Analysis of the hydrophysical processes of the Aral sea dessicationon on the basis of the historical data and numerical modelling Ac. O.F.Vasiliev, Prof. V.I.Kuzin, Prof. V.I.Kvon - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Analysis of the hydrophysical processes of the Aral sea dessicationon on the basis of the historical data and numerical modelling Ac. O.F.Vasiliev, Prof. V.I.Kuzin, Prof. V.I.Kvon

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Analysis of the hydrophysical processes of the Aral sea dessicationon on the basis of the historical data and numerical modelling Ac. O.F.Vasiliev, Prof. V.I.Kuzin, – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Analysis of the hydrophysical processes of the Aral sea dessicationon on the basis of the historical data and numerical modelling Ac. O.F.Vasiliev, Prof. V.I.Kuzin, Prof. V.I.Kvon


1
Analysis of the hydrophysical processes of the
Aral sea dessicationon on the basis of the
historical data and numerical modellingAc.
O.F.Vasiliev, Prof. V.I.Kuzin, Prof. V.I.Kvon
  • Institute of Water Environmental Problems
  • Institute of Computational Mathematics
    Mathematical Geophysics
  • SD RAS, Novosibirsk

2
PROJECT REBASOWS, INTAS 01-0511 The
rehabilitation of ecosystem and bioproductivity
of part water body of the Aral Sea under
conditions of water scarcity
  • Research Goal
  • Forecast of the future Aral Sea water and salt
    balance under different scenarios of water inflow
    to the Aral coastal zone
  • Definition of sustainable ecological profile of
    close water body and selection of the strategy of
    possible ecosystem, biodiversity and
    bioproductivity restoration in the part of the
    Aral Sea
  • Teams
  • Austria (2), Uzbekistan (2), Russia (1)

3
Amu Darya, Syr Darya basins
4
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5
Hydrological changes in the Aral
Sea basin
6
Aral Sea basin runoff and Aral Sea Inflow
(1989 2000)
7
Satellite image of the Amu-Darja, Syr-Darja
Dealtas ( Resurs-01, 1995)
8
Environment The Aral Sea was once the fourth
biggest inland sea in the world. With abundant
fish resources, and a busy shipping trade between
its northern port of Aralsk and the river ports
of the Amu-Darja, some as far distant as
Tajikistan, the Sea provided a healthy livelihood
for several hundred thousand people. The Aral Sea
surface was 66,100 square kilometers with an
average depth of 16,1 meters and a maximum depth
of 68 meters. Salt content was 10 g/l. Then in
the sixties, the flow of water into the Sea began
to drop alarmingly. Upstream irrigation schemes,
for the growing of rice and cotton, consumed like
a sponge more than 90 per cent of the natural
flow of water from the Tian Shan mountains. As a
result the Sea's surface area declined. 27,000
square kilometers of former sea bottom became dry
surface. About 80 of water volume was lost. The
sea level declined 14 meters. Salt concentration
increased. Today, an estimated 200,000 tones of
salt and sand are being carried away by wind and
discharged within a radius of 300 km every day.
Because of the dying out of the sea as well as
the usage of large areas for military and space
centers, important climatic changes have taken
place. During the last ten years these changes
have become especially visible. The salt polluted
air is carried away by the wind from the now
dried-up salt lakes and former sea bottom
9
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10
Image of the Aral Sea region from the satellite,
1998
11
Irrigation net of the Amu Darja (8000 channels
collectors)
12
Land use in the Amu Darja delta (cotton-yellow,
rise-green)
13
Phenology in the Amu-Darja Delta
14
Bathymetry of the Aral Sea, 1960, 1997
15
Main events      1960 - intensification of the
Amu Darja, Syr Darja water use for irrigation
purposes      1989 - separation of the Northern
and Central Aral basins      2000 - connection
of the Lazarev, Vozrogdenija islands with
mainland and formation of single Peninsula which
separate the Western (deep) and Eastern (shallow)
basins with connection only in the northern
part Resulting - Aral sea level height
decreased from 53 m to 31.5 m (Baltic
system) - Aral Sea lost 80 of water
volume 80 of sea surface - salinity
increased from 10 to 20-50 g/l. Possible Ways
for rehabilitation of the Aral Sea -Reducing
the 70 of Amy Darja water amount for irrigation
which will increase the Aral Sea level to 38.5 m
(unrealistic) - Separation of the Western and
Eastern parts and keep only one of them with
reducing 30-40 water for irrigation.
16
Chronology of the dessication of the Aral Sea
17
The dessication of the Aral sea from 1995 to
1996 1995 1996 Difference
18
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19
Concequences of the Aral Sea dessication
20
Health The drying-up of the Sea, and the salt
and dust laden air, have had a damaging effect on
the health of the people, and the animal and
plant life as well. The introduction of
pesticides into the rice and cotton fields, and
the seepage of the residues back into the rivers,
has heavily contaminated the water for those
communities living along the banks of the rivers
flowing into the Sea. This has further aggravated
people's health. Diseases like anemia, cancer and
tuberculosis, and allergies are frequent. Many
children are born with defects. Also in the years
since the first project was implemented, there
has been a continued increase in Typhoid fever,
viral hepatitis, TB, and throat cancer in many
areas as high as three times the national
average. All of these complaints can be
attributed either to the reduction in quality and
quantity of water resulting from the drying up of
the Aral Sea of the spread of toxic dusts and
deterioration of the regional climate resulting
from the Aral Sea disaster.
21
Climatic temperature 1960-1990, January (top),
June (bottom)
22
International cooperation and projects 
- Climatic changes in Aral Sea region -
Copernicus Grant (Uzbekistan, Bulgaria,
Germany, Ukraine) - Development of a GIS for
optimization of land and water use in the
Amu-Darja Delta (sponsored by NATO  Science
Division Affairs) - Program of developing of
water resources allocation tools for use in the
Aral Sea basin - Center for Research in Water
Recourses of Texas University in Austin (funded
by US Agency for International Development) -
Central Asia Center (John Hopkins)
23
Central Asia Regional Water, Environment and
Energy Agreements   Framework Agreements       
Agreement Between the Republic of Kazakhstan ,
the Republic of Kirgyzstan, the Republic of
Uzbekistan, the Republic of Tajikistan and
Turkmenistan On Cooperation in the Field of Joint
Water Resources Management and Conservation of
Interstate Sources
24
Types of models which are planning to use
  • Integral Aral Sea models (bulk models on the
    basis of the conservation lows for mass and
    salt)
  • Quasi-two dimensional model integrated by the
    width of the basin (x-z coordinate)
  • Tree dimensional thermo-hydrodynamic model
  • Chemical processes integrated model
  • Biological model,
  • Coupled regional climatic Central Asia
    atmosphere-Aral Sea model.

