Climate Change problems in Aral Sea basin ( example of Uzbekistan )

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Climate Change problems in Aral Sea basin(
example of Uzbekistan )
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• Uzbekistan is a transition economy country with
  a high rate of population growth (1.8)
• Of the total volume of consumption of primary
  energy sources, gas accounts for 80.8, oil
  products - for 15.8, coal - for 2.1, and
  hydropower - for 1.3 (1997)
• Over the recent decades the efficiency of energy
  use has decreased
• The country is located in an arid zone of Asia,
  with desert and semi-desert accounting for 70 of
  its territory agriculture is based on irrigated
  farming
• The country has already been experiencing
  conditions of a significant deficit of water
  resources, the Aral Sea crisis is the most acute
  problem

National Circumstances
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• Uzbekistan features very high level
  of antropogenic pressure on natural
  resources throughout all its
  territory
• nearly total volume of river runoff is utilized
  for irrigation
• degradation of cultivated land is observed
  (intensive salinization, all kinds of soil
  erosion) as a result of irrigation water deficit
  
• shrinking and degradation of natural pastures are
  taking place
• biodiversity is decreasing, whole ecosystems are
  damaged and many an inhabitation are destroyed
  (Amudarya delta)
• natural ecosystems and agriculture have become
  more vulnerable to climate changes

National Circumstances
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Direct and reciprocal relations among Climate
Change problems in Uzbekistan 
Humanactivity
Climate change
Declineof biodiversity
Land degradation
Reductionof water resources
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Antropogenic Aral Sea reduction in the past few
decades
U z b e k i s t a n
Irrigation zones
Nowadays the agriculture of Uzbekistan suffers
water scarcity Intensive runoff utilization for
irrigation is the reason for Aral Sea reduction
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Assessment of Vulnerability of River Watershed
to Natural Changes in climatic parameters shows a
decrease in the run-off at a rise of air
temperature
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Changes in water inflow into Charvak (?) and
Nurek (b) reservoirs in case of increase in air
temperature 1 air temperature norm 2
increase temperature on 2?C in October
-September 3 increase temperature on 2?C in
October -March
Under current conditions, water resources
shortages in Uzbekistan, even a small but stable
reduction of these resources presents a drastic
problem
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Assessment of climate change impact on water
resources of UzbekistanIntegral assessment of
flow formation of the Syrdarya and Amudarya
rivers has been obtained by use of a mathematical
model of river run-off formation at relevant
climatic scenarios.
Main conclusion Neither from a climatic
scenarios dont shown a increasing of water
resources in future.
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• Decrease of the run-off in the river basin at
  vegetation period reinforces a shortage of water
  resources for irrigation, that it have negative
  effect to crop productivity

norm
calculation
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Temperature in Uzbekistan
An air temperature rise will intensify the
process of ice degradation and ice reserve
reduction in mountain rivers
Observation data for 1968-1998 shows that the
Abramov Glacier has lost 21 m of its mass in
water equivalent ( 18 of mass ) To 2020 is
expected to lose additional 17 of its ice
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CHANGES OF THE PAMIR-ALAY GLACIATION EXTENT IN
THE 2nd PART OF XX CENTURY
For 1957 1980 Pamir-Alay glaciers has lost 113
??3 (19) of water reserve
Syrdarya R.
Amudarya R.
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• In the present time drought in region formulates
  due of precipitation deficit
• As example, 2000 in Uzbekistan was extremal
  drying year ( 68.6 from norm)
• In future a decrease of snow and ice share of
  water reserve arises an additional threat of
  resumption of exremal drying years
• Now important to research the timely frameworks
  of possible sustainable water resources shortage
  in Aral Sea Basin in accordance with new GHG
  emission scenarios

2000 year

??????????? ????????? ??????? ???? ??????? ( ??
????? 1961-1990??)
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Such factors as drought and human-induced
changes (the existing irrigation techniques and
the global warming) are inter-related, which fact
increases their negative impact
1940-1969
1970-1999
Change of annual temperature anomaly in
Uzbekistan
Changes in the Potential evaporation in
different 30-year periods (June - August)
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An assessment of changes in the Drought Index
has permitted to compare objectively aridity
tendencies in various parts of territory and in
different seasons
1940-1969

