Climate Change problems in Aral Sea basin ( example of Uzbekistan ) - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Climate Change problems in Aral Sea basin ( example of Uzbekistan )

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Climate Change problems in Aral Sea basin ( example of Uzbekistan ) * * Uzbekistan is a transition economy country with a high rate of population growth (1.8%) Of the ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Climate Change problems in Aral Sea basin ( example of Uzbekistan )


1
Climate Change problems in Aral Sea basin(
example of Uzbekistan )
1
1
2
  • Uzbekistan is a transition economy country with
    a high rate of population growth (1.8)
  • Of the total volume of consumption of primary
    energy sources, gas accounts for 80.8, oil
    products - for 15.8, coal - for 2.1, and
    hydropower - for 1.3 (1997)
  • Over the recent decades the efficiency of energy
    use has decreased
  • The country is located in an arid zone of Asia,
    with desert and semi-desert accounting for 70 of
    its territory agriculture is based on irrigated
    farming
  • The country has already been experiencing
    conditions of a significant deficit of water
    resources, the Aral Sea crisis is the most acute
    problem

National Circumstances
2
3
  • Uzbekistan features very high level
    of antropogenic pressure on natural
    resources throughout all its
    territory
  • nearly total volume of river runoff is utilized
    for irrigation
  • degradation of cultivated land is observed
    (intensive salinization, all kinds of soil
    erosion) as a result of irrigation water deficit
  • shrinking and degradation of natural pastures are
    taking place
  • biodiversity is decreasing, whole ecosystems are
    damaged and many an inhabitation are destroyed
    (Amudarya delta)
  • natural ecosystems and agriculture have become
    more vulnerable to climate changes

National Circumstances
3
4
Direct and reciprocal relations among Climate
Change problems in Uzbekistan 
Humanactivity
Climate change
Declineof biodiversity
Land degradation
Reductionof water resources
4
5
Antropogenic Aral Sea reduction in the past few
decades
U z b e k i s t a n
Irrigation zones
Nowadays the agriculture of Uzbekistan suffers
water scarcity Intensive runoff utilization for
irrigation is the reason for Aral Sea reduction
5
6
Assessment of Vulnerability of River Watershed
to Natural Changes in climatic parameters shows a
decrease in the run-off at a rise of air
temperature
?)
?)
???
?)
Changes in water inflow into Charvak (?) and
Nurek (b) reservoirs in case of increase in air
temperature 1 air temperature norm 2
increase temperature on 2?C in October
-September 3 increase temperature on 2?C in
October -March
Under current conditions, water resources
shortages in Uzbekistan, even a small but stable
reduction of these resources presents a drastic
problem
6
7
Assessment of climate change impact on water
resources of UzbekistanIntegral assessment of
flow formation of the Syrdarya and Amudarya
rivers has been obtained by use of a mathematical
model of river run-off formation at relevant
climatic scenarios.
Main conclusion Neither from a climatic
scenarios dont shown a increasing of water
resources in future.
8
  • Decrease of the run-off in the river basin at
    vegetation period reinforces a shortage of water
    resources for irrigation, that it have negative
    effect to crop productivity

norm
calculation
8
9
Temperature in Uzbekistan
An air temperature rise will intensify the
process of ice degradation and ice reserve
reduction in mountain rivers
Observation data for 1968-1998 shows that the
Abramov Glacier has lost 21 m of its mass in
water equivalent ( 18 of mass ) To 2020 is
expected to lose additional 17 of its ice
9
10
CHANGES OF THE PAMIR-ALAY GLACIATION EXTENT IN
THE 2nd PART OF XX CENTURY
For 1957 1980 Pamir-Alay glaciers has lost 113
??3 (19) of water reserve
Syrdarya R.
Amudarya R.
10
11
  • In the present time drought in region formulates
    due of precipitation deficit
  • As example, 2000 in Uzbekistan was extremal
    drying year ( 68.6 from norm)
  • In future a decrease of snow and ice share of
    water reserve arises an additional threat of
    resumption of exremal drying years
  • Now important to research the timely frameworks
    of possible sustainable water resources shortage
    in Aral Sea Basin in accordance with new GHG
    emission scenarios