25
Simulation of the Amu Darja inflow for 20 years
km3 (top), Simulation of the Amu Darja
mineralization g/l (bottom)
26
Modeling of hydrodynamic, hydrophysical and
hydrochemical processes The 3D ICMMG Aral Sea
circulation model There are two versions of the
Aral Sea circulation model developed in the
Laboratory of the Mathematical Modeling of the
Hydrosphere of ICMMG SD RAS. The models differ
in the method of the vertical levels
distribution the sigma-coordinate model and the
z-coordinate model. The authors of the models
are Prof. V.I.Kuzin, Dr. E.N.Golubeva. An
essential difference in the bottom relief of the
Western and Eastern parts of the Aral Sea causes
some difficulties in the simulation with the
unique version of the vertical grid. Thus, in the
Western Part of the Sea, z-coordinate multilevel
model is more preferable. The sigma-coordinate
model will be used for the Eastern Part. In the
present version of the model, two parts have no
connection between themselves. At the first
stage, z-coordinate version of the model was
adopted for the Western Part of the Aral Sea what
is in agreement with one of the scenarios of the
project. The numerical model has a horizontal
grid with 500500 m resolution. The vertical
non-uniform grid is used (35 levels for the
maximum depth).
27
General features of the models are as
follows        Mathematical model is based on
the complete primitive nonlinear equations of
the thermo-hydrodynamics of the ocean       
Temperature and salinity distributions are
calculated        The models have a possibility
to include the calculation of pollutants      
The interaction with the atmosphere is realized
via the upper mixed layer with the possibility to
include the ice formation        The models
have a possibility to include inflows and
outflows from the basin       The models are
based on a combination of the finite element and
splitting methods        The triangulated
quasi-regular B-grid is used in the models, which
enables one to easily change the configuration of
basin        The models differ in the method
of the vertical levels distribution the
sigma-coordinate model and the z-coordinate
model. T
28
Aral Sea bathymetry At the level 31.5 m (left),
Western Part (right)
29
Lefta)The vertical cross-section of the Aral
Sea along the latitude?) schematic
representation of the sigma-coordinate grid ?)
schematic representation of z-grid.The depth is
given in meters.Preliminary experiment. Velocity
field at a depth of 3 m (center), 9 m (right).
30
Conclusions
  • Processes in the Aral Sea region during the last
    40 years is one of the most drastic example of of
    the possible consequence of man-induced
    environmental changes
  • The Aral Sea dessication changed the regional
    climate and initiate the problems in ecology,
    agriculture, fishery, industry, health and social
    conditions
  • For the rehabilitation of the Aral Sea the level
    should be increased from 31.5 m to 38.5 m, or
    western and Eastern basins should be kept
    separately
  • Recommendation to Central Asia Governments can be
    done on the basis of the use of the
    multi-objective water resource models of
    different levels integral Aral Sea models,
    hydrological optimization models, quasi-2D
    models, 3D Aral Sea models, coupled Aral region
    regional climatic-sea models, biological models
    etc.
  • Solution of the Aral Sea problem can be found
    only on the basis of the Agreement on the Water
    Resources Management between the Central Asia
    States.
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