1970-1999

Changes in the annual values of the Drought
Index registered at the Chimbai (Aral Sea area)
and Tamdy ( Kyzylkum Desert)
Changes in the Potential evaporation in
different 30-year periods (September-November)
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• The following conclusions may be drawn based on
  the analysis of computed aridity indicators
  characteristic of the territory of Uzbekistan
• climate aridity is clearly manifested in the
  territory of Uzbekistan
• more obvious tendencies towards climate aridity
  are traced in summer and autumn, with a high
  temporal variability
• the largest share is contributed into the annual
  trend of aridity increase by the summer season.
• The exposed tendencies may intensify land
  degradation now in progress in the country,
  decreasing quality and quantity of water
  reserves

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Changes in crop yelds in Kapakalpastan
y/ymax
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rice
0,9
0,8
cotton
0,7
0,6
Ratio of yield in a certain year to maximum yield
0,5
0,4
0,3
0,2
maize
0,1
????
0
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Trend of crop yield designates by land
degradation Fluctuation of crop yield - by
climatic conditions
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Possible drop in yield () of cotton in case of
an increase in the number of high temperature
days
Provinces
Khorezm
Kapakalpakstan
Namangan
Jizzak
Syrdarya
Samarkand
Fergana
Andijan
Surkhandarya
Kashkadarya
Tashkent

Bukhara
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5
10
15
20
25
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• Most important from biological indicators of land
  degradation is vegetation cover
• In the connection wit it for separate regions of
  the country (as example, Karakalpakstan,including
  Aral Sea and Amudarya delta, and others) needs
  the following
• to study of contribution values of climate change
  to land salinity in Uzbekistan
• to conduct the complex researches of crop yield
  trends arising by water deficit, salinity soil
  and climate change
• to develop concrete recommendations on location
  of agriculture crop in accordance with climatic
  conditions in the future
• to estimate climate change impact to biodiversity
  reduction

For last 25 years in separate regions of
Uzbekistan is observed sustainable decrease of
desert pastures, especially in Aral Sea region.
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Observation data shows significant change in
steady dates of the hot (t gt25C) and cold
(t lt10C) periods
?????
Duration of hot period
????
90
70
50
30
10
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
It will be possible to increase energy
consumption for air conditioning but will
decrease it for heating ( Samarkand )
Observation period 1961-2000
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• Climate Change and vulnerability indicators
  observed in Uzbekistan
• Significant air temperature rise
• Changes of duration of cold and warm periods
• Increase of probability of thermal stress on
  human, animals plants
• Reduction of crop yield and pastures related with
  climate change and land degradation
• Shortage of water resources called by climate
  change and unsustainable water use for irrigation

• Outputs
• An observation data for last years shows that in
  present time in Uzbekistan is observed dangerous
  changes in climatic system
• Climate change negative consequences put up on
  extent problem of land degradation and water
  resources deficit

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In Uzbekistan adaptation options are related to
optimization of use of water and land resources

• Solving the water supply problem and securing
  guaranteed water availability at the source
• Reconstruction of water-distribution and
  irrigation systems
• Application of water-saving technologies in
  agriculture
• Introduction of drought-resistant high-yield crop
  varieties
• Reclamation of degraded land, including
  cultivated lands and natural pastures

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• Underestimation of existing threat may lead
  to strong
  negative consequences in the country
• For decision of climate change problem
  in Uzbekistan important
  the following
• authentic assessment past changes, improvement
  of climate
  observation system, development early
  warning system of dangerous
  weather events
  (drought, dust storms, strong
  precipitation and others)
• integrated assessment of vulnerability to climate
  change,
  development of adaptation measures
• Main and more difficult direction of climate
• change enabling activity are development
• and implementation of measures on
• greenhouse gases emission reduction

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