability of democratic
  regimes and for the democratic consolidation?

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Modes of Transition
categorized by leading scholars
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Huntingtons Three Ideal-types

• Transformation occurred when the elites in power
  took the lead in bringing about democratic
  transition.
• Replacement occurred when opposition groups took
  the lead in bringing about democratic transition,
  and the old regime collapsed or was overthrown.
• Transplacement occurred when democratic
  transition resulted largely from joint action by
  elites in power and opposition elites.
  (Huntington, p. 114)

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Terry Lynn Karl and Philippe C. Schmitter

• Four modes of transition
• Pact occurred when elites agree upon a
  multilateral compromise among themselves to bring
  about the transition.
• Imposition occurred when elites use force
  unilaterally and effectively to bring about a
  regime change against the resistance of
  incumbents.
• Reform occurred when masses mobilize from below
  and impose a compromised outcome without
  resorting to violence.
• Revolution occurred when masses rise up from
  below and defeat the previous rulers.
  (Karl/Schmitter, p. 275)

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Major actors in regime transition

• In the government
• standpatters (hard-liners)
• liberal reformers (soft-liners or moderates)
• democratic reformers (radicals)
• In the opposition
• democratic moderates
• revolutionary radicals

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The Balance of Power
The balance of power or the relative power of
the groups shaped the nature of the transition
process and often changed during that process. If
standpatters dominated the government and
radicals in the opposition, democratic transition
was impossible. Democratic transition was
facilitated if pro-democratic groups were
dominant in both the government and opposition.
The strategic interaction between these groups is
therefore of central importance in the transition
process.
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Major features of modes of transition(Huntington)

• Transformation
• Regime-led reform, regime-initiated
  liberalization, or change from above are all
  the terms to describe the central feature of this
  mode of transition. In transformations
• the government is stronger than opposition and
  has the power and capacity to move their
  countries toward democracy
• the relative power of reformers is stronger than
  that of standpatters in order for the
  transformation to occur and
• those in power are willing to take the lead and
  play the decisive role in ending that regime and
  changing it into a democratic system. Spain,
  Brazil, Taiwan, USSR, Hungary, and Bulgaria are
  all the typical cases of change from above
  regime-led transformation.

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Major features of modes of transition(Huntington)

• Replacements
• Opposition-led overthrow or change from below
  are often the terms to describe the central
  feature of this mode of transition. In
  replacements
• reformers within the regime are weak or
  nonexistent while standpatters are dominant in
  government and strongly opposed to regime change
  
• since the possibility of initiating reform from
  above was almost totally absent, democratic
  transition consequently resulted from the
  opposition gaining strength and the government
  losing strength until the government collapsed or
  was overthrown
• the involvement and support from public masses is
  another necessary condition for the transition
• the unwillingness of the military to defend the
  old regime is crucial in ending the old regime.
  Only a few cases of replacements or change from
  below are available by 1990 Portugal, Greece,
  Argentina, Philippines, Romania, and East Germany.

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Major features of modes of transition(Huntington)

• Transplacements
• Pact, negotiated transition or compromise
  are often the terms to describe the central
  feature of this mode of transition. Democratic
  transition is produced by the combined actions of
  government and opposition. In transplacements
• (1) within the government the balance of power
  between standpatters and reformers is such that
  the government is willing to negotiate a change
  of regime, but unwilling to initiate a change of
  regime usually it has to be pushed and pulled
  into formal or informal negotiations with the
  opposition.
• (2) Within the opposition democratic moderates
  are strong enough to prevail over revolutionary
  radicals or extremists, but they are not strong
  enough to overthrow the government.
• (3) Both government and opposition must recognize
  their incapability of unilaterally determine the
  future and see virtues in negotiation.

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Major features of modes of transition(Huntington)

• Transplacement (continued)
• (4) The incumbents or the ruling elites must be
  able to see their interests protected and secured
  in the foreseeable regime change, at least not
  threatened by the change of regime, and thus
  willing to negotiate with the opposition and take
  such a strategic choice.
• (5) The government must recognize that the costs
  of constant suppression, nontolerance, and
  nonnegotiation are too high or unbearable in
  terms of increased repression leading to further
  alienation of social groups from the government,
  intensified conflicts within the ruling coalition
  leading to self-destruction, increased
  possibility of a hard-line takeover of the
  government, and significant losses in
  international legitimacy.
• (6) The political process leading to
  transplacement was thus often marked by a hauling
  back and forth of strikes, protests, and
  demonstrations, on the one hand, and repression,
  police violence, martial laws, on the other.
  Cycles of protests and repression eventually led
  to negotiated agreements between government and
  opposition in all cases such as Poland,
  Czechoslovakia, Mongolia, Nicaragua, Uruguay,
  Bolivia, Honduras, El Salvador, Korea, and South
  Africa.

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Some generalizations (Karl/Schmitter, pp.
277-282, Munck/Leff, p.345)

• Revolutions have become less frequent and less
  likely to give rise to a stable democracy. Many
  of Latin American and Asian countries are good
  examples. Revolutions may produce enduring
  patterns of domination by certain elite groups or
  social classes, without leading to democracy.
  Russia in 1917, Mexico in 1929, China in 1949,
  and Cuba in 1959 are all good examples in modern
  history.
• No global generalization is available. Whether a
  democratic transition would take place or lead to
  a stable democracy is dependent upon many
  unmeasured variables or unexplained independent
  variables, which in turn is contingent upon the
  particular point in time and place or the
  confined contexts in which the interaction
  between elite strategic choices occurs.

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Some generalizations (Karl/Schmitter, pp.
277-282, Munck/Leff, p.345)

• Transplacements or transitions by pacts create
  political openings for elite competition,
  particularly generating compromise and
  settlements among political actors and crafting
  institutional rules for both old and new elites,
  and thus are the most likely to lead to a stable
  democracy or the most beneficial to democratic
  consolidation. But the success of this mode of
  transition requires time, patience, compromise,
  and skillful democratic crafting.
• The mode of transition has a significant impact
  on the form of transitional regime and
  post-transitional politics through its influence
  on the pattern of elite conflict, on the
  institutional rules crafted during the
  transition, and on key actors willingness to
  accept or reject the new rules of the game.

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The Impact of the mode of transition

• Most scholars agree that the modes of transition
  matters and have great impact on the prospects of
  democratic consolidation, because mode of
  transition produces different arrangements and
  different types of democratic regimes.
• For example, electoral laws or systems, once
  adopted, encourage some interests to enter the
  partisan politics and discourage others and will
  ultimately shape the formation of party systems,
  such as one-party system, two-party system, or
  multiparty system.
• Certain institutional arrangements could become
  patterns or norms that become difficult to change
  later.