Climate Change Scenario Planning: a Tool for Managing Resources in an Era of Uncertainty

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Climate Change Scenario Planning
A Tool for Managing Resources in an Era of
Uncertainty
Kaloko-Honokohau NHP
Joshua Tree National Park
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Scenario Planning as part of the Planning Toolkit
Figure from Peterson et al. Conservation
Biology Volume 17, No. 2, April 2003
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Scenario Planning

• Scenarios Are
• A tool for long-term strategic planning
• Compelling narratives of alternative environments
  in which decisions may be played out
• Coherent, internally consistent, and plausible

• Scenarios Are Not
• Predictions or Forecasts
• A method for arriving at the most likely future

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One Dimensional vs Scenario Planning
One-Dimensional Planning
Outcomes
A
B
C
D
Scenario Planning
Possible Futures
A
Elements Common to A-B
Elements Common to A-C
B
Elements Common to A-D
C
D
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Examples of Scenario Exercises Shell Oil

• Early 1970s, Shell Oil used scenarios for
  long-term planning. Allowed them to be prepared
  for the 1970s oil crisis.

Scenario planning is a discipline for
rediscovering the original entrepreneurial power
of creative foresight in contexts of accelerated
change, greater complexity, and genuine
uncertainty. Pierre Wack, Royal Dutch/Shell,
1984
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Examples of Scenario Exercises Tucson Water
Southwest Surface Water Availability (P-E)
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Examples of Scenario Exercises Tucson Water
Some direct Treatment of CO River water
Industry standard
Surface enhancement
Public accepts quality
Public pays for better quality
Recharge Only
Enhanced recharge
No direct Treatment of CO River water
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Climate Change Scenario Planning Workshop held
Nov 13-14, 2007

• Goals
• Challenge assumptions about the future
• Foster strategic thinking about how to respond in
  different situations
• Gain insight into how to manage change and plan
  in the face of uncertainty

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Scenario Planning An Integration of Science and
Management
Analyze Internal Dynamics
Build Test Scenarios
Policy Screening
Define Focal Question
List External Drivers
Decision makers, scientists, topical experts
Decision makers
Scientists, topical experts

• Types of Scenarios ? different purposes

Strategic ? testing concepts and
models Exploratory ? moving into the future,
e.g., by extending past trends, considering
contingencies Anticipatory ? aiming toward
preferred futures and avoiding nightmares
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Summer Soaker Current Mojave Desert gt 900
meters in elevation
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Summer Soaker Plausible future Mojave Desert gt
1100 meters in elevation
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Summer Soaker Potential loss of transitional
environments
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When it rains, it pours Fires, 1967-2006
Approx. 40,000 acres burned
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When it rains, it pours Plausible future fires
Approx. 600,000 acres burned
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Climate Change Coming to a Park Near You!
Time to make a plan
Slide courtesy of Jill Baron, USGS
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NPS PLANNING FRAMEWORK
WHY
WHAT
HOW
GMP
Foundation
Program Mgmt Plans RSS
Strategic Plan
Implementation Plans
Annual Performance Plan and Report
LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
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Foundation Document
Desired Conditions
Goals
GMP
Goal A
Adaptive Management
NPS PLANNING FRAMEWORK linking to the science
Indicator Target Value
Monitor
Current Condition
Strategies
Vital Signs Monitoring
Watershed Condition Assessments
Baseline Water Quality Reports
Current Condition vs Target Value
Climate Change