2000 year

??????????? ????????? ??????? ???? ??????? ( ??
????? 1961-1990??)
12
Such factors as drought and human-induced
changes (the existing irrigation techniques and
the global warming) are inter-related, which fact
increases their negative impact
1940-1969
1970-1999
Change of annual temperature anomaly in
Uzbekistan
Changes in the Potential evaporation in
different 30-year periods (June - August)
12
13
An assessment of changes in the Drought Index
has permitted to compare objectively aridity
tendencies in various parts of territory and in
different seasons
1940-1969

1970-1999

Changes in the annual values of the Drought
Index registered at the Chimbai (Aral Sea area)
and Tamdy ( Kyzylkum Desert)
Changes in the Potential evaporation in
different 30-year periods (September-November)
13
14
  • The following conclusions may be drawn based on
    the analysis of computed aridity indicators
    characteristic of the territory of Uzbekistan
  • climate aridity is clearly manifested in the
    territory of Uzbekistan
  • more obvious tendencies towards climate aridity
    are traced in summer and autumn, with a high
    temporal variability
  • the largest share is contributed into the annual
    trend of aridity increase by the summer season.
  • The exposed tendencies may intensify land
    degradation now in progress in the country,
    decreasing quality and quantity of water
    reserves

14
15
Changes in crop yelds in Kapakalpastan
y/ymax
1
rice
0,9
0,8
cotton
0,7
0,6
Ratio of yield in a certain year to maximum yield
0,5
0,4
0,3
0,2
maize
0,1
????
0
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
Trend of crop yield designates by land
degradation Fluctuation of crop yield - by
climatic conditions
15
16
Possible drop in yield () of cotton in case of
an increase in the number of high temperature
days
Provinces
Khorezm
Kapakalpakstan
Namangan
Jizzak
Syrdarya
Samarkand
Fergana
Andijan
Surkhandarya
Kashkadarya
Tashkent

Bukhara
0
5
10
15
20
25
16
17
  • Most important from biological indicators of land
    degradation is vegetation cover
  • In the connection wit it for separate regions of
    the country (as example, Karakalpakstan,including
    Aral Sea and Amudarya delta, and others) needs
    the following
  • to study of contribution values of climate change
    to land salinity in Uzbekistan
  • to conduct the complex researches of crop yield
    trends arising by water deficit, salinity soil
    and climate change
  • to develop concrete recommendations on location
    of agriculture crop in accordance with climatic
    conditions in the future
  • to estimate climate change impact to biodiversity
    reduction

For last 25 years in separate regions of
Uzbekistan is observed sustainable decrease of
desert pastures, especially in Aral Sea region.
17
18
Observation data shows significant change in
steady dates of the hot (t gt25C) and cold
(t lt10C) periods
?????
Duration of hot period
????
90
70
50
30
10
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
It will be possible to increase energy
consumption for air conditioning but will
decrease it for heating ( Samarkand )
Observation period 1961-2000
18

19
  • Climate Change and vulnerability indicators
    observed in Uzbekistan
  • Significant air temperature rise
  • Changes of duration of cold and warm periods
  • Increase of probability of thermal stress on
    human, animals plants
  • Reduction of crop yield and pastures related with
    climate change and land degradation
  • Shortage of water resources called by climate
    change and unsustainable water use for irrigation
  • Outputs
  • An observation data for last years shows that in
    present time in Uzbekistan is observed dangerous
    changes in climatic system
  • Climate change negative consequences put up on
    extent problem of land degradation and water
    resources deficit

19
20
In Uzbekistan adaptation options are related to
optimization of use of water and land resources
  • Solving the water supply problem and securing
    guaranteed water availability at the source
  • Reconstruction of water-distribution and
    irrigation systems
  • Application of water-saving technologies in
    agriculture
  • Introduction of drought-resistant high-yield crop
    varieties
  • Reclamation of degraded land, including
    cultivated lands and natural pastures

20
21
  • Underestimation of existing threat may lead
    to strong
    negative consequences in the country
  • For decision of climate change problem
    in Uzbekistan important
    the following
  • authentic assessment past changes, improvement
    of climate
    observation system, development early
    warning system of dangerous
    weather events
    (drought, dust storms, strong
    precipitation and others)
  • integrated assessment of vulnerability to climate
    change,
    development of adaptation measures
  • Main and more difficult direction of climate
  • change enabling activity are development
  • and implementation of measures on
  • greenhouse gases emission reduction

21
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