Climate change and severe weather Improving business resilience

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Climate change and severe weatherImproving
business resilience
Becca Eastman/Alex Webb South West Climate Change
Impacts Partnership
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Presentation Outline

• The Science of Climate Change
• A brief overview
• 2. Future Climate Change and its Impact
• What can the SW expect?
• 3. The Business Case
• Why climate change matters to business
• 4. Building Resilience
• How can businesses prepare?

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• The Science of Climate Change
• A brief overview

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Weather vs. Climate

• Climate
• the average weather in a locality over a 30
  year period
• Weather
• what it is doing outside right now

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Temperature Increase
Hadley Centre/UEA
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Natural factors cannot explain recent warming
1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5
Observed Model simulation
Temperature change ºC
1850 1900
1950
2000
Source Hadley Centre for Climate Predication and
Research
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Recent warming can be simulated when manmade
factors are included
1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5
Observed Model simulation
Temperature change ºC
1850 1900
1950
2000
Source Hadley Centre for Climate Predication and
Research
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Some change is inevitable
High emissions Medium-High Medium-Low Low
emissions
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• Mitigation
• reducing our emissions of greenhouse gases, such
  as carbon dioxide (CO2), through energy
  efficiency and alternative forms of transport and
  energy

• Adaptation
• coping with the unavoidable impacts of climate
  change

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• Future Climate Change and its Impact
• What can the SW expect?

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Increased average summer temp.
But the temperature on the hottest day of the
year could increase by up to 10ºC
South-West England central estimate Medium
emissions
Same as the 2003 heat wave
The change for the 2080s is very unlikely to be
less than 2.1ºC and very unlikely to be more than
6.4ºC (Note the difference between climate at
2000 and that of the last Ice Age was only 6C).
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Decreased summer precipitation
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Increased winter precipitation
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Relative sea level rise
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More frequent and intense severe weather events
Contribution to England Wales winter
precipitation from extreme 3-day events
Met Office Hadley Centre
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Regional Adaptation Response

• The South West Climate Change Impacts
  Partnership (SWCCIP) focuses on climate change
  impacts and adaptation. Our mission is
• To help the South West Region of England to adapt
  sustainably to the impacts of climate change

• SWCCIP is a regional partnership funded by

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Warming to the Idea

• Scoping study set out to
• Describe climate change scenarios for the SW
• Identify the likely impacts
• Suggest actions needed to respond

www.oursouthwest.com/climate
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• The Business Case
• Why climate change matters to business

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(No Transcript)
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The SW is vulnerable to the existing climate
Boscastle, 16th August, 2004 Flash Flooding

• 58 properties were flooded, 4 business
  properties were demolished
• 7 Helicopters airlifted 100 people
• 29 out of the 31 Cornwall County Fire Brigade
  Stations were involved
• Infrastructure damage up to 2 million
• Tourist centre out of action

Photo by Pam Durrant
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Gloucestershire floods 2007

• 573 Gloucestershire business properties directly
  affected (est. only 80 insured)
• 350 000 without water for up to 17 days
• 42 000 without power for 42 hours
• 10 000 people trapped on M5 railways
• 14.3M - emergency repair response costs for
  Gloucestershire businesses
• Businesses out of action for months!
• (Pitt Review, 2008)

Slad Road, Stroud (Bernard Wakefield-Heath)
http//www.bbc.co.uk/gloucestershire
http//news.bbc.co.uk 23.7.07
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The Business Case Insurance
In the SW, a 2C rise could increase annual
insured flood losses by 19 - leading to a
potential pricing increase of up to 16. A 4C
rise could increase losses by 29 - leading to a
potential pricing increase of up to 27. The
Financial Risks of Climate Change (ABI, 2009)

• Key messages for businesses
• Climate adaptation is likely to become part of
  insurance criteria
• Well prepared businesses could save money on
  premiums
• Unprepared businesses may not secure insurance
  cover

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The Business Case Reputation

• Growing awareness
• 69 cite flooding as one of the most common
  effects of climate change
• Businesses need to show they care and are ahead
  of the game

• Responsible business
• - Reputation as employer
• - Reputation to customers

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Challenges for business

• Business continuity (12 days lost/year/company)
• Flood / storm / subsidence damage to buildings
• Disruption to infrastructure
• Insurance and Recovery costs
• More need for summer cooling
• Health and Safety implications
• - Increased travel risks
• - Heat stress to staff and customers

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Opportunities for business

• New market opportunities goods and services
• Changing agricultural crops
• Longer tourist season
• Recreation and leisure opportunities
• Lower winter heating costs

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• Avoiding unexpected costs
• Business interruption
• Damage costs
• Increased insurance premiums
• Future regulation, litigation or liabilities
• Exploiting opportunities
• Expanding / new markets due to changing customer
  demands
• Reputation, being a market leader

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• Building Resilience
• How can businesses prepare?

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Prepare to be Resilient

• All good businesses are flexible and have the
  ability to respond quickly to any circumstance
  whether its
• the recession
• market changes
• climate change

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Changing Climate Changing Business DVD

• A short film featuring 11 tourism businesses in
  the SW who are taking action to adapt to climate
  change

A full 20 minute version and a 6 minute summary
version available at www.swtourism.org.uk/our-str
ategic-work/sustainability-work/adapting-to-a-chan
ging-climate/
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Flood Case Study Old Mill Hotel, Bath

• Temporary flood boards
• Tanked the underneath of the restaurant i.e.
  sealed it
• Management training

• The laundry store was moved from the basement
• Close contact is kept with the Environment
  Agency to monitor the risk
• Catering facilities and staff are prepared -
  able to move a second kitchen and function
  room upstairs

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Drought Case Study High Post Golf Club

• Plan for future climate change and dont be
  frightened to bang the drum and get some
  publicity for being pro-active its usually
  free marketing!
• Peter Hickling, High Post manager

• Drought-resistant grasses
• Water allocation process uses less water
• Likelihood of disease reduced less fungicide
  needed
• Increased reputation recognised as on course
  for sustainability
• Member support gained through open forum

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Adaptation Risk Management
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(No Transcript)
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Considering climate impacts on business areas

• Markets
• Logistics
• Process
• People
• Premises
• Finance
• Management responses

Climate change provides both challenge and
opportunity
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Finance implications for investment, insurance,
reputation

• Insurance issues
• increased or variable premiums
• vulnerable locations
• Liabilities
• Costs
• - retrofitting existing buildings and equipment
  could be expensive

• Premises impacts on construction, maintenance
  facilities management
• Building fabric, structure and grounds
  vulnerable to wind, rain, storm, subsidence
• Internal environment less winter heating/more
  summer cooling

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Preparing for flooding
www.environment-agency.gov.uk
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Tools to help businesses adapt

• Caravan and campsite flood risk management pack
• Business Areas Climate Impacts Assessment Tool
• Changing Climate Changing
• Business DVD
• Online toolkit for tourism businesses
  www.climateprepared.com
• Case Studies more available at
• www.oursouthwest.com/climate/casestudies

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Key Messages

• Many businesses have not adapted to current
  weather variability
• Opportunities as well as threats
• Plan proactively
• Climate change is a business risk like any other